Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO<sub>2</sub>
<p>The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carb...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-06-01
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| Series: | Biogeosciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/2987/2020/bg-17-2987-2020.pdf |
| _version_ | 1819095638974922752 |
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| author | A. H. MacDougall T. L. Frölicher T. L. Frölicher C. D. Jones J. Rogelj J. Rogelj H. D. Matthews K. Zickfeld V. K. Arora N. J. Barrett V. Brovkin V. Brovkin F. A. Burger F. A. Burger M. Eby A. V. Eliseev A. V. Eliseev T. Hajima P. B. Holden A. Jeltsch-Thömmes A. Jeltsch-Thömmes C. Koven N. Mengis L. Menviel M. Michou I. I. Mokhov I. I. Mokhov A. Oka J. Schwinger R. Séférian G. Shaffer G. Shaffer A. Sokolov K. Tachiiri J. Tjiputra A. Wiltshire T. Ziehn |
| author_facet | A. H. MacDougall T. L. Frölicher T. L. Frölicher C. D. Jones J. Rogelj J. Rogelj H. D. Matthews K. Zickfeld V. K. Arora N. J. Barrett V. Brovkin V. Brovkin F. A. Burger F. A. Burger M. Eby A. V. Eliseev A. V. Eliseev T. Hajima P. B. Holden A. Jeltsch-Thömmes A. Jeltsch-Thömmes C. Koven N. Mengis L. Menviel M. Michou I. I. Mokhov I. I. Mokhov A. Oka J. Schwinger R. Séférian G. Shaffer G. Shaffer A. Sokolov K. Tachiiri J. Tjiputra A. Wiltshire T. Ziehn |
| author_sort | A. H. MacDougall |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is <span class="inline-formula">−0.36</span> to 0.29 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, with a model ensemble mean of <span class="inline-formula">−0.07</span> <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, median of <span class="inline-formula">−0.05</span> <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, and standard deviation of 0.19 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T23:46:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-07ce5e1cfba846f0b70c91fef08bce71 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1726-4170 1726-4189 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T23:46:29Z |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Biogeosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-07ce5e1cfba846f0b70c91fef08bce712022-12-21T18:46:05ZengCopernicus PublicationsBiogeosciences1726-41701726-41892020-06-01172987301610.5194/bg-17-2987-2020Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO<sub>2</sub>A. H. MacDougall0T. L. Frölicher1T. L. Frölicher2C. D. Jones3J. Rogelj4J. Rogelj5H. D. Matthews6K. Zickfeld7V. K. Arora8N. J. Barrett9V. Brovkin10V. Brovkin11F. A. Burger12F. A. Burger13M. Eby14A. V. Eliseev15A. V. Eliseev16T. Hajima17P. B. Holden18A. Jeltsch-Thömmes19A. Jeltsch-Thömmes20C. Koven21N. Mengis22L. Menviel23M. Michou24I. I. Mokhov25I. I. Mokhov26A. Oka27J. Schwinger28R. Séférian29G. Shaffer30G. Shaffer31A. Sokolov32K. Tachiiri33J. Tjiputra34A. Wiltshire35T. Ziehn36Climate & Environment, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova Scotia, B2G 2W5, CanadaClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UKGrantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BU, UKInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, AustriaDepartment of Geography, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8, CanadaDepartment of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, V5A 1S6, CanadaCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, V8W 2Y2, CanadaClimate & Environment, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova Scotia, B2G 2W5, CanadaMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, GermanyCEN, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, GermanyClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandSchool of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, V8W 2Y2, CanadaFaculty of Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, RussiaA.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaResearch Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, JapanSchool of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UKClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandOeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandClimate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA, USABiogeochemical Modelling Department, GEOMAR – Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, GermanyClimate Change Research Centre, PANGEA, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceFaculty of Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, RussiaA.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaAtmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanNORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, FranceResearch Center GAIA Antarctica, University of Magallanes, Punta Arenas, ChileNiels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, DenmarkCenter for Global Change Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USAResearch Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, JapanNORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UKCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC, Australia<p>The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is <span class="inline-formula">−0.36</span> to 0.29 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, with a model ensemble mean of <span class="inline-formula">−0.07</span> <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, median of <span class="inline-formula">−0.05</span> <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C, and standard deviation of 0.19 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.</p>https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/2987/2020/bg-17-2987-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | A. H. MacDougall T. L. Frölicher T. L. Frölicher C. D. Jones J. Rogelj J. Rogelj H. D. Matthews K. Zickfeld V. K. Arora N. J. Barrett V. Brovkin V. Brovkin F. A. Burger F. A. Burger M. Eby A. V. Eliseev A. V. Eliseev T. Hajima P. B. Holden A. Jeltsch-Thömmes A. Jeltsch-Thömmes C. Koven N. Mengis L. Menviel M. Michou I. I. Mokhov I. I. Mokhov A. Oka J. Schwinger R. Séférian G. Shaffer G. Shaffer A. Sokolov K. Tachiiri J. Tjiputra A. Wiltshire T. Ziehn Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO<sub>2</sub> Biogeosciences |
| title | Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO<sub>2</sub> |
| title_full | Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO<sub>2</sub> |
| title_fullStr | Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO<sub>2</sub> |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO<sub>2</sub> |
| title_short | Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO<sub>2</sub> |
| title_sort | is there warming in the pipeline a multi model analysis of the zero emissions commitment from co sub 2 sub |
| url | https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/2987/2020/bg-17-2987-2020.pdf |
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