Prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers.
To develop prognostic nomograms for predicting outcomes in patients with locally advanced rectal cancers who do not receive preoperative treatment.A total of 883 patients with stage II-III rectal cancers were retrospectively collected from a single institution. Survival analyses were performed to as...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2014-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4149564?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1818047771245019136 |
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| author | Junjie Peng Ying Ding Shanshan Tu Debing Shi Liang Sun Xinxiang Li Hongbin Wu Sanjun Cai |
| author_facet | Junjie Peng Ying Ding Shanshan Tu Debing Shi Liang Sun Xinxiang Li Hongbin Wu Sanjun Cai |
| author_sort | Junjie Peng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To develop prognostic nomograms for predicting outcomes in patients with locally advanced rectal cancers who do not receive preoperative treatment.A total of 883 patients with stage II-III rectal cancers were retrospectively collected from a single institution. Survival analyses were performed to assess each variable for overall survival (OS), local recurrence (LR) and distant metastases (DM). Cox models were performed to develop a predictive model for each endpoint. The performance of model prediction was validated by cross validation and on an independent group of patients.The 5-year LR, DM and OS rates were 22.3%, 32.7% and 63.8%, respectively. Two prognostic nomograms were successfully developed to predict 5-year OS and DM-free survival rates, with c-index of 0.70 (95% CI = [0.66, 0.73]) and 0.68 (95% CI = [0.64, 0.72]) on the original dataset, and 0.76 (95% CI = [0.67, 0.86]) and 0.73 (95% CI = [0.63, 0.83]) on the validation dataset, respectively. Factors in our models included age, gender, carcinoembryonic antigen value, tumor location, T stage, N stage, metastatic lymph nodes ratio, adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy. Predicted by our nomogram, substantial variability in terms of 5-year OS and DM-free survival was observed within each TNM stage category.The prognostic nomograms integrated demographic and clinicopathological factors to account for tumor and patient heterogeneity, and thereby provided a more individualized outcome prognostication. Our individualized prediction nomograms could help patients with preoperatively under-staged rectal cancer about their postoperative treatment strategies and follow-up protocols. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T10:11:05Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-093bbac1789743f6a20fee4a6f06f16b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T10:11:05Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
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| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-093bbac1789743f6a20fee4a6f06f16b2022-12-22T01:53:07ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032014-01-0198e10634410.1371/journal.pone.0106344Prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers.Junjie PengYing DingShanshan TuDebing ShiLiang SunXinxiang LiHongbin WuSanjun CaiTo develop prognostic nomograms for predicting outcomes in patients with locally advanced rectal cancers who do not receive preoperative treatment.A total of 883 patients with stage II-III rectal cancers were retrospectively collected from a single institution. Survival analyses were performed to assess each variable for overall survival (OS), local recurrence (LR) and distant metastases (DM). Cox models were performed to develop a predictive model for each endpoint. The performance of model prediction was validated by cross validation and on an independent group of patients.The 5-year LR, DM and OS rates were 22.3%, 32.7% and 63.8%, respectively. Two prognostic nomograms were successfully developed to predict 5-year OS and DM-free survival rates, with c-index of 0.70 (95% CI = [0.66, 0.73]) and 0.68 (95% CI = [0.64, 0.72]) on the original dataset, and 0.76 (95% CI = [0.67, 0.86]) and 0.73 (95% CI = [0.63, 0.83]) on the validation dataset, respectively. Factors in our models included age, gender, carcinoembryonic antigen value, tumor location, T stage, N stage, metastatic lymph nodes ratio, adjuvant chemotherapy and chemoradiotherapy. Predicted by our nomogram, substantial variability in terms of 5-year OS and DM-free survival was observed within each TNM stage category.The prognostic nomograms integrated demographic and clinicopathological factors to account for tumor and patient heterogeneity, and thereby provided a more individualized outcome prognostication. Our individualized prediction nomograms could help patients with preoperatively under-staged rectal cancer about their postoperative treatment strategies and follow-up protocols.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4149564?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Junjie Peng Ying Ding Shanshan Tu Debing Shi Liang Sun Xinxiang Li Hongbin Wu Sanjun Cai Prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers. PLoS ONE |
| title | Prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers. |
| title_full | Prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers. |
| title_fullStr | Prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers. |
| title_short | Prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers. |
| title_sort | prognostic nomograms for predicting survival and distant metastases in locally advanced rectal cancers |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4149564?pdf=render |
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