Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia
Abstract While wastewater-based epidemiology has proven a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, few quantitative models comparing virus concentrations in wastewater samples and cumulative incidence have been established. In this work, a simple mathematical model...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18518-9 |
| _version_ | 1811273528361615360 |
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| author | Bernat Joseph-Duran Albert Serra-Compte Miquel Sàrrias Susana Gonzalez Daniel López Clara Prats Martí Català Enric Alvarez-Lacalle Sergio Alonso Marina Arnaldos |
| author_facet | Bernat Joseph-Duran Albert Serra-Compte Miquel Sàrrias Susana Gonzalez Daniel López Clara Prats Martí Català Enric Alvarez-Lacalle Sergio Alonso Marina Arnaldos |
| author_sort | Bernat Joseph-Duran |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract While wastewater-based epidemiology has proven a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, few quantitative models comparing virus concentrations in wastewater samples and cumulative incidence have been established. In this work, a simple mathematical model relating virus concentration and cumulative incidence for full contagion waves was developed. The model was then used for short-term forecasting and compared to a local linear model. Both scenarios were tested using a dataset composed of samples from 32 wastewater treatment plants and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence data covering the corresponding geographical areas during a 7-month period, including two contagion waves. A population-averaged dataset was also developed to model and predict the incidence over the full geography. Overall, the mathematical model based on wastewater data showed a good correlation with cumulative cases and allowed us to anticipate SARS-CoV-2 incidence in one week, which is of special relevance in situations where the epidemiological monitoring system cannot be fully implemented. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T23:00:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-07e1e764235348afa039c777ed101ca1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T23:00:50Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-07e1e764235348afa039c777ed101ca12022-12-22T03:13:03ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222022-09-0112111110.1038/s41598-022-18518-9Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in CataloniaBernat Joseph-Duran0Albert Serra-Compte1Miquel Sàrrias2Susana Gonzalez3Daniel López4Clara Prats5Martí Català6Enric Alvarez-Lacalle7Sergio Alonso8Marina Arnaldos9CETAQUA Water Technology CenterCETAQUA Water Technology CenterCETAQUA Water Technology CenterCETAQUA Water Technology CenterDepartment of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech)Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech)Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology, and Musculoskeletal Sciences (NDORMS), University of OxfordDepartment of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech)Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC-BarcelonaTech)CETAQUA Water Technology CenterAbstract While wastewater-based epidemiology has proven a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, few quantitative models comparing virus concentrations in wastewater samples and cumulative incidence have been established. In this work, a simple mathematical model relating virus concentration and cumulative incidence for full contagion waves was developed. The model was then used for short-term forecasting and compared to a local linear model. Both scenarios were tested using a dataset composed of samples from 32 wastewater treatment plants and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence data covering the corresponding geographical areas during a 7-month period, including two contagion waves. A population-averaged dataset was also developed to model and predict the incidence over the full geography. Overall, the mathematical model based on wastewater data showed a good correlation with cumulative cases and allowed us to anticipate SARS-CoV-2 incidence in one week, which is of special relevance in situations where the epidemiological monitoring system cannot be fully implemented.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18518-9 |
| spellingShingle | Bernat Joseph-Duran Albert Serra-Compte Miquel Sàrrias Susana Gonzalez Daniel López Clara Prats Martí Català Enric Alvarez-Lacalle Sergio Alonso Marina Arnaldos Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia Scientific Reports |
| title | Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia |
| title_full | Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia |
| title_fullStr | Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia |
| title_short | Assessing wastewater-based epidemiology for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in Catalonia |
| title_sort | assessing wastewater based epidemiology for the prediction of sars cov 2 incidence in catalonia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18518-9 |
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