Statistical study for Covid-19 spread during the armed crisis faced by Ukrainians
Russia and Ukraine got into an armed conflict on 24th February 2022. In addition, the World Health Organisation still warns of a fast growth in infections and deaths. Infectious disease remains a serious issue in Ukraine and poorly governed cities, such as those in armed conflicts. During this perio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S111001682300621X |
| _version_ | 1797736859439202304 |
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| author | Mustafa Kamal Mintodê Nicodème Atchadé Yves Morel Sokadjo Nayabuddin Eslam Hussam Ahmed M. Gemeay Fatimah A. Almulhim Amirah Saeed Alharthi Hassan M. Aljohani |
| author_facet | Mustafa Kamal Mintodê Nicodème Atchadé Yves Morel Sokadjo Nayabuddin Eslam Hussam Ahmed M. Gemeay Fatimah A. Almulhim Amirah Saeed Alharthi Hassan M. Aljohani |
| author_sort | Mustafa Kamal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Russia and Ukraine got into an armed conflict on 24th February 2022. In addition, the World Health Organisation still warns of a fast growth in infections and deaths. Infectious disease remains a serious issue in Ukraine and poorly governed cities, such as those in armed conflicts. During this period of security instability, the coronavirus situation in Ukraine is alarming and needs more attention. In this context, our focus in the current work is to model COVID-19 spread risk from Ukrainian international refugees in neighboring countries. This study aims to estimate the number of daily coronavirus cases among Ukrainian international refugees for informed decisions for the pandemics' spread risk. For that reason, we used “Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)” data from “Our World in Data” (from 2020-03-03 to 2022-02-22) and the data about Ukrainian International Refugees provided by United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees related (from 2022-02-22 to 2022-03-11). We performed ARIMA, TBATS, and ETS and selected the best model. Through a cross-validation process, the findings revealed that around 6 individuals [95% CI: 5%–7%] over 10,000 Ukrainian international refugees are likely COVID-19 cases. ARIMA is the best model to fit the Ukrainian daily number of cases among the refugees fleeing the crisis. On average, they are daily 100 possible COVID-19 cases among Ukrainian international refugees and authorities and humanitarian actors need be informed decisions to control the pandemic and support refugees effectively. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T13:19:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-08b0e06c1f124290ba84388a7705453a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1110-0168 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T13:19:04Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-08b0e06c1f124290ba84388a7705453a2023-08-26T04:42:55ZengElsevierAlexandria Engineering Journal1110-01682023-09-0178419425Statistical study for Covid-19 spread during the armed crisis faced by UkrainiansMustafa Kamal0Mintodê Nicodème Atchadé1Yves Morel Sokadjo2 Nayabuddin3Eslam Hussam4Ahmed M. Gemeay5Fatimah A. Almulhim6Amirah Saeed Alharthi7Hassan M. Aljohani8Department of Basic Sciences, College of Science and Theoretical Studies, Saudi Electronic University, Dammam, 32256, Saudi ArabiaUniversity of Abomey-Calavi/International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications (ICMPA: UNESCO-Chair), 072 BP 50 Cotonou, Benin Republic; National Higher School of Mathematics Genius and Modelization, National University of Sciences, Technologies, Engineering and Mathematics, Abomey, Benin RepublicUniversity of Abomey-Calavi/International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications (ICMPA: UNESCO-Chair), 072 BP 50 Cotonou, Benin RepublicDepartment of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan University, Saudi ArabiaHelwan University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics, Egypt; Corresponding author.Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Tanta University, Tanta 31527, EgyptDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, College of Sciences, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, P.O. Box 11099, Taif University, Taif 21944, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, P.O. Box 11099, Taif University, Taif 21944, Saudi ArabiaRussia and Ukraine got into an armed conflict on 24th February 2022. In addition, the World Health Organisation still warns of a fast growth in infections and deaths. Infectious disease remains a serious issue in Ukraine and poorly governed cities, such as those in armed conflicts. During this period of security instability, the coronavirus situation in Ukraine is alarming and needs more attention. In this context, our focus in the current work is to model COVID-19 spread risk from Ukrainian international refugees in neighboring countries. This study aims to estimate the number of daily coronavirus cases among Ukrainian international refugees for informed decisions for the pandemics' spread risk. For that reason, we used “Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)” data from “Our World in Data” (from 2020-03-03 to 2022-02-22) and the data about Ukrainian International Refugees provided by United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees related (from 2022-02-22 to 2022-03-11). We performed ARIMA, TBATS, and ETS and selected the best model. Through a cross-validation process, the findings revealed that around 6 individuals [95% CI: 5%–7%] over 10,000 Ukrainian international refugees are likely COVID-19 cases. ARIMA is the best model to fit the Ukrainian daily number of cases among the refugees fleeing the crisis. On average, they are daily 100 possible COVID-19 cases among Ukrainian international refugees and authorities and humanitarian actors need be informed decisions to control the pandemic and support refugees effectively.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S111001682300621XCovid-19MigrationPublic healthStatistical modelingUkraine |
| spellingShingle | Mustafa Kamal Mintodê Nicodème Atchadé Yves Morel Sokadjo Nayabuddin Eslam Hussam Ahmed M. Gemeay Fatimah A. Almulhim Amirah Saeed Alharthi Hassan M. Aljohani Statistical study for Covid-19 spread during the armed crisis faced by Ukrainians Alexandria Engineering Journal Covid-19 Migration Public health Statistical modeling Ukraine |
| title | Statistical study for Covid-19 spread during the armed crisis faced by Ukrainians |
| title_full | Statistical study for Covid-19 spread during the armed crisis faced by Ukrainians |
| title_fullStr | Statistical study for Covid-19 spread during the armed crisis faced by Ukrainians |
| title_full_unstemmed | Statistical study for Covid-19 spread during the armed crisis faced by Ukrainians |
| title_short | Statistical study for Covid-19 spread during the armed crisis faced by Ukrainians |
| title_sort | statistical study for covid 19 spread during the armed crisis faced by ukrainians |
| topic | Covid-19 Migration Public health Statistical modeling Ukraine |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S111001682300621X |
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