Propagating Dam Breach Parametric Uncertainty in a River Reach Using the HEC-RAS Software
Dam break studies consist of two submodels: (a) the dam breach submodel which derives the flood hydrograph and (b) the hydrodynamic submodel which, using the flood hydrograph, derives the flood peaks and maximum water depths in the downstream reaches of the river. In this paper, a thorough investiga...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-10-01
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| Series: | Hydrology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/7/4/72 |
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| author | Vasilis Bellos Vasileios Kaisar Tsakiris George Kopsiaftis George Tsakiris |
| author_facet | Vasilis Bellos Vasileios Kaisar Tsakiris George Kopsiaftis George Tsakiris |
| author_sort | Vasilis Bellos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Dam break studies consist of two submodels: (a) the dam breach submodel which derives the flood hydrograph and (b) the hydrodynamic submodel which, using the flood hydrograph, derives the flood peaks and maximum water depths in the downstream reaches of the river. In this paper, a thorough investigation of the uncertainty observed in the output of the hydrodynamic model, due to the seven dam breach parameters, is performed in a real-world case study (Papadiana Dam, located at Tavronitis River in Crete, Greece). Three levels of uncertainty are examined (flow peak of the flood hydrograph at the dam location, flow peaks and maximum water depths downstream along the river) with two methods: (a) a Morris-based sensitivity analysis for investigating the influence of each parameter on the final results; (b) a Monte Carlo-based forward uncertainty analysis for defining the distribution of uncertainty band and its statistical characteristics. Among others, it is found that uncertainty of the flow peaks is greater than the uncertainty of the maximum water depths, whereas there is a decreasing trend of uncertainty as we move downstream along the river. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:51:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-07d74763057f448cb0ced876bf5a4c78 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T15:51:24Z |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj.art-07d74763057f448cb0ced876bf5a4c782023-11-20T16:00:09ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382020-10-01747210.3390/hydrology7040072Propagating Dam Breach Parametric Uncertainty in a River Reach Using the HEC-RAS SoftwareVasilis Bellos0Vasileios Kaisar Tsakiris1George Kopsiaftis2George Tsakiris3Laboratory of Reclamation Works and Water Resources Management, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 15780 Athens, GreeceSEEMAN ENVIRONMENTAL, 14576 Athens, GreeceLaboratory of Reclamation Works and Water Resources Management, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 15780 Athens, GreeceLaboratory of Reclamation Works and Water Resources Management, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 15780 Athens, GreeceDam break studies consist of two submodels: (a) the dam breach submodel which derives the flood hydrograph and (b) the hydrodynamic submodel which, using the flood hydrograph, derives the flood peaks and maximum water depths in the downstream reaches of the river. In this paper, a thorough investigation of the uncertainty observed in the output of the hydrodynamic model, due to the seven dam breach parameters, is performed in a real-world case study (Papadiana Dam, located at Tavronitis River in Crete, Greece). Three levels of uncertainty are examined (flow peak of the flood hydrograph at the dam location, flow peaks and maximum water depths downstream along the river) with two methods: (a) a Morris-based sensitivity analysis for investigating the influence of each parameter on the final results; (b) a Monte Carlo-based forward uncertainty analysis for defining the distribution of uncertainty band and its statistical characteristics. Among others, it is found that uncertainty of the flow peaks is greater than the uncertainty of the maximum water depths, whereas there is a decreasing trend of uncertainty as we move downstream along the river.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/7/4/72dam breakfloodingdam breach modelinghydrodynamic modelinguncertainty analysissensitivity analysis |
| spellingShingle | Vasilis Bellos Vasileios Kaisar Tsakiris George Kopsiaftis George Tsakiris Propagating Dam Breach Parametric Uncertainty in a River Reach Using the HEC-RAS Software Hydrology dam break flooding dam breach modeling hydrodynamic modeling uncertainty analysis sensitivity analysis |
| title | Propagating Dam Breach Parametric Uncertainty in a River Reach Using the HEC-RAS Software |
| title_full | Propagating Dam Breach Parametric Uncertainty in a River Reach Using the HEC-RAS Software |
| title_fullStr | Propagating Dam Breach Parametric Uncertainty in a River Reach Using the HEC-RAS Software |
| title_full_unstemmed | Propagating Dam Breach Parametric Uncertainty in a River Reach Using the HEC-RAS Software |
| title_short | Propagating Dam Breach Parametric Uncertainty in a River Reach Using the HEC-RAS Software |
| title_sort | propagating dam breach parametric uncertainty in a river reach using the hec ras software |
| topic | dam break flooding dam breach modeling hydrodynamic modeling uncertainty analysis sensitivity analysis |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/7/4/72 |
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