An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes
In this study, the causes of the increase in global mean tropical cyclone translation speed (TCTS) in the post-satellite era were investigated. Analysis reveals that the global-mean TCTS increased by 0.31 km h ^−1 per decade over the last 36 years, but the steering flow controlling the local TCTS de...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f |
| _version_ | 1797747836721299456 |
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| author | Sung-Hun Kim Il-Ju Moon Pao-Shin Chu |
| author_facet | Sung-Hun Kim Il-Ju Moon Pao-Shin Chu |
| author_sort | Sung-Hun Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, the causes of the increase in global mean tropical cyclone translation speed (TCTS) in the post-satellite era were investigated. Analysis reveals that the global-mean TCTS increased by 0.31 km h ^−1 per decade over the last 36 years, but the steering flow controlling the local TCTS decreased by −0.24 km h ^−1 per decade in the major tropical cyclone (TC) passage regions. These values correspond to a change of 5.9% and −5.6% during the analysis period for the mean TCTS and steering flow, respectively. The inconsistency between these two related variables (TCTS and steering flows) is caused by relative TC frequency changes according to basin and latitude. The TCTS is closely related to the latitude of the TC position, which shows a significant difference in mean TCTS between basins. That is, the increased global-mean TCTS is mainly attributed to the following: (1) an increase (4.5% per decade) in the relative proportion of the North Atlantic TCs in terms of global TC’s position points (this region has the fastest mean TCTS among all basins); and (2) the poleward shift of TC activities. These two effects account for 76.8% and 25.8% of the observed global-mean TCTS trend, respectively, and thus overwhelm those of the slowing steering flow related to the weakening of large-scale tropical circulation, which leads to a global mean increase in TCTS. Given that TC activity in the North Atlantic is closely related to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and a poleward shift of TC exposure is likely induced by global warming, the recent increase in the global-mean TCTS is a joint outcome of both natural variations and anthrophonic effects. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0a1b504720ec4312833001aea481ff9a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:19Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-0a1b504720ec4312833001aea481ff9a2023-08-09T14:51:32ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115909408410.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1fAn increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causesSung-Hun Kim0Il-Ju Moon1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9370-0900Pao-Shin Chu2Typhoon Research Center, Jeju National University , 102 Jejudaehak-ro, Jeju 63243 Republic of Korea; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa , Honolulu, Hawaii, United States of AmericaTyphoon Research Center, Jeju National University , 102 Jejudaehak-ro, Jeju 63243 Republic of KoreaDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa , Honolulu, Hawaii, United States of AmericaIn this study, the causes of the increase in global mean tropical cyclone translation speed (TCTS) in the post-satellite era were investigated. Analysis reveals that the global-mean TCTS increased by 0.31 km h ^−1 per decade over the last 36 years, but the steering flow controlling the local TCTS decreased by −0.24 km h ^−1 per decade in the major tropical cyclone (TC) passage regions. These values correspond to a change of 5.9% and −5.6% during the analysis period for the mean TCTS and steering flow, respectively. The inconsistency between these two related variables (TCTS and steering flows) is caused by relative TC frequency changes according to basin and latitude. The TCTS is closely related to the latitude of the TC position, which shows a significant difference in mean TCTS between basins. That is, the increased global-mean TCTS is mainly attributed to the following: (1) an increase (4.5% per decade) in the relative proportion of the North Atlantic TCs in terms of global TC’s position points (this region has the fastest mean TCTS among all basins); and (2) the poleward shift of TC activities. These two effects account for 76.8% and 25.8% of the observed global-mean TCTS trend, respectively, and thus overwhelm those of the slowing steering flow related to the weakening of large-scale tropical circulation, which leads to a global mean increase in TCTS. Given that TC activity in the North Atlantic is closely related to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation and a poleward shift of TC exposure is likely induced by global warming, the recent increase in the global-mean TCTS is a joint outcome of both natural variations and anthrophonic effects.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1ftropical cyclone translation speedglobal warmingnatural variability |
| spellingShingle | Sung-Hun Kim Il-Ju Moon Pao-Shin Chu An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes Environmental Research Letters tropical cyclone translation speed global warming natural variability |
| title | An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
| title_full | An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
| title_fullStr | An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
| title_full_unstemmed | An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
| title_short | An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
| title_sort | increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes |
| topic | tropical cyclone translation speed global warming natural variability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e1f |
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