Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.
Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local im...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2011-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3177826?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1818108205469794304 |
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| author | James E Cloern Noah Knowles Larry R Brown Daniel Cayan Michael D Dettinger Tara L Morgan David H Schoellhamer Mark T Stacey Mick van der Wegen R Wayne Wagner Alan D Jassby |
| author_facet | James E Cloern Noah Knowles Larry R Brown Daniel Cayan Michael D Dettinger Tara L Morgan David H Schoellhamer Mark T Stacey Mick van der Wegen R Wayne Wagner Alan D Jassby |
| author_sort | James E Cloern |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species.We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations.Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21(st) century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T02:11:39Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0aafbbc1fb5841f6888a0c97938f5944 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T02:11:39Z |
| publishDate | 2011-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-0aafbbc1fb5841f6888a0c97938f59442022-12-22T01:24:16ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032011-01-0169e2446510.1371/journal.pone.0024465Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.James E CloernNoah KnowlesLarry R BrownDaniel CayanMichael D DettingerTara L MorganDavid H SchoellhamerMark T StaceyMick van der WegenR Wayne WagnerAlan D JassbyAccumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species.We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations.Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21(st) century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3177826?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | James E Cloern Noah Knowles Larry R Brown Daniel Cayan Michael D Dettinger Tara L Morgan David H Schoellhamer Mark T Stacey Mick van der Wegen R Wayne Wagner Alan D Jassby Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change. PLoS ONE |
| title | Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change. |
| title_full | Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change. |
| title_fullStr | Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change. |
| title_short | Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change. |
| title_sort | projected evolution of california s san francisco bay delta river system in a century of climate change |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3177826?pdf=render |
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