Global urban fractional changes at a 1 km resolution throughout 2100 under eight scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
<p>The information of global spatially explicit urban extents under scenarios is important to mitigate future environmental risks caused by global urbanization and climate change. Although future dynamics of urban extent were commonly modeled with conversion from non-urban to urban extent usin...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Earth System Science Data |
| Online Access: | https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/3623/2023/essd-15-3623-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797745091143532544 |
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| author | W. He X. Li X. Li Y. Zhou Y. Zhou Z. Shi G. Yu T. Hu Y. Wang J. Huang J. Huang T. Bai Z. Sun X. Liu P. Gong P. Gong |
| author_facet | W. He X. Li X. Li Y. Zhou Y. Zhou Z. Shi G. Yu T. Hu Y. Wang J. Huang J. Huang T. Bai Z. Sun X. Liu P. Gong P. Gong |
| author_sort | W. He |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The information of global spatially explicit urban extents under scenarios is important to mitigate future environmental risks caused by global
urbanization and climate change. Although future dynamics of urban extent were commonly modeled with conversion from non-urban to urban extent using
cellular-automata (CA)-based models, gradual changes of impervious surface area (ISA) at the pixel level were limitedly explored in previous
studies. In this paper, we developed a global dataset of urban fractional changes at a 1 <span class="inline-formula">km</span> resolution from 2020 to 2100 (5-year interval),
under eight scenarios of socioeconomic pathways and climate change. First, to quantify the gradual change of ISA within the pixel, we characterized
ISA growth patterns over the past decades (i.e., 1985–2015) using a sigmoid growth model and annual global artificial impervious area (GAIA)
data. Then, by incorporating the ISA-based growth mechanism with the CA model, we calibrated the state-specific urban CA model with quantitative
evaluation at the global scale. Finally, we projected future urban fractional changes at 1 <span class="inline-formula">km</span> resolution under eight development pathways
based on the harmonized urban growth demand from Land Use Harmonization2 (LUH2). The evaluation results show that the ISA-based urban CA model
performs well globally, with an overall <span class="inline-formula"><i>R</i><sup>2</sup></span> of 0.9 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.08 between modeled and observed ISAs in 2015. With
the inclusion of temporal contexts of urban sprawl gained from GAIA, the dataset of global urban fractional change shows good agreement with 30-year
historical observations from satellites. The dataset can capture spatially explicit variations of ISA and gradual ISA change within pixels. The
dataset of global urban fractional change is of great use in supporting quantitative analysis of urbanization-induced ecological and environmental
change at a fine scale, such as urban heat islands, energy consumption, and human–nature interactions in the urban system. The developed dataset of
global urban fractional change is available at <a href="https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20391117.v4">https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20391117.v4</a> (He et al., 2022).</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:18:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-075e19b590824a6b9e6a38860972afb2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1866-3508 1866-3516 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:18:31Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Science Data |
| spelling | doaj.art-075e19b590824a6b9e6a38860972afb22023-08-11T07:19:30ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Science Data1866-35081866-35162023-08-01153623363910.5194/essd-15-3623-2023Global urban fractional changes at a 1 km resolution throughout 2100 under eight scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)W. He0X. Li1X. Li2Y. Zhou3Y. Zhou4Z. Shi5G. Yu6T. Hu7Y. Wang8J. Huang9J. Huang10T. Bai11Z. Sun12X. Liu13P. Gong14P. Gong15College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, ChinaCollege of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, ChinaKey Laboratory of Remote Sensing for Agri-Hazards, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100083, ChinaDepartment of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR 999077, ChinaUrban Systems Institute, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR 999077, ChinaNational Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China, Beijing 100085, ChinaCollege of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, ChinaBeijing Municipal Institute of City Planning and Design, Beijing 100045, ChinaCollege of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, ChinaCollege of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, ChinaKey Laboratory of Remote Sensing for Agri-Hazards, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100083, ChinaSchool of Information Engineering, Tarim University, Alaer 843300, ChinaKey Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaSchool of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, ChinaDepartment of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR 999077, ChinaUrban Systems Institute, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR 999077, China<p>The information of global spatially explicit urban extents under scenarios is important to mitigate future environmental risks caused by global urbanization and climate change. Although future dynamics of urban extent were commonly modeled with conversion from non-urban to urban extent using cellular-automata (CA)-based models, gradual changes of impervious surface area (ISA) at the pixel level were limitedly explored in previous studies. In this paper, we developed a global dataset of urban fractional changes at a 1 <span class="inline-formula">km</span> resolution from 2020 to 2100 (5-year interval), under eight scenarios of socioeconomic pathways and climate change. First, to quantify the gradual change of ISA within the pixel, we characterized ISA growth patterns over the past decades (i.e., 1985–2015) using a sigmoid growth model and annual global artificial impervious area (GAIA) data. Then, by incorporating the ISA-based growth mechanism with the CA model, we calibrated the state-specific urban CA model with quantitative evaluation at the global scale. Finally, we projected future urban fractional changes at 1 <span class="inline-formula">km</span> resolution under eight development pathways based on the harmonized urban growth demand from Land Use Harmonization2 (LUH2). The evaluation results show that the ISA-based urban CA model performs well globally, with an overall <span class="inline-formula"><i>R</i><sup>2</sup></span> of 0.9 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.08 between modeled and observed ISAs in 2015. With the inclusion of temporal contexts of urban sprawl gained from GAIA, the dataset of global urban fractional change shows good agreement with 30-year historical observations from satellites. The dataset can capture spatially explicit variations of ISA and gradual ISA change within pixels. The dataset of global urban fractional change is of great use in supporting quantitative analysis of urbanization-induced ecological and environmental change at a fine scale, such as urban heat islands, energy consumption, and human–nature interactions in the urban system. The developed dataset of global urban fractional change is available at <a href="https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20391117.v4">https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20391117.v4</a> (He et al., 2022).</p>https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/3623/2023/essd-15-3623-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | W. He X. Li X. Li Y. Zhou Y. Zhou Z. Shi G. Yu T. Hu Y. Wang J. Huang J. Huang T. Bai Z. Sun X. Liu P. Gong P. Gong Global urban fractional changes at a 1 km resolution throughout 2100 under eight scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Earth System Science Data |
| title | Global urban fractional changes at a 1 km resolution throughout 2100 under eight scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) |
| title_full | Global urban fractional changes at a 1 km resolution throughout 2100 under eight scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) |
| title_fullStr | Global urban fractional changes at a 1 km resolution throughout 2100 under eight scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global urban fractional changes at a 1 km resolution throughout 2100 under eight scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) |
| title_short | Global urban fractional changes at a 1 km resolution throughout 2100 under eight scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) |
| title_sort | global urban fractional changes at a 1 thinsp km resolution throughout 2100 under eight scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways ssps and representative concentration pathways rcps |
| url | https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/3623/2023/essd-15-3623-2023.pdf |
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