ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO Y SIMULACIÓN DE MONTE CARLO EN LA VALORACIÓN DE PROYECTOS¿ APLICACIÓN EN LA INDUSTRIA DE LOS HIDROCARBUROS

ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO Y SIMULACIÓN DE MONTE CARLO EN LA VALORACIÓN DE PROYECTOS¿ APLICACIÓN EN LA INDUSTRIA DE LOS HIDROCARBUROS

This paper presents a methodology to develop an efficient financial assessment through risk analysis that integrates technical and financial variables using influence diagrams and Monte Carlo Simulation, achieving not only simplify the simulation model, but also a selection appropriate variables t...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Carlos Enrique Vecino Arenas, Gustavo Maya Toro, Marialejandra Castillo Torres, Oscar Bravo Mendoza, Ruben Hernan Castro Garcia, Venus Minerva Díaz Guardia
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Universidad Industrial de Santander 2011-12-01
Series:Revista Fuentes El Reventón Energético
Subjects:
Financial Assessment
Uncertainty
Risk Analysis
Monte Carlo Simulation
Waterflooding
Online Access:https://revistas.uis.edu.co/index.php/revistafuentes/article/view/2609/2918
Description
Summary:This paper presents a methodology to develop an efficient financial assessment through risk analysis that integrates technical and financial variables using influence diagrams and Monte Carlo Simulation, achieving not only simplify the simulation model, but also a selection appropriate variables that impact the project. This methodology is exemplified through its application in the evaluation of an enhanced oil recovery project in Colombian oil field, highlighting the oil industry as a prime example of a project evaluation under uncertainty, taken in account their high investment and high number of technical and financial variables that affect it.
ISSN:1657-6527
2145-8502

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