Numerical Analysis of Storm Surges on Canada’s Western Arctic Coastline
A numerical study was conducted to characterize the probability and intensity of storm surge hazards in Canada’s western Arctic. The utility of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) dataset to force numerical simulations of storm surges was explored....
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/9/3/326 |
| _version_ | 1797541157901697024 |
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| author | Joseph Kim Enda Murphy Ioan Nistor Sean Ferguson Mitchel Provan |
| author_facet | Joseph Kim Enda Murphy Ioan Nistor Sean Ferguson Mitchel Provan |
| author_sort | Joseph Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A numerical study was conducted to characterize the probability and intensity of storm surge hazards in Canada’s western Arctic. The utility of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) dataset to force numerical simulations of storm surges was explored. Fifty historical storm surge events that were captured on a tide gauge near Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, were simulated using a two-dimensional (depth-averaged) hydrodynamic model accounting for the influence of sea ice on air-sea momentum transfer. The extent of sea ice and the duration of the ice season has been reducing in the Arctic region, which may contribute to increasing risk from storm surge-driven hazards. Comparisons between winter storm events under present-day ice concentrations and future open-water scenarios revealed that the decline in ice cover has potential to result in storm surges that are up to three times higher. The numerical model was also used to hindcast a significant surge event that was not recorded by the tide gauge, but for which driftwood lines along the coast provided insights to the high-water marks. Compared to measurements at proximate meteorological stations, the ERA5 reanalysis dataset provided reasonable estimates of atmospheric pressure but did not accurately capture peak wind speeds during storm surge events. By adjusting the wind drag coefficients to compensate, reasonably accurate predictions of storm surges were attained for most of the simulated events. The extreme value probability distributions (i.e., return periods and values) of the storm surges were significantly altered when events absent from the tide gauge record were included in the frequency analysis, demonstrating the value of non-conventional data sources, such as driftwood line surveys, in supporting coastal hazard assessments in remote regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:11:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-095d13d1c6904f758d087d81ad1eb8ec |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2077-1312 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T13:11:14Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj.art-095d13d1c6904f758d087d81ad1eb8ec2023-11-21T10:41:42ZengMDPI AGJournal of Marine Science and Engineering2077-13122021-03-019332610.3390/jmse9030326Numerical Analysis of Storm Surges on Canada’s Western Arctic CoastlineJoseph Kim0Enda Murphy1Ioan Nistor2Sean Ferguson3Mitchel Provan4Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, CanadaDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, CanadaDepartment of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, CanadaOcean, Coastal and River Engineering Research Centre, National Research Council Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0R6, CanadaOcean, Coastal and River Engineering Research Centre, National Research Council Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0R6, CanadaA numerical study was conducted to characterize the probability and intensity of storm surge hazards in Canada’s western Arctic. The utility of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) dataset to force numerical simulations of storm surges was explored. Fifty historical storm surge events that were captured on a tide gauge near Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, were simulated using a two-dimensional (depth-averaged) hydrodynamic model accounting for the influence of sea ice on air-sea momentum transfer. The extent of sea ice and the duration of the ice season has been reducing in the Arctic region, which may contribute to increasing risk from storm surge-driven hazards. Comparisons between winter storm events under present-day ice concentrations and future open-water scenarios revealed that the decline in ice cover has potential to result in storm surges that are up to three times higher. The numerical model was also used to hindcast a significant surge event that was not recorded by the tide gauge, but for which driftwood lines along the coast provided insights to the high-water marks. Compared to measurements at proximate meteorological stations, the ERA5 reanalysis dataset provided reasonable estimates of atmospheric pressure but did not accurately capture peak wind speeds during storm surge events. By adjusting the wind drag coefficients to compensate, reasonably accurate predictions of storm surges were attained for most of the simulated events. The extreme value probability distributions (i.e., return periods and values) of the storm surges were significantly altered when events absent from the tide gauge record were included in the frequency analysis, demonstrating the value of non-conventional data sources, such as driftwood line surveys, in supporting coastal hazard assessments in remote regions.https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/9/3/326storm surgeArcticfloodsea icecoastal hazardsclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Joseph Kim Enda Murphy Ioan Nistor Sean Ferguson Mitchel Provan Numerical Analysis of Storm Surges on Canada’s Western Arctic Coastline Journal of Marine Science and Engineering storm surge Arctic flood sea ice coastal hazards climate change |
| title | Numerical Analysis of Storm Surges on Canada’s Western Arctic Coastline |
| title_full | Numerical Analysis of Storm Surges on Canada’s Western Arctic Coastline |
| title_fullStr | Numerical Analysis of Storm Surges on Canada’s Western Arctic Coastline |
| title_full_unstemmed | Numerical Analysis of Storm Surges on Canada’s Western Arctic Coastline |
| title_short | Numerical Analysis of Storm Surges on Canada’s Western Arctic Coastline |
| title_sort | numerical analysis of storm surges on canada s western arctic coastline |
| topic | storm surge Arctic flood sea ice coastal hazards climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/9/3/326 |
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