Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas in Portugal.
Commuting flows and long-distance travel are important spreading factors of viruses and particularly airborne ones. Therefore, it is relevant to examine the association among diverse mobility scenarios and the spatial dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 cases. We intended to analyze the patterns of virus sp...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0274286 |
| _version_ | 1798000429096763392 |
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| author | Sandra Oliveira Ana Isabel Ribeiro Paulo Nogueira Jorge Rocha |
| author_facet | Sandra Oliveira Ana Isabel Ribeiro Paulo Nogueira Jorge Rocha |
| author_sort | Sandra Oliveira |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Commuting flows and long-distance travel are important spreading factors of viruses and particularly airborne ones. Therefore, it is relevant to examine the association among diverse mobility scenarios and the spatial dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 cases. We intended to analyze the patterns of virus spreading linked to different mobility scenarios, in order to better comprehend the effect of the lockdown measures, and how such measures can be better informed. We simulated the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 amongst the municipalities of two metropolitan areas, Lisbon (LMA) and Porto (PMA). Based on an adapted SEIR (Suscetible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model, we estimated the number of new daily infections during one year, according to different mobility scenarios: restricted to essential activities, industrial activities, public transport use, and a scenario with unrestricted mobility including all transport modes. The trends of new daily infections were further explored using time-series clustering analysis, using dynamic time warping. Mobility restrictions resulted in lower numbers of new daily infections when compared to the unrestricted mobility scenario, in both metropolitan areas. Between March and September 2020, the official number of new infections followed overall a similar timeline to the one simulated considering only essential activities. At the municipal level, trends differ amongst the two metropolitan areas. The analysis of the effects of mobility in virus spread within different municipalities and regions could help tailoring future strategies and increase the public acceptance of eventual restrictions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T11:20:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-085cf3c05f6849e78ad99d090a8ca6f5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T11:20:06Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-085cf3c05f6849e78ad99d090a8ca6f52022-12-22T04:27:06ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-01179e027428610.1371/journal.pone.0274286Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas in Portugal.Sandra OliveiraAna Isabel RibeiroPaulo NogueiraJorge RochaCommuting flows and long-distance travel are important spreading factors of viruses and particularly airborne ones. Therefore, it is relevant to examine the association among diverse mobility scenarios and the spatial dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 cases. We intended to analyze the patterns of virus spreading linked to different mobility scenarios, in order to better comprehend the effect of the lockdown measures, and how such measures can be better informed. We simulated the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 amongst the municipalities of two metropolitan areas, Lisbon (LMA) and Porto (PMA). Based on an adapted SEIR (Suscetible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model, we estimated the number of new daily infections during one year, according to different mobility scenarios: restricted to essential activities, industrial activities, public transport use, and a scenario with unrestricted mobility including all transport modes. The trends of new daily infections were further explored using time-series clustering analysis, using dynamic time warping. Mobility restrictions resulted in lower numbers of new daily infections when compared to the unrestricted mobility scenario, in both metropolitan areas. Between March and September 2020, the official number of new infections followed overall a similar timeline to the one simulated considering only essential activities. At the municipal level, trends differ amongst the two metropolitan areas. The analysis of the effects of mobility in virus spread within different municipalities and regions could help tailoring future strategies and increase the public acceptance of eventual restrictions.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0274286 |
| spellingShingle | Sandra Oliveira Ana Isabel Ribeiro Paulo Nogueira Jorge Rocha Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas in Portugal. PLoS ONE |
| title | Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas in Portugal. |
| title_full | Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas in Portugal. |
| title_fullStr | Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas in Portugal. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas in Portugal. |
| title_short | Simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan areas in Portugal. |
| title_sort | simulating the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of sars cov 2 in metropolitan areas in portugal |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0274286 |
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