Snow sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change during compound cold–hot and wet–dry seasons in the Pyrenees
<p>The Mediterranean Basin has experienced one of the highest warming rates on earth during the last few decades, and climate projections predict water scarcity in the future. Mid-latitude Mediterranean mountain areas, such as the Pyrenees, play a key role in the hydrological resources for the...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023-03-01
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| Series: | The Cryosphere |
| Online Access: | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/1307/2023/tc-17-1307-2023.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>The Mediterranean Basin has experienced one of the highest warming
rates on earth during the last few decades, and climate projections predict
water scarcity in the future. Mid-latitude Mediterranean mountain areas,
such as the Pyrenees, play a key role in the hydrological resources for the
highly populated lowland areas. However, there are still large uncertainties
about the impact of climate change on snowpack in the high mountain ranges
of this region. Here, we perform a snow sensitivity to temperature and
precipitation change analysis of the Pyrenean snowpack (1980–2019 period)
using five key snow–climatological indicators. We analyzed snow sensitivity
to temperature and precipitation during four different compound weather
conditions (cold–dry (CD), cold–wet (CW), warm–dry (WD), and warm–wet (WW))
at low elevations (1500 m), mid elevations (1800 m), and high elevations
(2400 m) in the Pyrenees. In particular, we forced a physically based energy
and mass balance snow model (FSM2), with validation by ground-truth data,
and applied this model to the entire range, with forcing of perturbed
reanalysis climate data for the period 1980 to 2019 as the baseline. The
FSM2 model results successfully reproduced the observed snow depth (HS)
values (<span class="inline-formula"><i>R</i><sup>2</sup>>0.8</span>), with relative root mean square error and
mean absolute error values less than 10 % of the observed HS values.
Overall, the snow sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change
decreased with elevation and increased towards the eastern Pyrenees. When
the temperature increased progressively at 1 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C intervals,
the largest seasonal HS decreases from the baseline were at
<span class="inline-formula">+1</span> <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C. A 10 % increase in precipitation counterbalanced
the temperature increases (<span class="inline-formula">≤1</span> <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C) at high elevations
during the coldest months because temperature was far from the isothermal
0 <span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span>C conditions. The maximal seasonal HS and peak HS max
reductions were during WW seasons, and the minimal reductions were during CD
seasons. During WW (CD) seasons, the seasonal HS decline per degree Celsius
was 37 % (28 %) at low elevations, 34 % (30 %) at mid elevations,
and 27 % (22 %) at high elevations. Further, the peak HS date was on
average anticipated for 2, 3, and 8 d at low, mid, and high elevation,
respectively. Results suggest snow sensitivity to temperature and
precipitation change will be similar at other mid-latitude mountain areas,
where snowpack reductions will have major consequences for the nearby
ecological and socioeconomic systems.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1994-0416 1994-0424 |