Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water tower
Abstract The increased precipitation in the Asian water tower has prompted the abrupt lake expansion and increased runoff, significantly reshaping the water resource redistribution in the Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP). However, the dynamic attribution behind this decadal increment remains unclear. Her...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-05-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00369-4 |
| _version_ | 1797822922248683520 |
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| author | Yong Liu Huijun Wang Huopo Chen Zhongshi Zhang Hua Li Bo Liu |
| author_facet | Yong Liu Huijun Wang Huopo Chen Zhongshi Zhang Hua Li Bo Liu |
| author_sort | Yong Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The increased precipitation in the Asian water tower has prompted the abrupt lake expansion and increased runoff, significantly reshaping the water resource redistribution in the Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP). However, the dynamic attribution behind this decadal increment remains unclear. Here, analysis of observations, large ensemble simulations, and pacemaker experiments indicates that this decadal increase was mainly attributed to the synergistic effects of the external forcing (anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions) and the Pacific internal variability, while the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean play a secondary role. Observations and simulations show that thermodynamic and dynamic effects work collaboratively to this increase. Remarkably, the upper-level dynamic convergence over the ITP would be enhanced through teleconnection and atmospheric dynamic feedback when involving the Pacific internal variability, resulting in more precipitation occurrence. Further analyses show that the enhanced stationary Rossby wave propagation over Eurasia and strengthened transient eddy activity over North Pacific could contribute to the anomalous cyclone over the ITP and weakened East Asian westerly jet, which built a pathway for the external forcing and Pacific internal variability collaboratively impacting the decadal increase in precipitation in the ITP. These results can improve our understanding of ITP summer precipitation attribution and can be applied to emergent constraints on future decadal precipitation prediction. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T10:16:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0922a430ff7b44fca140bfc62af02abd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T10:16:24Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-0922a430ff7b44fca140bfc62af02abd2023-05-21T11:12:15ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222023-05-016111010.1038/s41612-023-00369-4Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water towerYong Liu0Huijun Wang1Huopo Chen2Zhongshi Zhang3Hua Li4Bo Liu5Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of GeosciencesNansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesNansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesDepartment of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of GeosciencesKey Laboratory of Hydrometeorological Disaster Mechanism and Warning of Ministry of Water Resources/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyDepartment of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of GeosciencesAbstract The increased precipitation in the Asian water tower has prompted the abrupt lake expansion and increased runoff, significantly reshaping the water resource redistribution in the Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP). However, the dynamic attribution behind this decadal increment remains unclear. Here, analysis of observations, large ensemble simulations, and pacemaker experiments indicates that this decadal increase was mainly attributed to the synergistic effects of the external forcing (anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions) and the Pacific internal variability, while the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean play a secondary role. Observations and simulations show that thermodynamic and dynamic effects work collaboratively to this increase. Remarkably, the upper-level dynamic convergence over the ITP would be enhanced through teleconnection and atmospheric dynamic feedback when involving the Pacific internal variability, resulting in more precipitation occurrence. Further analyses show that the enhanced stationary Rossby wave propagation over Eurasia and strengthened transient eddy activity over North Pacific could contribute to the anomalous cyclone over the ITP and weakened East Asian westerly jet, which built a pathway for the external forcing and Pacific internal variability collaboratively impacting the decadal increase in precipitation in the ITP. These results can improve our understanding of ITP summer precipitation attribution and can be applied to emergent constraints on future decadal precipitation prediction.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00369-4 |
| spellingShingle | Yong Liu Huijun Wang Huopo Chen Zhongshi Zhang Hua Li Bo Liu Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water tower npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water tower |
| title_full | Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water tower |
| title_fullStr | Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water tower |
| title_full_unstemmed | Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water tower |
| title_short | Anthropogenic forcing and Pacific internal variability-determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the Asian water tower |
| title_sort | anthropogenic forcing and pacific internal variability determined decadal increase in summer precipitation over the asian water tower |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00369-4 |
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