Spatial varying and co-occurring future climate changes over a heterogeneous river basin: a multivariate approach
This study explored co-occurring climate-scale changes across the physioclimatically heterogeneous Tapi River basin (TRB) for baseline (1991–2020) and future periods (2021–2100). We used a novel multivariate framework comprising multi-model ensembles of bias-corrected rainfall and temperature from f...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IWA Publishing
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
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| Online Access: | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/14/10/3539 |
| _version_ | 1827278813612998656 |
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| author | Lalit Kumar Gehlot P. L. Patel P. V. Timbadiya |
| author_facet | Lalit Kumar Gehlot P. L. Patel P. V. Timbadiya |
| author_sort | Lalit Kumar Gehlot |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study explored co-occurring climate-scale changes across the physioclimatically heterogeneous Tapi River basin (TRB) for baseline (1991–2020) and future periods (2021–2100). We used a novel multivariate framework comprising multi-model ensembles of bias-corrected rainfall and temperature from five global climate models (CMIP-5), 12 climate indices (six for each variable), and principal component analysis (PCA). The univariate assessment showed statistically significant warming of 1.1–1.8 °C (1.5–4.0 °C) under RCP-4.5 (RCP-8.5) scenarios. The Middle Tapi basin showed a substantial shift towards a wetter climate regime in the future. The multivariate assessment of spatially varying climate indices resulted in four significant principal components (PCs). The relative evaluation of these PCs showed that nearly 41.6% (47.0%) of the TRB is vulnerable to the transition of the current climatic patterns to the dry–warm (wet–warm) regime under RCP-8.5 (RCP-4.5) in the near (distant) future. On the optimistic side, under RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5, 53.0% and 69.8% of the TRB displayed signs of uniform temporal distribution with wet rainfall regimes and profound warming towards the end of the 21st century, respectively. The study outcomes would help to devise policies for regional sustainability and adopt mitigation measures to enhance resiliency in a changing climate.
HIGHLIGHTS
Principal component analysis for proficient hydroclimatic variability assessments.;
Warming-induced changes in spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables.;
Pronounced night-time warming over day-time warming.;
Spatially heterogeneous climate transitions towards dry–warm and wet–warm regimes in the future.;
Exposure of human health, agriculture, and water resources to climate risk in future.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T11:14:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0993b4b63233422d88b35f3e78df672b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2040-2244 2408-9354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T08:07:51Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-0993b4b63233422d88b35f3e78df672b2024-04-17T08:35:21ZengIWA PublishingJournal of Water and Climate Change2040-22442408-93542023-10-0114103539355810.2166/wcc.2023.206206Spatial varying and co-occurring future climate changes over a heterogeneous river basin: a multivariate approachLalit Kumar Gehlot0P. L. Patel1P. V. Timbadiya2 Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Surat, Gujarat 395007, India Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Surat, Gujarat 395007, India Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Surat, Gujarat 395007, India This study explored co-occurring climate-scale changes across the physioclimatically heterogeneous Tapi River basin (TRB) for baseline (1991–2020) and future periods (2021–2100). We used a novel multivariate framework comprising multi-model ensembles of bias-corrected rainfall and temperature from five global climate models (CMIP-5), 12 climate indices (six for each variable), and principal component analysis (PCA). The univariate assessment showed statistically significant warming of 1.1–1.8 °C (1.5–4.0 °C) under RCP-4.5 (RCP-8.5) scenarios. The Middle Tapi basin showed a substantial shift towards a wetter climate regime in the future. The multivariate assessment of spatially varying climate indices resulted in four significant principal components (PCs). The relative evaluation of these PCs showed that nearly 41.6% (47.0%) of the TRB is vulnerable to the transition of the current climatic patterns to the dry–warm (wet–warm) regime under RCP-8.5 (RCP-4.5) in the near (distant) future. On the optimistic side, under RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5, 53.0% and 69.8% of the TRB displayed signs of uniform temporal distribution with wet rainfall regimes and profound warming towards the end of the 21st century, respectively. The study outcomes would help to devise policies for regional sustainability and adopt mitigation measures to enhance resiliency in a changing climate. HIGHLIGHTS Principal component analysis for proficient hydroclimatic variability assessments.; Warming-induced changes in spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables.; Pronounced night-time warming over day-time warming.; Spatially heterogeneous climate transitions towards dry–warm and wet–warm regimes in the future.; Exposure of human health, agriculture, and water resources to climate risk in future.;http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/14/10/3539etccdihydroclimatic variabilityprincipal component analysisrainfalltapi river basintemperature |
| spellingShingle | Lalit Kumar Gehlot P. L. Patel P. V. Timbadiya Spatial varying and co-occurring future climate changes over a heterogeneous river basin: a multivariate approach Journal of Water and Climate Change etccdi hydroclimatic variability principal component analysis rainfall tapi river basin temperature |
| title | Spatial varying and co-occurring future climate changes over a heterogeneous river basin: a multivariate approach |
| title_full | Spatial varying and co-occurring future climate changes over a heterogeneous river basin: a multivariate approach |
| title_fullStr | Spatial varying and co-occurring future climate changes over a heterogeneous river basin: a multivariate approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial varying and co-occurring future climate changes over a heterogeneous river basin: a multivariate approach |
| title_short | Spatial varying and co-occurring future climate changes over a heterogeneous river basin: a multivariate approach |
| title_sort | spatial varying and co occurring future climate changes over a heterogeneous river basin a multivariate approach |
| topic | etccdi hydroclimatic variability principal component analysis rainfall tapi river basin temperature |
| url | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/14/10/3539 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lalitkumargehlot spatialvaryingandcooccurringfutureclimatechangesoveraheterogeneousriverbasinamultivariateapproach AT plpatel spatialvaryingandcooccurringfutureclimatechangesoveraheterogeneousriverbasinamultivariateapproach AT pvtimbadiya spatialvaryingandcooccurringfutureclimatechangesoveraheterogeneousriverbasinamultivariateapproach |