Decision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used
Dempster−Shafer belief function theory can address a wider class of uncertainty than the standard probability theory does, and this fact appeals the researchers in operations research society for potential application areas. However, the lack of a decision theory of belief functions gives r...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
University of Belgrade
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0354-0243/2014/0354-02431400033C.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818200699011334144 |
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| author | Cinicioglu Esma Nur |
| author_facet | Cinicioglu Esma Nur |
| author_sort | Cinicioglu Esma Nur |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Dempster−Shafer belief function theory can address a wider class of
uncertainty than the standard probability theory does, and this fact appeals
the researchers in operations research society for potential application
areas. However, the lack of a decision theory of belief functions gives rise
to the need to use the probability transformation methods for decision
making. For representation of statistical evidence, the class of consonant
belief functions is used which is not closed under Dempster’s rule of
combination but is closed under Walley’s rule of combination. In this
research, it is shown that the outcomes obtained using both Dempster’s and
Walley’s rules do result in different probability distributions when
pignistic transformation is used. However, when plausibility transformation
is used, they do result in the same probability distribution. This result
shows that the choice of the combination rule and probability transformation
method may have a significant effect on decision making since it may change
the choice of the decision alternative selected. This result is illustrated
via an example of missile type identification. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T02:41:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-07bb7eaaf6be45cd8721ac6ce822cd3b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0354-0243 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T02:41:48Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | University of Belgrade |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-07bb7eaaf6be45cd8721ac6ce822cd3b2022-12-22T00:41:09ZengUniversity of BelgradeYugoslav Journal of Operations Research0354-02432014-01-0124335937010.2298/YJOR140401033C0354-02431400033CDecision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method usedCinicioglu Esma Nur0School of Business, Istanbul University, Istanbul, TurkeyDempster−Shafer belief function theory can address a wider class of uncertainty than the standard probability theory does, and this fact appeals the researchers in operations research society for potential application areas. However, the lack of a decision theory of belief functions gives rise to the need to use the probability transformation methods for decision making. For representation of statistical evidence, the class of consonant belief functions is used which is not closed under Dempster’s rule of combination but is closed under Walley’s rule of combination. In this research, it is shown that the outcomes obtained using both Dempster’s and Walley’s rules do result in different probability distributions when pignistic transformation is used. However, when plausibility transformation is used, they do result in the same probability distribution. This result shows that the choice of the combination rule and probability transformation method may have a significant effect on decision making since it may change the choice of the decision alternative selected. This result is illustrated via an example of missile type identification.http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0354-0243/2014/0354-02431400033C.pdfBelief functionsConsonant belief functionsPlausibility transformationPignistic transformation |
| spellingShingle | Cinicioglu Esma Nur Decision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used Yugoslav Journal of Operations Research Belief functions Consonant belief functions Plausibility transformation Pignistic transformation |
| title | Decision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used |
| title_full | Decision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used |
| title_fullStr | Decision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used |
| title_short | Decision making with consonant belief functions: Discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used |
| title_sort | decision making with consonant belief functions discrepancy resulting with the probability transformation method used |
| topic | Belief functions Consonant belief functions Plausibility transformation Pignistic transformation |
| url | http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/0354-0243/2014/0354-02431400033C.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ciniciogluesmanur decisionmakingwithconsonantbelieffunctionsdiscrepancyresultingwiththeprobabilitytransformationmethodused |