Mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and impact of future temperature change on its transmission risk
BackgroundDengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Under the background of climate change, there are great challenges in the prevention and control of dengue fever, posing a serious health risk to the population.ObjectiveTo analyze the mechanism of...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Editorial Committee of Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine
2022-03-01
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| Series: | 环境与职业医学 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.jeom.org/article/cn/10.11836/JEOM21457 |
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| author | Jianguo ZHAO Guanhao HE Jianpeng XIAO Guanghu ZHU Tao LIU Jianxiong HU Weilin ZENG Xing LI Zhoupeng REN Wenjun MA |
| author_facet | Jianguo ZHAO Guanhao HE Jianpeng XIAO Guanghu ZHU Tao LIU Jianxiong HU Weilin ZENG Xing LI Zhoupeng REN Wenjun MA |
| author_sort | Jianguo ZHAO |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundDengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Under the background of climate change, there are great challenges in the prevention and control of dengue fever, posing a serious health risk to the population.ObjectiveTo analyze the mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and estimate the risk of dengue fever under different climate change scenarios by establishing a coupled human-mosquito dynamics model using Guangzhou as a research site, and to provide reference for adaptation to climate change.MethodsReported dengue fever cases and meteorological data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019 in Guangzhou were collected from Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention and China Meteorological Data Service Centre, respectively. The temperature data under three Representative Concentration Pahtyway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) scenarios in 2030s (2031–2040), 2060s (2061–2070), and 2090s (2091–2099) were calculated by five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. A dengue fever transmission dynamics (ELPSEI-SEIR) model was constructed to analyze the mechanism of temperature affecting dengue fever transmission by fitting the dengue fever epidemic trend from 2015–2019, and then the daily mean temperature under selected RCP scenarios for 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s was incorporated into the established dynamics model to predict the risk of dengue fever under different climate change scenarios in the future.ResultsFrom January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019, a total of 4 234 cases of dengue fever were reported in Guangzhou, including 3741 local cases and 493 imported cases. The regression results showed that the model well fitted the dengue fever cases in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2019, and the coefficient of determination R2 to evaluate goodness of fit and the root mean squared error were 0.82 and 1.96, respectively. A U-shaped or inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and mosquito habits could directly affect the number of mosquitoes and the transmission of dengue fever. We also found that temperature increase in most future scenarios could promote the transmission of dengue fever, and the epidemic period was significantly wider than the baseline stage. The epidemic of dengue fever would peak in the 2060s under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The estimated incidence of dengue fever was predicated to be highest in the 2030s and then decrease in the following years under RCP8.5, and in the 2090s, the incidence would decrease significantly, but the incidence peak would be earlier in each year, mainly from May to July.ConclusionTemperature can directly affect mosquito population and dengue fever transmission by affecting mosquito habits. The cases of dengue fever will increase under most climate scenarios in the future. However, the epidemic risk of dengue fever may be suppressed, and the epidemic season may be advanced under RCP8.5. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T23:13:26Z |
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| id | doaj.art-0a071fe8d250472d96a4947800008646 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2095-9982 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T23:13:26Z |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Committee of Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine |
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| series | 环境与职业医学 |
| spelling | doaj.art-0a071fe8d250472d96a49478000086462022-12-22T00:08:31ZengEditorial Committee of Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine环境与职业医学2095-99822022-03-0139330931410.11836/JEOM2145721457Mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and impact of future temperature change on its transmission riskJianguo ZHAO0Guanhao HE1Jianpeng XIAO2Guanghu ZHU3Tao LIU4Jianxiong HU5Weilin ZENG6Xing LI7Zhoupeng REN8Wenjun MA9Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511430, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511430, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511430, ChinaSchool of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, Guangxi 541004, ChinaSchool of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510632, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511430, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511430, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511430, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101, ChinaGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong 511430, ChinaBackgroundDengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Under the background of climate change, there are great challenges in the prevention and control of dengue fever, posing a serious health risk to the population.ObjectiveTo analyze the mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and estimate the risk of dengue fever under different climate change scenarios by establishing a coupled human-mosquito dynamics model using Guangzhou as a research site, and to provide reference for adaptation to climate change.MethodsReported dengue fever cases and meteorological data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019 in Guangzhou were collected from Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention and China Meteorological Data Service Centre, respectively. The temperature data under three Representative Concentration Pahtyway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) scenarios in 2030s (2031–2040), 2060s (2061–2070), and 2090s (2091–2099) were calculated by five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. A dengue fever transmission dynamics (ELPSEI-SEIR) model was constructed to analyze the mechanism of temperature affecting dengue fever transmission by fitting the dengue fever epidemic trend from 2015–2019, and then the daily mean temperature under selected RCP scenarios for 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s was incorporated into the established dynamics model to predict the risk of dengue fever under different climate change scenarios in the future.ResultsFrom January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019, a total of 4 234 cases of dengue fever were reported in Guangzhou, including 3741 local cases and 493 imported cases. The regression results showed that the model well fitted the dengue fever cases in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2019, and the coefficient of determination R2 to evaluate goodness of fit and the root mean squared error were 0.82 and 1.96, respectively. A U-shaped or inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and mosquito habits could directly affect the number of mosquitoes and the transmission of dengue fever. We also found that temperature increase in most future scenarios could promote the transmission of dengue fever, and the epidemic period was significantly wider than the baseline stage. The epidemic of dengue fever would peak in the 2060s under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The estimated incidence of dengue fever was predicated to be highest in the 2030s and then decrease in the following years under RCP8.5, and in the 2090s, the incidence would decrease significantly, but the incidence peak would be earlier in each year, mainly from May to July.ConclusionTemperature can directly affect mosquito population and dengue fever transmission by affecting mosquito habits. The cases of dengue fever will increase under most climate scenarios in the future. However, the epidemic risk of dengue fever may be suppressed, and the epidemic season may be advanced under RCP8.5.http://www.jeom.org/article/cn/10.11836/JEOM21457dengue feverdynamics modelclimate changetemperature |
| spellingShingle | Jianguo ZHAO Guanhao HE Jianpeng XIAO Guanghu ZHU Tao LIU Jianxiong HU Weilin ZENG Xing LI Zhoupeng REN Wenjun MA Mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and impact of future temperature change on its transmission risk 环境与职业医学 dengue fever dynamics model climate change temperature |
| title | Mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and impact of future temperature change on its transmission risk |
| title_full | Mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and impact of future temperature change on its transmission risk |
| title_fullStr | Mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and impact of future temperature change on its transmission risk |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and impact of future temperature change on its transmission risk |
| title_short | Mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and impact of future temperature change on its transmission risk |
| title_sort | mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and impact of future temperature change on its transmission risk |
| topic | dengue fever dynamics model climate change temperature |
| url | http://www.jeom.org/article/cn/10.11836/JEOM21457 |
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