Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality
Few studies have used empirical evidence of past adaptation to project temperature-related excess mortality under climate change. Here, we assess adaptation in future projections of temperature-related excess mortality by employing evidence of shifting minimum mortality temperatures (MMTs) concurren...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5dee |
| _version_ | 1827869469516496896 |
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| author | Veronika Huber Cristina Peña Ortiz David Gallego Puyol Stefan Lange Francesco Sera |
| author_facet | Veronika Huber Cristina Peña Ortiz David Gallego Puyol Stefan Lange Francesco Sera |
| author_sort | Veronika Huber |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Few studies have used empirical evidence of past adaptation to project temperature-related excess mortality under climate change. Here, we assess adaptation in future projections of temperature-related excess mortality by employing evidence of shifting minimum mortality temperatures (MMTs) concurrent with climate warming of recent decades. The study is based on daily non-external mortality and daily mean temperature time-series from 11 Spanish cities covering four decades (1978–2017). It employs distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to describe temperature-mortality associations, and multivariate mixed-effect meta-regression models to derive city- and subperiod-specific MMTs, and subsequently MMT associations with climatic indicators. We use temperature projections for one low- and one high-emission scenario (ssp126, ssp370) derived from five global climate models. Our results show that MMTs have closely tracked mean summer temperatures (MSTs) over time and space, with meta-regression models suggesting that the MMTs increased by 0.73 °C (95%CI: 0.65, 0.80) per 1 °C rise in MST over time, and by 0.84 °C (95%CI: 0.76, 0.92) per 1 °C rise in MST across cities. Future projections, which include adaptation by shifting MMTs according to observed temporal changes, result in 63.5% (95%CI: 50.0, 81.2) lower heat-related excess mortality, 63.7% (95%CI: 30.2, 166.7) higher cold-related excess mortality, and 11.2% (95%CI: −5.5, 39.5) lower total temperature-related excess mortality in the 2090s for ssp370 compared to estimates that do not account for adaptation. For ssp126, assumptions on adaptation have a comparatively small impact on excess mortality estimates. Elucidating the adaptive capacities of societies can motivate strengthened efforts to implement specific adaptation measures directed at reducing heat stress under climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0acaa98d2ecf4fae99a56fdf1af30484 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:40Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-0acaa98d2ecf4fae99a56fdf1af304842023-08-09T15:27:06ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117404407510.1088/1748-9326/ac5deeEvidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortalityVeronika Huber0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9633-2752Cristina Peña Ortiz1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5451-8521David Gallego Puyol2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2082-4125Stefan Lange3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2102-8873Francesco Sera4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8890-6848Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide , Sevilla, Spain; IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich , Munich, GermanyDepartment of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide , Sevilla, SpainDepartment of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide , Sevilla, SpainPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Public Health, Environment and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine , London, United Kingdom; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications ‘G. Parenti’, University of Florence , Florence, ItalyFew studies have used empirical evidence of past adaptation to project temperature-related excess mortality under climate change. Here, we assess adaptation in future projections of temperature-related excess mortality by employing evidence of shifting minimum mortality temperatures (MMTs) concurrent with climate warming of recent decades. The study is based on daily non-external mortality and daily mean temperature time-series from 11 Spanish cities covering four decades (1978–2017). It employs distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to describe temperature-mortality associations, and multivariate mixed-effect meta-regression models to derive city- and subperiod-specific MMTs, and subsequently MMT associations with climatic indicators. We use temperature projections for one low- and one high-emission scenario (ssp126, ssp370) derived from five global climate models. Our results show that MMTs have closely tracked mean summer temperatures (MSTs) over time and space, with meta-regression models suggesting that the MMTs increased by 0.73 °C (95%CI: 0.65, 0.80) per 1 °C rise in MST over time, and by 0.84 °C (95%CI: 0.76, 0.92) per 1 °C rise in MST across cities. Future projections, which include adaptation by shifting MMTs according to observed temporal changes, result in 63.5% (95%CI: 50.0, 81.2) lower heat-related excess mortality, 63.7% (95%CI: 30.2, 166.7) higher cold-related excess mortality, and 11.2% (95%CI: −5.5, 39.5) lower total temperature-related excess mortality in the 2090s for ssp370 compared to estimates that do not account for adaptation. For ssp126, assumptions on adaptation have a comparatively small impact on excess mortality estimates. Elucidating the adaptive capacities of societies can motivate strengthened efforts to implement specific adaptation measures directed at reducing heat stress under climate change.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5deetemperature-related excess mortalityadaptationclimate changeminimum mortality temperaturehuman healthheat stress |
| spellingShingle | Veronika Huber Cristina Peña Ortiz David Gallego Puyol Stefan Lange Francesco Sera Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality Environmental Research Letters temperature-related excess mortality adaptation climate change minimum mortality temperature human health heat stress |
| title | Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality |
| title_full | Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality |
| title_fullStr | Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality |
| title_short | Evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature-related excess mortality |
| title_sort | evidence of rapid adaptation integrated into projections of temperature related excess mortality |
| topic | temperature-related excess mortality adaptation climate change minimum mortality temperature human health heat stress |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5dee |
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