How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region
<p>Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measureme...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Online Access: | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/7133/2021/gmd-14-7133-2021.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818836533950545920 |
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| author | D. Degen C. Spooner C. Spooner M. Scheck-Wenderoth M. Scheck-Wenderoth M. Cacace |
| author_facet | D. Degen C. Spooner C. Spooner M. Scheck-Wenderoth M. Scheck-Wenderoth M. Cacace |
| author_sort | D. Degen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T03:08:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-08a4ce0f37364f83ab3db5fa4ac25494 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T03:08:08Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscientific Model Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-08a4ce0f37364f83ab3db5fa4ac254942022-12-21T20:38:05ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032021-11-01147133715310.5194/gmd-14-7133-2021How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine regionD. Degen0C. Spooner1C. Spooner2M. Scheck-Wenderoth3M. Scheck-Wenderoth4M. Cacace5Computational Geoscience and Reservoir Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Wüllnerstr. 2, 52062 Aachen, GermanyGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyInstitute of Earth and Environmental Science, Potsdam University, 14476 Potsdam, GermanyGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Geology, Geochemistry of Petroleum and Coal, RWTH Aachen University, 52056 Aachen, GermanyGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany<p>Geophysical process simulations play a crucial role in the understanding of the subsurface. This understanding is required to provide, for instance, clean energy sources such as geothermal energy. However, the calibration and validation of the physical models heavily rely on state measurements such as temperature. In this work, we demonstrate that focusing analyses purely on measurements introduces a high bias. This is illustrated through global sensitivity studies. The extensive exploration of the parameter space becomes feasible through the construction of suitable surrogate models via the reduced basis method, where the bias is found to result from very unequal data distribution. We propose schemes to compensate for parts of this bias. However, the bias cannot be entirely compensated. Therefore, we demonstrate the consequences of this bias with the example of a model calibration.</p>https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/7133/2021/gmd-14-7133-2021.pdf |
| spellingShingle | D. Degen C. Spooner C. Spooner M. Scheck-Wenderoth M. Scheck-Wenderoth M. Cacace How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region Geoscientific Model Development |
| title | How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region |
| title_full | How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region |
| title_fullStr | How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region |
| title_full_unstemmed | How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region |
| title_short | How biased are our models? – a case study of the alpine region |
| title_sort | how biased are our models a case study of the alpine region |
| url | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/14/7133/2021/gmd-14-7133-2021.pdf |
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