Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios
Dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease whose distribution is linked to the presence of culicid mosquitoes. Spain and Portugal are considered endemic countries; however, the distribution of dirofilariosis is not uniform. Our aim was to develop a more accurate risk model of dirofilariosis t...
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MDPI AG
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Animals |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/13/11/1764 |
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| author | Iván Rodríguez-Escolar Ricardo E. Hernández-Lambraño José Ángel Sánchez-Agudo Manuel Collado Patricia Pérez-Pérez Rodrigo Morchón |
| author_facet | Iván Rodríguez-Escolar Ricardo E. Hernández-Lambraño José Ángel Sánchez-Agudo Manuel Collado Patricia Pérez-Pérez Rodrigo Morchón |
| author_sort | Iván Rodríguez-Escolar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease whose distribution is linked to the presence of culicid mosquitoes. Spain and Portugal are considered endemic countries; however, the distribution of dirofilariosis is not uniform. Our aim was to develop a more accurate risk model of dirofilariosis transmission for the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain). To do this, we used a set of key variables related to parasite transmission: the potential distribution of suitable habitats for <i>Culex pipiens</i> calculated via an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of <i>Dirofilaria</i> spp. generations. The resulting model was validated with the prevalence and geolocation of <i>D. immitis</i>-infected dogs from all provinces and districts. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. A quantitative estimate of the risk of infection by <i>Dirofilaria</i> spp. was obtained at a resolution of 1 km<sup>2</sup>. The entire analyzed territory was susceptible to contact with the parasite. The highest risk of infection was found throughout the eastern coastal strip and the south of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, as well as in the areas surrounding the basins of the main rivers, and the lowest risk was located in the higher-altitude areas. We found a robust and positive relationship between the risk of dirofilariosis and the observed prevalence of infested dogs in the study area (β ± SE = 3.32 ± 1.43 <i>p</i> < 0.05). In 2080, the percentage of territory gain for <i>Cx. pipiens</i> will increase to 49.98%, which will increase the risk of infection. This new model provides a high predictive value for the current and predicted presence and risk and can serve as a tool for the management and control of dirofilariosis. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:12:07Z |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-2615 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T03:12:07Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Animals |
| spelling | doaj.art-070898f526b74ecab4b75ddfbec67dcf2023-11-18T07:29:25ZengMDPI AGAnimals2076-26152023-05-011311176410.3390/ani13111764Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change ScenariosIván Rodríguez-Escolar0Ricardo E. Hernández-Lambraño1José Ángel Sánchez-Agudo2Manuel Collado3Patricia Pérez-Pérez4Rodrigo Morchón5Zoonotic Diseases and One Health GIR, Biomedical Research Institute of Salamanca-Research Centre for Tropical Diseases University of Salamanca (IBSAL-CIETUS), Faculty of Pharmacy, Campus Miguel Unamuno, University of Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, SpainBiodiversity, Human Diversity and Conservation Biology Research Group, Campus Miguel Unamuno, University of Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, SpainBiodiversity, Human Diversity and Conservation Biology Research Group, Campus Miguel Unamuno, University of Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, SpainZoonotic Diseases and One Health GIR, Biomedical Research Institute of Salamanca-Research Centre for Tropical Diseases University of Salamanca (IBSAL-CIETUS), Faculty of Pharmacy, Campus Miguel Unamuno, University of Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, SpainZoonotic Diseases and One Health GIR, Biomedical Research Institute of Salamanca-Research Centre for Tropical Diseases University of Salamanca (IBSAL-CIETUS), Faculty of Pharmacy, Campus Miguel Unamuno, University of Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, SpainZoonotic Diseases and One Health GIR, Biomedical Research Institute of Salamanca-Research Centre for Tropical Diseases University of Salamanca (IBSAL-CIETUS), Faculty of Pharmacy, Campus Miguel Unamuno, University of Salamanca, 37007 Salamanca, SpainDirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease whose distribution is linked to the presence of culicid mosquitoes. Spain and Portugal are considered endemic countries; however, the distribution of dirofilariosis is not uniform. Our aim was to develop a more accurate risk model of dirofilariosis transmission for the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain). To do this, we used a set of key variables related to parasite transmission: the potential distribution of suitable habitats for <i>Culex pipiens</i> calculated via an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of <i>Dirofilaria</i> spp. generations. The resulting model was validated with the prevalence and geolocation of <i>D. immitis</i>-infected dogs from all provinces and districts. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. A quantitative estimate of the risk of infection by <i>Dirofilaria</i> spp. was obtained at a resolution of 1 km<sup>2</sup>. The entire analyzed territory was susceptible to contact with the parasite. The highest risk of infection was found throughout the eastern coastal strip and the south of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, as well as in the areas surrounding the basins of the main rivers, and the lowest risk was located in the higher-altitude areas. We found a robust and positive relationship between the risk of dirofilariosis and the observed prevalence of infested dogs in the study area (β ± SE = 3.32 ± 1.43 <i>p</i> < 0.05). In 2080, the percentage of territory gain for <i>Cx. pipiens</i> will increase to 49.98%, which will increase the risk of infection. This new model provides a high predictive value for the current and predicted presence and risk and can serve as a tool for the management and control of dirofilariosis.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/13/11/1764ecological niche modelforward projection<i>Dirofilaria</i> spp.<i>Culex pipiens</i>SpainPortugal |
| spellingShingle | Iván Rodríguez-Escolar Ricardo E. Hernández-Lambraño José Ángel Sánchez-Agudo Manuel Collado Patricia Pérez-Pérez Rodrigo Morchón Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios Animals ecological niche model forward projection <i>Dirofilaria</i> spp. <i>Culex pipiens</i> Spain Portugal |
| title | Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full | Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_short | Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_sort | current risk of dirofilariosis transmission in the iberian peninsula spain and portugal and the balearic islands spain and its future projection under climate change scenarios |
| topic | ecological niche model forward projection <i>Dirofilaria</i> spp. <i>Culex pipiens</i> Spain Portugal |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/13/11/1764 |
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