Can a Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique be used for precipitation forecasts?
The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models in order to obtain a combined e...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2010-03-01
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| Series: | Advances in Geosciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.adv-geosci.net/25/17/2010/adgeo-25-17-2010.pdf |
| Summary: | The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is a
postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters
reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis
techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models
in order to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters.
Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the differences
between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period.
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Although it can be applied successfully on continuous parameters like
temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure, the
Multimodel SuperEnsemble also gives good results when applied on the
precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard
post-processing methods. Here we present a methodology for the Multimodel
precipitation forecasts with a careful ensemble dressing via the
precipitation PDF estimation. |
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| ISSN: | 1680-7340 1680-7359 |