Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models
Since mid-November 2019, when the first SARS-CoV-2-infected patient was officially reported, the new coronavirus has affected over 10 million people from which half a million died during this short period. There is an urgent need to monitor, predict, and restrict COVID-19 in a more efficient manner....
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Microorganisms |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2607/8/8/1158 |
| _version_ | 1797560743468466176 |
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| author | Ovidiu-Dumitru Ilie Roxana-Oana Cojocariu Alin Ciobica Sergiu-Ioan Timofte Ioannis Mavroudis Bogdan Doroftei |
| author_facet | Ovidiu-Dumitru Ilie Roxana-Oana Cojocariu Alin Ciobica Sergiu-Ioan Timofte Ioannis Mavroudis Bogdan Doroftei |
| author_sort | Ovidiu-Dumitru Ilie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Since mid-November 2019, when the first SARS-CoV-2-infected patient was officially reported, the new coronavirus has affected over 10 million people from which half a million died during this short period. There is an urgent need to monitor, predict, and restrict COVID-19 in a more efficient manner. This is why Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been developed and used to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Ukraine, Romania, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, USA, Brazil, and India, these last three countries being otherwise the most affected presently. To increase accuracy, the daily prevalence data of COVID-19 from 10 March 2020 to 10 July 2020 were collected from the official website of the Romanian Government GOV.RO, World Health Organization (WHO), and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) websites. Several ARIMA models were formulated with different ARIMA parameters. ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 1, 1), ARIMA (1, 0, 3), ARIMA (1, 2, 0), ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (0, 2, 1), and ARIMA (0, 2, 0) models were chosen as the best models, depending on their lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values for Ukraine, Romania, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, USA, Brazil, and India (4.70244, 1.40016, 2.76751, 2.16733, 2.98154, 2.11239, 3.21569, 4.10596, 2.78051). This study demonstrates that ARIMA models are suitable for making predictions during the current crisis and offers an idea of the epidemiological stage of these regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:04:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-09f3fbf4bb0846e99f2df95138da29ad |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-2607 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T18:04:48Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Microorganisms |
| spelling | doaj.art-09f3fbf4bb0846e99f2df95138da29ad2023-11-20T08:31:16ZengMDPI AGMicroorganisms2076-26072020-07-0188115810.3390/microorganisms8081158Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA ModelsOvidiu-Dumitru Ilie0Roxana-Oana Cojocariu1Alin Ciobica2Sergiu-Ioan Timofte3Ioannis Mavroudis4Bogdan Doroftei5Department of Research, Faculty of Biology, “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University, 700505 Iasi, RomaniaDepartment of Research, Faculty of Biology, “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University, 700505 Iasi, RomaniaDepartment of Research, Faculty of Biology, “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University, 700505 Iasi, RomaniaDepartment of Biology, Faculty of Biology, “Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University, 700505 Iasi, RomaniaLeeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, Great George St., Leeds LS1 3EX, UKFaculty of Medicine, University of Medicine and Pharmacy “Grigore T. Popa”, 700115 Iasi, RomaniaSince mid-November 2019, when the first SARS-CoV-2-infected patient was officially reported, the new coronavirus has affected over 10 million people from which half a million died during this short period. There is an urgent need to monitor, predict, and restrict COVID-19 in a more efficient manner. This is why Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been developed and used to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Ukraine, Romania, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, USA, Brazil, and India, these last three countries being otherwise the most affected presently. To increase accuracy, the daily prevalence data of COVID-19 from 10 March 2020 to 10 July 2020 were collected from the official website of the Romanian Government GOV.RO, World Health Organization (WHO), and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) websites. Several ARIMA models were formulated with different ARIMA parameters. ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 1, 1), ARIMA (1, 0, 3), ARIMA (1, 2, 0), ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (0, 2, 1), and ARIMA (0, 2, 0) models were chosen as the best models, depending on their lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values for Ukraine, Romania, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, USA, Brazil, and India (4.70244, 1.40016, 2.76751, 2.16733, 2.98154, 2.11239, 3.21569, 4.10596, 2.78051). This study demonstrates that ARIMA models are suitable for making predictions during the current crisis and offers an idea of the epidemiological stage of these regions.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2607/8/8/1158prevalenceincidenceEuropeAsiathe American continentsCOVID-19 |
| spellingShingle | Ovidiu-Dumitru Ilie Roxana-Oana Cojocariu Alin Ciobica Sergiu-Ioan Timofte Ioannis Mavroudis Bogdan Doroftei Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models Microorganisms prevalence incidence Europe Asia the American continents COVID-19 |
| title | Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models |
| title_full | Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models |
| title_short | Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models |
| title_sort | forecasting the spreading of covid 19 across nine countries from europe asia and the american continents using the arima models |
| topic | prevalence incidence Europe Asia the American continents COVID-19 |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2607/8/8/1158 |
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