Real-Time Forecasts of Typhoon Rapid Intensification in The North Western Pacific Basin with the NCEP Operational HWRF Model
ABSTRACT: This study presents the real-time performance of the United States (US) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model in predicting rapid intensification (RI) of typhoons in the North Western Pacific (WPAC) basin in 20...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2014-05-01
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| Series: | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603218301000 |
| _version_ | 1818915317395488768 |
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| author | Vijay Tallapragada Chanh Kieu |
| author_facet | Vijay Tallapragada Chanh Kieu |
| author_sort | Vijay Tallapragada |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT: This study presents the real-time performance of the United States (US) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model in predicting rapid intensification (RI) of typhoons in the North Western Pacific (WPAC) basin in 2013. Examination of all RI cases in WPAC during 2013 shows that the HWRF model captures a consistent vortex structure at the onset of all RI as seen in previous idealized studies with HWRF. However, HWRF has issues with predicting RI when the model vortex is initialized with intensity greater than hurricane strength.Further verification of the probability of detection (POD) and the false alarm rate (FAR) of RI forecasts shows that the HWRF model outperforms all other models used by the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center, possessing highest POD and lowest FAR in 2013. Examination of the intensity change forecasts at different forecast lead times also confirms that the HWRF model has superior performance, particularly at the 72-h lead time with the POD index ~0.91 and the FAR index ~0.33. Such unique performance of the HWRF model demonstrates its role in helping operational agencies improve their official intensity (and RI) forecasts for tropical cyclones in the WPAC basin. Keywords: rapid intensification, typhoons/tropical cyclones, operational forecasting |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T00:00:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0aef6e423b934387a31534cf7726b29e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2225-6032 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T00:00:21Z |
| publishDate | 2014-05-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| spelling | doaj.art-0aef6e423b934387a31534cf7726b29e2022-12-21T20:00:51ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Tropical Cyclone Research and Review2225-60322014-05-01326377Real-Time Forecasts of Typhoon Rapid Intensification in The North Western Pacific Basin with the NCEP Operational HWRF ModelVijay Tallapragada0Chanh Kieu1Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, Maryland, U.S.A.; Corresponding author address: Dr. Vijay Tallapragada, Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, Maryland 20740, U.S.A. 301-683-3672.Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, Maryland, U.S.A.; I.M. Systems Group, Rockville, Maryland, U.S.A.ABSTRACT: This study presents the real-time performance of the United States (US) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model in predicting rapid intensification (RI) of typhoons in the North Western Pacific (WPAC) basin in 2013. Examination of all RI cases in WPAC during 2013 shows that the HWRF model captures a consistent vortex structure at the onset of all RI as seen in previous idealized studies with HWRF. However, HWRF has issues with predicting RI when the model vortex is initialized with intensity greater than hurricane strength.Further verification of the probability of detection (POD) and the false alarm rate (FAR) of RI forecasts shows that the HWRF model outperforms all other models used by the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center, possessing highest POD and lowest FAR in 2013. Examination of the intensity change forecasts at different forecast lead times also confirms that the HWRF model has superior performance, particularly at the 72-h lead time with the POD index ~0.91 and the FAR index ~0.33. Such unique performance of the HWRF model demonstrates its role in helping operational agencies improve their official intensity (and RI) forecasts for tropical cyclones in the WPAC basin. Keywords: rapid intensification, typhoons/tropical cyclones, operational forecastinghttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603218301000 |
| spellingShingle | Vijay Tallapragada Chanh Kieu Real-Time Forecasts of Typhoon Rapid Intensification in The North Western Pacific Basin with the NCEP Operational HWRF Model Tropical Cyclone Research and Review |
| title | Real-Time Forecasts of Typhoon Rapid Intensification in The North Western Pacific Basin with the NCEP Operational HWRF Model |
| title_full | Real-Time Forecasts of Typhoon Rapid Intensification in The North Western Pacific Basin with the NCEP Operational HWRF Model |
| title_fullStr | Real-Time Forecasts of Typhoon Rapid Intensification in The North Western Pacific Basin with the NCEP Operational HWRF Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Real-Time Forecasts of Typhoon Rapid Intensification in The North Western Pacific Basin with the NCEP Operational HWRF Model |
| title_short | Real-Time Forecasts of Typhoon Rapid Intensification in The North Western Pacific Basin with the NCEP Operational HWRF Model |
| title_sort | real time forecasts of typhoon rapid intensification in the north western pacific basin with the ncep operational hwrf model |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603218301000 |
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