How Long Would You Like to Live? A 25-year Prospective Observation of the Association Between Desired Longevity and Mortality
Background: Desired longevity represents how strongly people esteem possible extensions of their own lifetime. The association between desired longevity and mortality risk has been reported in only one prospective study, which examined a small sample of older participants. We aimed to examine the hy...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Japan Epidemiological Association
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Journal of Epidemiology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jea/33/9/33_JE20210493/_pdf |
| _version_ | 1797690110741839872 |
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| author | Yuta Yokokawa Toshimasa Sone Sanae Matsuyama Yukai Lu Yumi Sugawara Akira Fukao Ichiro Tsuji |
| author_facet | Yuta Yokokawa Toshimasa Sone Sanae Matsuyama Yukai Lu Yumi Sugawara Akira Fukao Ichiro Tsuji |
| author_sort | Yuta Yokokawa |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Desired longevity represents how strongly people esteem possible extensions of their own lifetime. The association between desired longevity and mortality risk has been reported in only one prospective study, which examined a small sample of older participants. We aimed to examine the hypothesis that desired longevity at middle-age predicted long-term survival. Methods: In the prospective cohort study, residents aged 40–64 years were asked how long they would like to live and asked to choose one from three options: longer than, as long as, or shorter than the life expectancy. We used Cox proportional hazards model to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality according to the three groups for desired longevity, treating the “longer than” group as the reference. We conducted mediation analysis to investigate the mechanism for the association between desired longevity and mortality. Results: We recruited 39,902 residents to the study. Risk of all-cause mortality was significantly higher in the “shorter than” group (HR 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04–1.21). The association was independent of sex, age, marital status, education, medical history, and health status. Regarding cause of death, mortality risk of cancer (HR 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00–1.29) and suicide (HR 2.15; 95% CI, 1.37–3.38) were also higher in the “shorter than” group. The unhealthy lifestyle mediated this association with all-cause mortality by 30.4%. Conclusion: Shorter desired longevity was significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, and mortality from cancer and suicide. Lifestyle behaviors particularly mediated this association. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T01:54:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-07061c917af548ffb8863191b19d9b8a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0917-5040 1349-9092 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T01:54:51Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Japan Epidemiological Association |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Epidemiology |
| spelling | doaj.art-07061c917af548ffb8863191b19d9b8a2023-09-08T05:52:42ZengJapan Epidemiological AssociationJournal of Epidemiology0917-50401349-90922023-09-0133946447010.2188/jea.JE20210493How Long Would You Like to Live? A 25-year Prospective Observation of the Association Between Desired Longevity and MortalityYuta Yokokawa0Toshimasa Sone1Sanae Matsuyama2Yukai Lu3Yumi Sugawara4Akira Fukao5Ichiro Tsuji6Division of Epidemiology, Department of Health Informatics and Public Health, Tohoku University School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, JapanDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Health Informatics and Public Health, Tohoku University School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, JapanDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Health Informatics and Public Health, Tohoku University School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, JapanDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Health Informatics and Public Health, Tohoku University School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, JapanDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Health Informatics and Public Health, Tohoku University School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, JapanMiyagi Cancer Society, Sendai, JapanDivision of Epidemiology, Department of Health Informatics and Public Health, Tohoku University School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, JapanBackground: Desired longevity represents how strongly people esteem possible extensions of their own lifetime. The association between desired longevity and mortality risk has been reported in only one prospective study, which examined a small sample of older participants. We aimed to examine the hypothesis that desired longevity at middle-age predicted long-term survival. Methods: In the prospective cohort study, residents aged 40–64 years were asked how long they would like to live and asked to choose one from three options: longer than, as long as, or shorter than the life expectancy. We used Cox proportional hazards model to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality according to the three groups for desired longevity, treating the “longer than” group as the reference. We conducted mediation analysis to investigate the mechanism for the association between desired longevity and mortality. Results: We recruited 39,902 residents to the study. Risk of all-cause mortality was significantly higher in the “shorter than” group (HR 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04–1.21). The association was independent of sex, age, marital status, education, medical history, and health status. Regarding cause of death, mortality risk of cancer (HR 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00–1.29) and suicide (HR 2.15; 95% CI, 1.37–3.38) were also higher in the “shorter than” group. The unhealthy lifestyle mediated this association with all-cause mortality by 30.4%. Conclusion: Shorter desired longevity was significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, and mortality from cancer and suicide. Lifestyle behaviors particularly mediated this association.https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jea/33/9/33_JE20210493/_pdfdesired longevitylifestyle behaviorsmediation analysis |
| spellingShingle | Yuta Yokokawa Toshimasa Sone Sanae Matsuyama Yukai Lu Yumi Sugawara Akira Fukao Ichiro Tsuji How Long Would You Like to Live? A 25-year Prospective Observation of the Association Between Desired Longevity and Mortality Journal of Epidemiology desired longevity lifestyle behaviors mediation analysis |
| title | How Long Would You Like to Live? A 25-year Prospective Observation of the Association Between Desired Longevity and Mortality |
| title_full | How Long Would You Like to Live? A 25-year Prospective Observation of the Association Between Desired Longevity and Mortality |
| title_fullStr | How Long Would You Like to Live? A 25-year Prospective Observation of the Association Between Desired Longevity and Mortality |
| title_full_unstemmed | How Long Would You Like to Live? A 25-year Prospective Observation of the Association Between Desired Longevity and Mortality |
| title_short | How Long Would You Like to Live? A 25-year Prospective Observation of the Association Between Desired Longevity and Mortality |
| title_sort | how long would you like to live a 25 year prospective observation of the association between desired longevity and mortality |
| topic | desired longevity lifestyle behaviors mediation analysis |
| url | https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jea/33/9/33_JE20210493/_pdf |
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