The scrub typhus in mainland China: spatiotemporal expansion and risk prediction underpinned by complex factors
ABSTRACTIn mainland China, a geographic northward expansion of scrub typhus has been seen, highlighting the need to understand the factors and identify the risk for disease prevention. Incidence data from 1980 to 2013 were used. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify drivers for spatia...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Emerging Microbes and Infections |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/22221751.2019.1631719 |
| _version_ | 1797385743474098176 |
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| author | Hongwu Yao Yixing Wang Xianmiao Mi Ye Sun Kun Liu Xinlou Li Xiang Ren Mengjie Geng Yang Yang Liping Wang Wei Liu Liqun Fang |
| author_facet | Hongwu Yao Yixing Wang Xianmiao Mi Ye Sun Kun Liu Xinlou Li Xiang Ren Mengjie Geng Yang Yang Liping Wang Wei Liu Liqun Fang |
| author_sort | Hongwu Yao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACTIn mainland China, a geographic northward expansion of scrub typhus has been seen, highlighting the need to understand the factors and identify the risk for disease prevention. Incidence data from 1980 to 2013 were used. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify drivers for spatial spread, and a boosted regression tree (BRT) model was constructed to predict potential risk areas. Since the 1980s, an invasive expansion from South Natural Foci towards North Natural Foci was clearly identified, with the epidemiological heterogeneity observed between two regions, mainly in spatial distribution, seasonality, and demographic characteristics. Survival analysis disclosed significant factors contributing to the spatial expansion as following: being intersected by freeway (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.11–1.54), coverage percentage of broadleaf forest (HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.06–1.15), and monthly average temperature (HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.25–1.30). The BRT models showed that precipitation, sunshine hour, temperature, crop field, and relative humidity contributed substantially to the spatial distribution of scrub typhus. A county-scale risk map was created to predict the regions with high probability of the disease. The current study enabled a comprehensive overview of epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus in mainland China. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T21:58:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-084dcf232bb447c4b731ad0c169b3590 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2222-1751 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T21:58:40Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Microbes and Infections |
| spelling | doaj.art-084dcf232bb447c4b731ad0c169b35902023-12-19T16:09:57ZengTaylor & Francis GroupEmerging Microbes and Infections2222-17512019-01-018190991910.1080/22221751.2019.1631719The scrub typhus in mainland China: spatiotemporal expansion and risk prediction underpinned by complex factorsHongwu Yao0Yixing Wang1Xianmiao Mi2Ye Sun3Kun Liu4Xinlou Li5Xiang Ren6Mengjie Geng7Yang Yang8Liping Wang9Wei Liu10Liqun Fang11Department of Infection Management and Disease Control, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaThe State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaThe State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaThe State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaThe State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaThe State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaDivision of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaDivision of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USADivision of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaThe State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaThe State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaABSTRACTIn mainland China, a geographic northward expansion of scrub typhus has been seen, highlighting the need to understand the factors and identify the risk for disease prevention. Incidence data from 1980 to 2013 were used. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify drivers for spatial spread, and a boosted regression tree (BRT) model was constructed to predict potential risk areas. Since the 1980s, an invasive expansion from South Natural Foci towards North Natural Foci was clearly identified, with the epidemiological heterogeneity observed between two regions, mainly in spatial distribution, seasonality, and demographic characteristics. Survival analysis disclosed significant factors contributing to the spatial expansion as following: being intersected by freeway (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.11–1.54), coverage percentage of broadleaf forest (HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.06–1.15), and monthly average temperature (HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.25–1.30). The BRT models showed that precipitation, sunshine hour, temperature, crop field, and relative humidity contributed substantially to the spatial distribution of scrub typhus. A county-scale risk map was created to predict the regions with high probability of the disease. The current study enabled a comprehensive overview of epidemiological characteristics of scrub typhus in mainland China.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/22221751.2019.1631719Scrub typhusepidemiological featureheterogeneityspatiotemporal expansionrisk factors |
| spellingShingle | Hongwu Yao Yixing Wang Xianmiao Mi Ye Sun Kun Liu Xinlou Li Xiang Ren Mengjie Geng Yang Yang Liping Wang Wei Liu Liqun Fang The scrub typhus in mainland China: spatiotemporal expansion and risk prediction underpinned by complex factors Emerging Microbes and Infections Scrub typhus epidemiological feature heterogeneity spatiotemporal expansion risk factors |
| title | The scrub typhus in mainland China: spatiotemporal expansion and risk prediction underpinned by complex factors |
| title_full | The scrub typhus in mainland China: spatiotemporal expansion and risk prediction underpinned by complex factors |
| title_fullStr | The scrub typhus in mainland China: spatiotemporal expansion and risk prediction underpinned by complex factors |
| title_full_unstemmed | The scrub typhus in mainland China: spatiotemporal expansion and risk prediction underpinned by complex factors |
| title_short | The scrub typhus in mainland China: spatiotemporal expansion and risk prediction underpinned by complex factors |
| title_sort | scrub typhus in mainland china spatiotemporal expansion and risk prediction underpinned by complex factors |
| topic | Scrub typhus epidemiological feature heterogeneity spatiotemporal expansion risk factors |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/22221751.2019.1631719 |
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