Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds
Background A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species’ representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning p...
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| Format: | Article |
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PeerJ Inc.
2018-05-01
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| Online Access: | https://peerj.com/articles/4689.pdf |
| _version_ | 1827605691224817664 |
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| author | Mariana M. Vale Thiago V. Souza Maria Alice S. Alves Renato Crouzeilles |
| author_facet | Mariana M. Vale Thiago V. Souza Maria Alice S. Alves Renato Crouzeilles |
| author_sort | Mariana M. Vale |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species’ representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050. Methods We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers. Results We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species. Discussion Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as “no regret” areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:24:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-08298869ea684ae5b4f8f482ed3cb827 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T06:24:30Z |
| publishDate | 2018-05-01 |
| publisher | PeerJ Inc. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PeerJ |
| spelling | doaj.art-08298869ea684ae5b4f8f482ed3cb8272023-12-03T11:22:47ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592018-05-016e468910.7717/peerj.4689Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birdsMariana M. Vale0Thiago V. Souza1Maria Alice S. Alves2Renato Crouzeilles3Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilEcology Department, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilRio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, BrazilBackground A key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species’ representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050. Methods We combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers. Results We estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km2 in environmentally suitable areas for birds, representing 52% of currently suitable areas. Still, the most cost-effective solution represented almost all target species, requiring only ca. 10% of the Atlantic Forest counties to achieve that representativeness, independent of strategy. More than 50% of these counties were selected both in the current and future planned networks, representing >83% of the species. Discussion Our results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as “no regret” areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies.https://peerj.com/articles/4689.pdfBiodiversityDecision-makingGISBrazilSystematic conservation planningEcological niche modelling |
| spellingShingle | Mariana M. Vale Thiago V. Souza Maria Alice S. Alves Renato Crouzeilles Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds PeerJ Biodiversity Decision-making GIS Brazil Systematic conservation planning Ecological niche modelling |
| title | Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds |
| title_full | Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds |
| title_fullStr | Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds |
| title_full_unstemmed | Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds |
| title_short | Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds |
| title_sort | planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible the case of atlantic forest endemic birds |
| topic | Biodiversity Decision-making GIS Brazil Systematic conservation planning Ecological niche modelling |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/4689.pdf |
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