Assessing SimCLIM climate model accuracy in projecting Southern Levantine basin air temperature trends up to 2100

Abstract This study evaluates the validity of forecasting air temperature ranges in 2100 using the SimCLIM climate projection model at spatial and temporal scales within the Southern Levantine basin. The model utilized historical air temperature data from 2000 to 2016, collected at seven southeaster...

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Main Authors: Nada M. Salama, Rongshuo Cai, Kareem Tonbol
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2023-11-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-46286-7
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author Nada M. Salama
Rongshuo Cai
Kareem Tonbol
author_facet Nada M. Salama
Rongshuo Cai
Kareem Tonbol
author_sort Nada M. Salama
collection DOAJ
description Abstract This study evaluates the validity of forecasting air temperature ranges in 2100 using the SimCLIM climate projection model at spatial and temporal scales within the Southern Levantine basin. The model utilized historical air temperature data from 2000 to 2016, collected at seven southeastern Mediterranean stations, as well as 74 climate pattern ensembles integrated within SimCLIM. A combination of 40 global climate models (GCMs) and IPCC AR5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios embedded in SimCLIM was employed to forecast mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures for 2100.The findings reveal that the average temperature increase in 2100, relative to the representative concentration pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, will range between 0.8–1.17 °C, 1.48–2.0 °C, 2.1–3.8 °C, and 3.9–4.6 °C, respectively. Due to its acceptable accuracy, the SimCLIM model, incorporating 40 GCMs and 74 climate pattern ensembles, is highly recommended for forecasting future climate conditions. The model was evaluated using available temperature records in the study area, yielding a prediction percentage error of 2%, which strongly supports the use of SimCLIM.
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spelling doaj.art-0972231ca4c3448e90ddf1a5afc42e9a2023-11-05T12:12:53ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-11-0113113510.1038/s41598-023-46286-7Assessing SimCLIM climate model accuracy in projecting Southern Levantine basin air temperature trends up to 2100Nada M. Salama0Rongshuo Cai1Kareem Tonbol2Oceanography Department, Faculty of Science, Alexandria UniversityThird Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural ResourcesCollege of Maritime Transport and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime TransportAbstract This study evaluates the validity of forecasting air temperature ranges in 2100 using the SimCLIM climate projection model at spatial and temporal scales within the Southern Levantine basin. The model utilized historical air temperature data from 2000 to 2016, collected at seven southeastern Mediterranean stations, as well as 74 climate pattern ensembles integrated within SimCLIM. A combination of 40 global climate models (GCMs) and IPCC AR5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios embedded in SimCLIM was employed to forecast mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures for 2100.The findings reveal that the average temperature increase in 2100, relative to the representative concentration pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, will range between 0.8–1.17 °C, 1.48–2.0 °C, 2.1–3.8 °C, and 3.9–4.6 °C, respectively. Due to its acceptable accuracy, the SimCLIM model, incorporating 40 GCMs and 74 climate pattern ensembles, is highly recommended for forecasting future climate conditions. The model was evaluated using available temperature records in the study area, yielding a prediction percentage error of 2%, which strongly supports the use of SimCLIM.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-46286-7
spellingShingle Nada M. Salama
Rongshuo Cai
Kareem Tonbol
Assessing SimCLIM climate model accuracy in projecting Southern Levantine basin air temperature trends up to 2100
Scientific Reports
title Assessing SimCLIM climate model accuracy in projecting Southern Levantine basin air temperature trends up to 2100
title_full Assessing SimCLIM climate model accuracy in projecting Southern Levantine basin air temperature trends up to 2100
title_fullStr Assessing SimCLIM climate model accuracy in projecting Southern Levantine basin air temperature trends up to 2100
title_full_unstemmed Assessing SimCLIM climate model accuracy in projecting Southern Levantine basin air temperature trends up to 2100
title_short Assessing SimCLIM climate model accuracy in projecting Southern Levantine basin air temperature trends up to 2100
title_sort assessing simclim climate model accuracy in projecting southern levantine basin air temperature trends up to 2100
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-46286-7
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AT rongshuocai assessingsimclimclimatemodelaccuracyinprojectingsouthernlevantinebasinairtemperaturetrendsupto2100
AT kareemtonbol assessingsimclimclimatemodelaccuracyinprojectingsouthernlevantinebasinairtemperaturetrendsupto2100