Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a method of meeting climate objectives, such as reduced globally averaged surface temperatures. However, because of incomplete understanding of the effects of geoengineering on the climate system, its implementation would be in the presence of substantial un...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044006 |
| _version_ | 1797747903993741312 |
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| author | Ben Kravitz Douglas G MacMartin David T Leedal Philip J Rasch Andrew J Jarvis |
| author_facet | Ben Kravitz Douglas G MacMartin David T Leedal Philip J Rasch Andrew J Jarvis |
| author_sort | Ben Kravitz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a method of meeting climate objectives, such as reduced globally averaged surface temperatures. However, because of incomplete understanding of the effects of geoengineering on the climate system, its implementation would be in the presence of substantial uncertainties. In our study, we use two fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models: one in which the geoengineering strategy is designed, and one in which geoengineering is implemented (a real-world proxy). We show that regularly adjusting the amount of solar geoengineering in response to departures of the observed global mean climate state from the predetermined objective (sequential decision making; an explicit feedback approach) can manage uncertainties and result in achievement of the climate objective in both the design model and the real-world proxy. This approach results in substantially less error in meeting global climate objectives than using a predetermined time series of how much geoengineering to use, especially if the estimated sensitivity to geoengineering is inaccurate. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-072a58d0d1884cf9a2ba58b2debc9734 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:18Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-072a58d0d1884cf9a2ba58b2debc97342023-08-09T14:47:19ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262014-01-019404400610.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044006Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineeringBen Kravitz0Douglas G MacMartin1David T Leedal2Philip J Rasch3Andrew J Jarvis4Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , PO Box 999, MSIN K9-24, Richland, WA 99352, USADepartment of Computing and Mathematical Sciences, California Institute of Technology , 1200 E. California Boulevard, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA; Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science , 260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305, USALancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University , Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UKAtmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , PO Box 999, MSIN K9-24, Richland, WA 99352, USALancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University , Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UKSolar geoengineering has been proposed as a method of meeting climate objectives, such as reduced globally averaged surface temperatures. However, because of incomplete understanding of the effects of geoengineering on the climate system, its implementation would be in the presence of substantial uncertainties. In our study, we use two fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models: one in which the geoengineering strategy is designed, and one in which geoengineering is implemented (a real-world proxy). We show that regularly adjusting the amount of solar geoengineering in response to departures of the observed global mean climate state from the predetermined objective (sequential decision making; an explicit feedback approach) can manage uncertainties and result in achievement of the climate objective in both the design model and the real-world proxy. This approach results in substantially less error in meeting global climate objectives than using a predetermined time series of how much geoengineering to use, especially if the estimated sensitivity to geoengineering is inaccurate.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044006feedbackgeoengineeringclimate modeling |
| spellingShingle | Ben Kravitz Douglas G MacMartin David T Leedal Philip J Rasch Andrew J Jarvis Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering Environmental Research Letters feedback geoengineering climate modeling |
| title | Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering |
| title_full | Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering |
| title_fullStr | Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering |
| title_full_unstemmed | Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering |
| title_short | Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering |
| title_sort | explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering |
| topic | feedback geoengineering climate modeling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044006 |
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