Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy
Inundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.628061/full |
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| author | Roberto Tonini Pio Di Manna Stefano Lorito Jacopo Selva Manuela Volpe Fabrizio Romano Roberto Basili Beatriz Brizuela Manuel J. Castro Marc de la Asunción Daniela Di Bucci Mauro Dolce Alexander Garcia Steven J. Gibbons Sylfest Glimsdal José M. González-Vida Finn Løvholt Jorge Macías Alessio Piatanesi Luca Pizzimenti Carlos Sánchez-Linares Eutizio Vittori |
| author_facet | Roberto Tonini Pio Di Manna Stefano Lorito Jacopo Selva Manuela Volpe Fabrizio Romano Roberto Basili Beatriz Brizuela Manuel J. Castro Marc de la Asunción Daniela Di Bucci Mauro Dolce Alexander Garcia Steven J. Gibbons Sylfest Glimsdal José M. González-Vida Finn Løvholt Jorge Macías Alessio Piatanesi Luca Pizzimenti Carlos Sánchez-Linares Eutizio Vittori |
| author_sort | Roberto Tonini |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Inundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model. Based on a given level of acceptable risk, Italian authorities in charge for this task recommended to consider, as design hazard intensity, the average return period of 2500 years and the 84th percentile of the hazard model uncertainty. An available, regional-scale tsunami hazard model was used that covers the entire Italian coastline. Safety factors based on analysis of run-up variability and an empirical coastal dissipation law on a digital terrain model (DTM) were applied to convert the regional hazard into the design run-up and the corresponding evacuation maps with a GIS-based approach. Since the regional hazard cannot fully capture the local-scale variability, this simplified and conservative approach is considered a viable and feasible practice to inform local coastal risk management in the absence of high-resolution hazard models. The present work is a first attempt to quantify the uncertainty stemming from such procedure. We compare the GIS-based inundation maps informed by a regional model with those obtained from a local high-resolution hazard model. Two locations on the coast of eastern Sicily were considered, and the local hazard was addressed with the same seismic model as the regional one, but using a higher-resolution DTM and massive numerical inundation calculations with the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA nonlinear shallow water code. This study shows that the GIS-based inundation maps used for planning deal conservatively with potential hazard underestimation at the local scale, stemming from typically unmodeled uncertainties in the numerical source and tsunami evolution models. The GIS-based maps used for planning fall within the estimated “error-bar” due to such uncertainties. The analysis also demonstrates the need to develop local assessments to serve very specific risk mitigation actions to reduce the uncertainty. More in general, the presented case-studies highlight the importance to explore ways of dealing with uncertainty hidden within the high-resolution numerical inundation models, e.g., related to the crude parameterization of the bottom friction, or the inaccuracy of the DTM. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-15T00:26:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0961b5ea6c404289af9ad494a6ce518e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-15T00:26:27Z |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-0961b5ea6c404289af9ad494a6ce518e2022-12-21T22:42:09ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632021-03-01910.3389/feart.2021.628061628061Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in ItalyRoberto Tonini0Pio Di Manna1Stefano Lorito2Jacopo Selva3Manuela Volpe4Fabrizio Romano5Roberto Basili6Beatriz Brizuela7Manuel J. Castro8Marc de la Asunción9Daniela Di Bucci10Mauro Dolce11Alexander Garcia12Steven J. Gibbons13Sylfest Glimsdal14José M. González-Vida15Finn Løvholt16Jorge Macías17Alessio Piatanesi18Luca Pizzimenti19Carlos Sánchez-Linares20Eutizio Vittori21Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, Roma, ItalyIstituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Roma, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, Roma, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, Roma, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, Roma, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, Roma, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, Roma, ItalyDpto. de Análisis Matemático, Estadística e Investigación Operativa y Matemática Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, Málaga, SpainDpto. de Análisis Matemático, Estadística e Investigación Operativa y Matemática Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, Málaga, SpainDipartimento della Protezione Civile, Rome, ItalyDipartimento della Protezione Civile, Rome, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, ItalyNorwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, NorwayNorwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, NorwayDpto. de Matemática Aplicada, ETSII, Universidad de Málaga, Málaga, SpainNorwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, NorwayDpto. de Análisis Matemático, Estadística e Investigación Operativa y Matemática Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, Málaga, SpainIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, Roma, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, Roma, ItalyDpto. de Análisis Matemático, Estadística e Investigación Operativa y Matemática Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Málaga, Málaga, SpainIstituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, Roma, ItalyInundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model. Based on a given level of acceptable risk, Italian authorities in charge for this task recommended to consider, as design hazard intensity, the average return period of 2500 years and the 84th percentile of the hazard model uncertainty. An available, regional-scale tsunami hazard model was used that covers the entire Italian coastline. Safety factors based on analysis of run-up variability and an empirical coastal dissipation law on a digital terrain model (DTM) were applied to convert the regional hazard into the design run-up and the corresponding evacuation maps with a GIS-based approach. Since the regional hazard cannot fully capture the local-scale variability, this simplified and conservative approach is considered a viable and feasible practice to inform local coastal risk management in the absence of high-resolution hazard models. The present work is a first attempt to quantify the uncertainty stemming from such procedure. We compare the GIS-based inundation maps informed by a regional model with those obtained from a local high-resolution hazard model. Two locations on the coast of eastern Sicily were considered, and the local hazard was addressed with the same seismic model as the regional one, but using a higher-resolution DTM and massive numerical inundation calculations with the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA nonlinear shallow water code. This study shows that the GIS-based inundation maps used for planning deal conservatively with potential hazard underestimation at the local scale, stemming from typically unmodeled uncertainties in the numerical source and tsunami evolution models. The GIS-based maps used for planning fall within the estimated “error-bar” due to such uncertainties. The analysis also demonstrates the need to develop local assessments to serve very specific risk mitigation actions to reduce the uncertainty. More in general, the presented case-studies highlight the importance to explore ways of dealing with uncertainty hidden within the high-resolution numerical inundation models, e.g., related to the crude parameterization of the bottom friction, or the inaccuracy of the DTM.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.628061/fulltsunamisinundation mapsearly warningprobabilistic hazardnumerical modelingItaly |
| spellingShingle | Roberto Tonini Pio Di Manna Stefano Lorito Jacopo Selva Manuela Volpe Fabrizio Romano Roberto Basili Beatriz Brizuela Manuel J. Castro Marc de la Asunción Daniela Di Bucci Mauro Dolce Alexander Garcia Steven J. Gibbons Sylfest Glimsdal José M. González-Vida Finn Løvholt Jorge Macías Alessio Piatanesi Luca Pizzimenti Carlos Sánchez-Linares Eutizio Vittori Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy Frontiers in Earth Science tsunamis inundation maps early warning probabilistic hazard numerical modeling Italy |
| title | Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy |
| title_full | Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy |
| title_fullStr | Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy |
| title_short | Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy |
| title_sort | testing tsunami inundation maps for evacuation planning in italy |
| topic | tsunamis inundation maps early warning probabilistic hazard numerical modeling Italy |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.628061/full |
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