Evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
Abstract Climate change affects ecosystems, agriculture, human health, forestry, and water resource availability. This study is mainly aimed at assessing the climate change effect on the water resources of the Kessie Watershed in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. The updated Coupled Model Interco...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Applied Water Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-023-01947-w |
| _version_ | 1827905341879222272 |
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| author | Asnake Enawgaw Amognehegn Asmare Belay Nigussie Dessalegn Worku Ayalew Fikru F. Abera Mihret Ayana |
| author_facet | Asnake Enawgaw Amognehegn Asmare Belay Nigussie Dessalegn Worku Ayalew Fikru F. Abera Mihret Ayana |
| author_sort | Asnake Enawgaw Amognehegn |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change affects ecosystems, agriculture, human health, forestry, and water resource availability. This study is mainly aimed at assessing the climate change effect on the water resources of the Kessie Watershed in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. The updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP-6) data outputs were used. The three climate model outputs: ACESS_ESM1-5, FGOALS_g3, and GFDL_ESM4 with two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios, were used. The climate model output rainfall and temperature data were downscaled to the station level through bias correction. The catchment hydrology was represented by the SWAT—Soil and Water Assessment Tool—through calibration and validation. Future temperatures and rainfall change were evaluated by the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. Future climate change trend analysis and streamflow simulation were done on two time horizons: the 2050s (2041–2070) and the 2080s (2071–2100). The baseline streamflow data (1985–2014) were used as a reference. The global climate model projection data indicated mean annual precipitation and temperatures show a slight increase for the future in both scenarios for all climate model outputs. According to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, mean annual precipitation is expected to increase by 5% and 4.89% in the 2050s and 10.13% and 6.8% in the 2080s based on ACCESS_ESM1-5; 4.7% and 3.8% in the 2050s and 4.3% and 4.84% in the 2080s based on FGOALS_g3; and 4.67% and 3.81% in the 2050s and 4.67% and 3.81% based on GFDL_ESM4 models data. Yearly average maximum temperature may increase by 3.62 °C and 1.87 °C in the 2050s and 3.31 °C and 2.99 °C in the 2080s based on ACCESS ESM1-5, 1.76 °C and 1.25 °C in the 2050s and 3.44 °C and 2.61 °C in the 2080s based on FGOALS-g3, and 2.15 °C and 3.83 °C in the 2050s and 1.37 °C and 2.66 °C in the 2080s based on GFDL-ESM4 model data. Similarly, the mean annual minimum temperature is also expected to increase by 2.73 °C and 1.90 °C in the 2050s and 5.63 °C and 4.52 °C in the 2080s based on ACCESS ESM1-5, 3.04 °C and 2.43 °C in the 2050s and 3.55 °C and 4.36 °C in the 2080s based on FGOALS-g3, and 2.31 °C and 3.29 °C in the 2050s, and 3.16 °C and 3.87 °C in the 2080s based on GFDL-ESM4 model data. The streamflow is also expected to increase. In the 2050s, simulated annual streamflow is expected to increase from 12.1 to 21.8% and 9.8 to 15.4% in SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, whereas in the 2080s, the change is expected to increase from 15.14 to 24.08% and 13.08 to 41% in SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Future water resource potential of the case study watershed seems able to support irrigation and other projects. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:40:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0969bba6354c41adbd3ffd2bd976fc37 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-5487 2190-5495 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T00:40:17Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Applied Water Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-0969bba6354c41adbd3ffd2bd976fc372023-07-09T11:20:44ZengSpringerOpenApplied Water Science2190-54872190-54952023-06-0113712010.1007/s13201-023-01947-wEvaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, EthiopiaAsnake Enawgaw Amognehegn0Asmare Belay Nigussie1Dessalegn Worku Ayalew2Fikru F. Abera3Mihret Ayana4School of Civil and Water Resource Engineering and Architecture, Kombolcha Institute of Technology, Wollo UniversitySchool of Civil and Water Resource Engineering and Architecture, Kombolcha Institute of Technology, Wollo UniversityDepartment of Soil Resources and Watershed Management, College of Agriculture, Woldia UniversitySchool of Civil and Water Resource Engineering and Architecture, Kombolcha Institute of Technology, Wollo UniversitySchool of Civil and Water Resource Engineering and Architecture, Kombolcha Institute of Technology, Wollo UniversityAbstract Climate change affects ecosystems, agriculture, human health, forestry, and water resource availability. This study is mainly aimed at assessing the climate change effect on the water resources of the Kessie Watershed in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. The updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP-6) data outputs were used. The three climate model outputs: ACESS_ESM1-5, FGOALS_g3, and GFDL_ESM4 with two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios, were used. The climate model output rainfall and temperature data were downscaled to the station level through bias correction. The catchment hydrology was represented by the SWAT—Soil and Water Assessment Tool—through calibration and validation. Future temperatures and rainfall change were evaluated by the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. Future climate change trend analysis and streamflow simulation were done on two time horizons: the 2050s (2041–2070) and the 2080s (2071–2100). The baseline streamflow data (1985–2014) were used as a reference. The global climate model projection data indicated mean annual precipitation and temperatures show a slight increase for the future in both scenarios for all climate model outputs. According to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, mean annual precipitation is expected to increase by 5% and 4.89% in the 2050s and 10.13% and 6.8% in the 2080s based on ACCESS_ESM1-5; 4.7% and 3.8% in the 2050s and 4.3% and 4.84% in the 2080s based on FGOALS_g3; and 4.67% and 3.81% in the 2050s and 4.67% and 3.81% based on GFDL_ESM4 models data. Yearly average maximum temperature may increase by 3.62 °C and 1.87 °C in the 2050s and 3.31 °C and 2.99 °C in the 2080s based on ACCESS ESM1-5, 1.76 °C and 1.25 °C in the 2050s and 3.44 °C and 2.61 °C in the 2080s based on FGOALS-g3, and 2.15 °C and 3.83 °C in the 2050s and 1.37 °C and 2.66 °C in the 2080s based on GFDL-ESM4 model data. Similarly, the mean annual minimum temperature is also expected to increase by 2.73 °C and 1.90 °C in the 2050s and 5.63 °C and 4.52 °C in the 2080s based on ACCESS ESM1-5, 3.04 °C and 2.43 °C in the 2050s and 3.55 °C and 4.36 °C in the 2080s based on FGOALS-g3, and 2.31 °C and 3.29 °C in the 2050s, and 3.16 °C and 3.87 °C in the 2080s based on GFDL-ESM4 model data. The streamflow is also expected to increase. In the 2050s, simulated annual streamflow is expected to increase from 12.1 to 21.8% and 9.8 to 15.4% in SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, whereas in the 2080s, the change is expected to increase from 15.14 to 24.08% and 13.08 to 41% in SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Future water resource potential of the case study watershed seems able to support irrigation and other projects.https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-023-01947-wClimate changeCMIP-6 climate modelSWATUpper Blue Nile Basin |
| spellingShingle | Asnake Enawgaw Amognehegn Asmare Belay Nigussie Dessalegn Worku Ayalew Fikru F. Abera Mihret Ayana Evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia Applied Water Science Climate change CMIP-6 climate model SWAT Upper Blue Nile Basin |
| title | Evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full | Evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_short | Evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of Kessie Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia |
| title_sort | evaluating climate change impact on the hydrology of kessie watershed upper blue nile basin ethiopia |
| topic | Climate change CMIP-6 climate model SWAT Upper Blue Nile Basin |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-023-01947-w |
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