On the role of rainfall deficits and cropping choices in loss of agricultural yield in Marathwada, India
Crop loss and ensuing social crises can be detrimental for the agriculture-driven economy of India. Though some studies identify country-wide increasing temperatures as the dominant factor for crop loss, the agro-climatic diversity within the country necessitates an understanding of the influence of...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab93fc |
| _version_ | 1797747432714403840 |
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| author | Mariam Zachariah Arpita Mondal Mainak Das Krishna Mirle AchutaRao Subimal Ghosh |
| author_facet | Mariam Zachariah Arpita Mondal Mainak Das Krishna Mirle AchutaRao Subimal Ghosh |
| author_sort | Mariam Zachariah |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Crop loss and ensuing social crises can be detrimental for the agriculture-driven economy of India. Though some studies identify country-wide increasing temperatures as the dominant factor for crop loss, the agro-climatic diversity within the country necessitates an understanding of the influence of climate variability on yields at regional scales. We report a complex interplay among rainfall, temperature and cropping choices, with a focus on the drought-prone Marathwada region in Maharashtra. Our analysis based on observations, as well as statistical and process-based modelling experiments, and temperature projections of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds show that for the two major cropping seasons, rainfall deficit is the primary cause of crop failure, as compared to rising temperatures. The gradual shift from drought-resilient food crops, such as sorghum and pearl-millet to water-intensive cash crops such as sugarcane in recent years, is seemingly responsible for aggravating this crisis. Our findings warrant strategies promoting drought-resilient food crops, that will be useful, not only for mitigating the immediate agrarian crisis, but also for curbing impending threats to food security in the region under future climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0aace765257941c085c91bc9c17fefbd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:30Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-0aace765257941c085c91bc9c17fefbd2023-08-09T15:08:24ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115909402910.1088/1748-9326/ab93fcOn the role of rainfall deficits and cropping choices in loss of agricultural yield in Marathwada, IndiaMariam Zachariah0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9124-5120Arpita Mondal1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7622-8306Mainak Das2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6612-4303Krishna Mirle AchutaRao3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9064-5053Subimal Ghosh4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5722-1440Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay , Mumbai, IndiaDepartment of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay , Mumbai, India; Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay , Mumbai, India; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay , Mumbai, IndiaCenter for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi , Delhi, IndiaDepartment of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay , Mumbai, India; Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay , Mumbai, IndiaCrop loss and ensuing social crises can be detrimental for the agriculture-driven economy of India. Though some studies identify country-wide increasing temperatures as the dominant factor for crop loss, the agro-climatic diversity within the country necessitates an understanding of the influence of climate variability on yields at regional scales. We report a complex interplay among rainfall, temperature and cropping choices, with a focus on the drought-prone Marathwada region in Maharashtra. Our analysis based on observations, as well as statistical and process-based modelling experiments, and temperature projections of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer worlds show that for the two major cropping seasons, rainfall deficit is the primary cause of crop failure, as compared to rising temperatures. The gradual shift from drought-resilient food crops, such as sorghum and pearl-millet to water-intensive cash crops such as sugarcane in recent years, is seemingly responsible for aggravating this crisis. Our findings warrant strategies promoting drought-resilient food crops, that will be useful, not only for mitigating the immediate agrarian crisis, but also for curbing impending threats to food security in the region under future climate change.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab93fccrop yieldmixed-effects linear regressionDSSATclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Mariam Zachariah Arpita Mondal Mainak Das Krishna Mirle AchutaRao Subimal Ghosh On the role of rainfall deficits and cropping choices in loss of agricultural yield in Marathwada, India Environmental Research Letters crop yield mixed-effects linear regression DSSAT climate change |
| title | On the role of rainfall deficits and cropping choices in loss of agricultural yield in Marathwada, India |
| title_full | On the role of rainfall deficits and cropping choices in loss of agricultural yield in Marathwada, India |
| title_fullStr | On the role of rainfall deficits and cropping choices in loss of agricultural yield in Marathwada, India |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the role of rainfall deficits and cropping choices in loss of agricultural yield in Marathwada, India |
| title_short | On the role of rainfall deficits and cropping choices in loss of agricultural yield in Marathwada, India |
| title_sort | on the role of rainfall deficits and cropping choices in loss of agricultural yield in marathwada india |
| topic | crop yield mixed-effects linear regression DSSAT climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab93fc |
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