ADDING A NEW STEP WITH SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION TO IMPROVE THE FOUR-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL WITH FEEDBACK FOR A DEVELOPING CITY
It is expected that improvement of transport networks could give rise to the change of spatial distributions of population-related factors and car ownership, which are expected to further influence travel demand. To properly reflect such an interdependence mechanism, an aggregate multinomial logit (...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2009-01-01
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| Series: | IATSS Research |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0386111214602363 |
| _version_ | 1811269239227547648 |
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| author | Xuesong FENG, Ph.D Candidate |
| author_facet | Xuesong FENG, Ph.D Candidate |
| author_sort | Xuesong FENG, Ph.D Candidate |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | It is expected that improvement of transport networks could give rise to the change of spatial distributions of population-related factors and car ownership, which are expected to further influence travel demand. To properly reflect such an interdependence mechanism, an aggregate multinomial logit (A-MNL) model was firstly applied to represent the spatial distributions of these exogenous variables of the travel demand model by reflecting the influence of transport networks. Next, the spatial autocorrelation analysis is introduced into the log-transformed A-MNL model (called SPA-MNL model). Thereafter, the SPA-MNL model is integrated into the four-step travel demand model with feedback (called 4-STEP model). As a result, an integrated travel demand model is newly developed and named as the SPA-STEP model. Using person trip data collected in Beijing, the performance of the SPA-STEP model is empirically compared with the 4-STEP model. It was proven that the SPA-STEP model is superior to the 4-STEP model in accuracy; most of the estimated parameters showed statistical differences in values. Moreover, though the results of the simulations to the same set of assumed scenarios by the 4-STEP model and the SPA-STEP model consistently suggested the same sustainable path for the future development of Beijing, it was found that the environmental sustainability and the traffic congestion for these scenarios were generally overestimated by the 4-STEP model compared with the corresponding analyses by the SPA-STEP model. Such differences were clearly generated by the introduction of the new modeling step with spatial autocorrelation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T21:38:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-089428996ba1407a8c29a68ded99a4b6 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0386-1112 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T21:38:31Z |
| publishDate | 2009-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | IATSS Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-089428996ba1407a8c29a68ded99a4b62022-12-22T03:15:50ZengElsevierIATSS Research0386-11122009-01-01331445410.1016/S0386-1112(14)60236-3ADDING A NEW STEP WITH SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION TO IMPROVE THE FOUR-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL WITH FEEDBACK FOR A DEVELOPING CITYXuesong FENG, Ph.D CandidateIt is expected that improvement of transport networks could give rise to the change of spatial distributions of population-related factors and car ownership, which are expected to further influence travel demand. To properly reflect such an interdependence mechanism, an aggregate multinomial logit (A-MNL) model was firstly applied to represent the spatial distributions of these exogenous variables of the travel demand model by reflecting the influence of transport networks. Next, the spatial autocorrelation analysis is introduced into the log-transformed A-MNL model (called SPA-MNL model). Thereafter, the SPA-MNL model is integrated into the four-step travel demand model with feedback (called 4-STEP model). As a result, an integrated travel demand model is newly developed and named as the SPA-STEP model. Using person trip data collected in Beijing, the performance of the SPA-STEP model is empirically compared with the 4-STEP model. It was proven that the SPA-STEP model is superior to the 4-STEP model in accuracy; most of the estimated parameters showed statistical differences in values. Moreover, though the results of the simulations to the same set of assumed scenarios by the 4-STEP model and the SPA-STEP model consistently suggested the same sustainable path for the future development of Beijing, it was found that the environmental sustainability and the traffic congestion for these scenarios were generally overestimated by the 4-STEP model compared with the corresponding analyses by the SPA-STEP model. Such differences were clearly generated by the introduction of the new modeling step with spatial autocorrelation.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0386111214602363Four-step travel demand modelFeedbackSpatial autocorrelationEndogeneity of exogenous variablesDeveloping city |
| spellingShingle | Xuesong FENG, Ph.D Candidate ADDING A NEW STEP WITH SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION TO IMPROVE THE FOUR-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL WITH FEEDBACK FOR A DEVELOPING CITY IATSS Research Four-step travel demand model Feedback Spatial autocorrelation Endogeneity of exogenous variables Developing city |
| title | ADDING A NEW STEP WITH SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION TO IMPROVE THE FOUR-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL WITH FEEDBACK FOR A DEVELOPING CITY |
| title_full | ADDING A NEW STEP WITH SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION TO IMPROVE THE FOUR-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL WITH FEEDBACK FOR A DEVELOPING CITY |
| title_fullStr | ADDING A NEW STEP WITH SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION TO IMPROVE THE FOUR-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL WITH FEEDBACK FOR A DEVELOPING CITY |
| title_full_unstemmed | ADDING A NEW STEP WITH SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION TO IMPROVE THE FOUR-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL WITH FEEDBACK FOR A DEVELOPING CITY |
| title_short | ADDING A NEW STEP WITH SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION TO IMPROVE THE FOUR-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL WITH FEEDBACK FOR A DEVELOPING CITY |
| title_sort | adding a new step with spatial autocorrelation to improve the four step travel demand model with feedback for a developing city |
| topic | Four-step travel demand model Feedback Spatial autocorrelation Endogeneity of exogenous variables Developing city |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0386111214602363 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT xuesongfengphdcandidate addinganewstepwithspatialautocorrelationtoimprovethefoursteptraveldemandmodelwithfeedbackforadevelopingcity |