Modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change
Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is fundamental for decarbonizing the global economy and supporting the renewable energy transitions that are needed to combat climate change. Potential solar power production at a given location is a function of climatic variables that will change over time and so clim...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf86f |
| _version_ | 1797673022806556672 |
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| author | Ankita Saxena Calum Brown Almut Arneth Mark Rounsevell |
| author_facet | Ankita Saxena Calum Brown Almut Arneth Mark Rounsevell |
| author_sort | Ankita Saxena |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is fundamental for decarbonizing the global economy and supporting the renewable energy transitions that are needed to combat climate change. Potential solar power production at a given location is a function of climatic variables that will change over time and so climate change needs to be accounted for in PV potential estimation. The future potential of PV in response to climate change has not previously been assessed consistently and globally across alternative scenarios. We develop global gridded estimates of PV potential between 2020 and 2100 as a function of spatial, climatic, technological and infrastructural conditions. We find a global technical potential of 175 111 T W h yr ^−1 in 2050, which changes by between ca. −19% (high-emission scenario) and +16% (low-emission scenario), with larger geographic variations within these scenarios. We perform a sensitivity analysis to identify key uncertainties and assess the scope for emerging PV technologies to offset negative climate impacts. We find that suboptimal orientation and temperature losses have the largest negative effects (reducing PV potential by up to ca. 50% and ca. 10% respectively), but that new technologies may be able to generate gains of more than 200% if successfully deployed worldwide. Solar power can make an important contribution to energy production over the coming decades and the demand for renewable energy could be met by PV deployment on between 0.5% and 1% of the global land area, provided its deployment accounts for the location-specific impacts of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T21:38:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0a8738d9d0a748e59cb55c77ec91a9a0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T21:38:22Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-0a8738d9d0a748e59cb55c77ec91a9a02023-09-26T13:28:55ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-01181010401710.1088/1748-9326/acf86fModelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate changeAnkita Saxena0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1600-3516Calum Brown1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9331-1008Almut Arneth2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6616-0822Mark Rounsevell3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7476-9398Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology , Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology , Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; Highlands Rewilding Limited, The Old School House , Bunloit, Drumnadrochit IV63 6XG, United KingdomInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology , Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; Institute of Geography and Geo-ecology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology , Kaiserstraße 12, Building 10.50, 76131 Karlsruhe, GermanyInstitute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology , Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; Institute of Geography and Geo-ecology, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology , Kaiserstraße 12, Building 10.50, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh , Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United KingdomSolar photovoltaic (PV) energy is fundamental for decarbonizing the global economy and supporting the renewable energy transitions that are needed to combat climate change. Potential solar power production at a given location is a function of climatic variables that will change over time and so climate change needs to be accounted for in PV potential estimation. The future potential of PV in response to climate change has not previously been assessed consistently and globally across alternative scenarios. We develop global gridded estimates of PV potential between 2020 and 2100 as a function of spatial, climatic, technological and infrastructural conditions. We find a global technical potential of 175 111 T W h yr ^−1 in 2050, which changes by between ca. −19% (high-emission scenario) and +16% (low-emission scenario), with larger geographic variations within these scenarios. We perform a sensitivity analysis to identify key uncertainties and assess the scope for emerging PV technologies to offset negative climate impacts. We find that suboptimal orientation and temperature losses have the largest negative effects (reducing PV potential by up to ca. 50% and ca. 10% respectively), but that new technologies may be able to generate gains of more than 200% if successfully deployed worldwide. Solar power can make an important contribution to energy production over the coming decades and the demand for renewable energy could be met by PV deployment on between 0.5% and 1% of the global land area, provided its deployment accounts for the location-specific impacts of climate change.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf86fPV potentialrenewablesolar panelsenergy transitionsustainableclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Ankita Saxena Calum Brown Almut Arneth Mark Rounsevell Modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change Environmental Research Letters PV potential renewable solar panels energy transition sustainable climate change |
| title | Modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change |
| title_full | Modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change |
| title_short | Modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change |
| title_sort | modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change |
| topic | PV potential renewable solar panels energy transition sustainable climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf86f |
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