Prediction of lightning flash density with the WRF model
The Lightning Potential Index (LPI) is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective thunderstorms. It is calculated from model simulated updraft and microphysical fields. It was designed to predict the potential of lightning occurrence...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2010-02-01
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| Series: | Advances in Geosciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.adv-geosci.net/23/11/2010/adgeo-23-11-2010.pdf |
| Summary: | The Lightning Potential Index (LPI) is a measure of the potential for charge
generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective
thunderstorms. It is calculated from model simulated updraft and
microphysical fields. It was designed to predict the potential of lightning
occurrence in operational weather forecasting models, but could possibly be
used to improve short-range forecasts of heavy rain. The index is modified
here to be model grid-scale transparent between 1 and 4 km (the approximate
upper limit of explicit microphysical weather forecasts). Two case studies
show that the modification appears to work quite well, and that LPI can be
calculated on both an extremely high resolution research-grid (i.e., 1.33 km)
and high resolution (i.e., 4 km) operationally compatible forecast grid.
Analytical expressions are presented to use the LPI to predict the hourly
lightning flash density. |
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| ISSN: | 1680-7340 1680-7359 |