Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants
Abstract Background The SARS-CoV-2 containment strategy has been successful in mainland China prior to the emergence of Omicron. However, in the era of highly transmissible variants, whether it is possible for China to sustain a local containment policy and under what conditions China could transiti...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2022-11-01
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| Series: | BMC Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02640-6 |
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| author | Yan Wang Kaiyuan Sun Zhaomin Feng Lan Yi Yanpeng Wu Hengcong Liu Quanyi Wang Marco Ajelli Cécile Viboud Hongjie Yu |
| author_facet | Yan Wang Kaiyuan Sun Zhaomin Feng Lan Yi Yanpeng Wu Hengcong Liu Quanyi Wang Marco Ajelli Cécile Viboud Hongjie Yu |
| author_sort | Yan Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background The SARS-CoV-2 containment strategy has been successful in mainland China prior to the emergence of Omicron. However, in the era of highly transmissible variants, whether it is possible for China to sustain a local containment policy and under what conditions China could transition away from it are of paramount importance at the current stage of the pandemic. Methods We developed a spatially structured, fully stochastic, individual-based SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to evaluate the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in mainland China considering the Omicron variants, China’s current immunization level, and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We also built a statistical model to estimate the overall disease burden under various hypothetical mitigation scenarios. Results We found that due to high transmissibility, neither Omicron BA.1 nor BA.2 could be contained by China’s pre-Omicron NPI strategies which were successful prior to the emergence of the Omicron variants. However, increased intervention intensity, such as enhanced population mobility restrictions and multi-round mass testing, could lead to containment success. We estimated that an acute Omicron epidemic wave in mainland China would result in significant number of deaths if China were to reopen under current vaccine coverage with no antiviral uptake, while increasing vaccination coverage and antiviral uptake could substantially reduce the disease burden. Conclusions As China’s current vaccination has yet to reach high coverage in older populations, NPIs remain essential tools to maintain low levels of infection while building up protective population immunity, ensuring a smooth transition out of the pandemic phase while minimizing the overall disease burden. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:55:15Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0adf722c02c646b0b37998a676d0eb4a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1741-7015 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T06:55:15Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-0adf722c02c646b0b37998a676d0eb4a2022-12-22T04:39:02ZengBMCBMC Medicine1741-70152022-11-0120111610.1186/s12916-022-02640-6Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variantsYan Wang0Kaiyuan Sun1Zhaomin Feng2Lan Yi3Yanpeng Wu4Hengcong Liu5Quanyi Wang6Marco Ajelli7Cécile Viboud8Hongjie Yu9School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of EducationDivision of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of HealthBeijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC)Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan UniversityShanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan UniversitySchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of EducationBeijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC)Laboratory of Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public HealthDivision of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of HealthSchool of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of EducationAbstract Background The SARS-CoV-2 containment strategy has been successful in mainland China prior to the emergence of Omicron. However, in the era of highly transmissible variants, whether it is possible for China to sustain a local containment policy and under what conditions China could transition away from it are of paramount importance at the current stage of the pandemic. Methods We developed a spatially structured, fully stochastic, individual-based SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to evaluate the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in mainland China considering the Omicron variants, China’s current immunization level, and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We also built a statistical model to estimate the overall disease burden under various hypothetical mitigation scenarios. Results We found that due to high transmissibility, neither Omicron BA.1 nor BA.2 could be contained by China’s pre-Omicron NPI strategies which were successful prior to the emergence of the Omicron variants. However, increased intervention intensity, such as enhanced population mobility restrictions and multi-round mass testing, could lead to containment success. We estimated that an acute Omicron epidemic wave in mainland China would result in significant number of deaths if China were to reopen under current vaccine coverage with no antiviral uptake, while increasing vaccination coverage and antiviral uptake could substantially reduce the disease burden. Conclusions As China’s current vaccination has yet to reach high coverage in older populations, NPIs remain essential tools to maintain low levels of infection while building up protective population immunity, ensuring a smooth transition out of the pandemic phase while minimizing the overall disease burden.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02640-6COVID-19SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variantNonpharmaceutical interventionsContainmentMitigationVaccination |
| spellingShingle | Yan Wang Kaiyuan Sun Zhaomin Feng Lan Yi Yanpeng Wu Hengcong Liu Quanyi Wang Marco Ajelli Cécile Viboud Hongjie Yu Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants BMC Medicine COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant Nonpharmaceutical interventions Containment Mitigation Vaccination |
| title | Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants |
| title_full | Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants |
| title_short | Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants |
| title_sort | assessing the feasibility of sustaining sars cov 2 local containment in china in the era of highly transmissible variants |
| topic | COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant Nonpharmaceutical interventions Containment Mitigation Vaccination |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02640-6 |
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