Development and validation of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model for Chinese males (CVDMCM)
BackgroundDeath due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) increased significantly in China. One possible way to reduce CVD is to identify people at risk and provide targeted intervention. We aim to develop and validate a CVD risk prediction model for Chinese males (CVDMCM) to help clinicians identify tho...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-11-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.967097/full |
| _version_ | 1811307549615456256 |
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| author | Ying Shan Ying Shan Yucong Zhang Yanping Zhao Yueqi Lu Bangwei Chen Bangwei Chen Liuqiao Yang Liuqiao Yang Cong Tan Yong Bai Yu Sang Juehan Liu Min Jian Lei Ruan Cuntai Zhang Tao Li |
| author_facet | Ying Shan Ying Shan Yucong Zhang Yanping Zhao Yueqi Lu Bangwei Chen Bangwei Chen Liuqiao Yang Liuqiao Yang Cong Tan Yong Bai Yu Sang Juehan Liu Min Jian Lei Ruan Cuntai Zhang Tao Li |
| author_sort | Ying Shan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundDeath due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) increased significantly in China. One possible way to reduce CVD is to identify people at risk and provide targeted intervention. We aim to develop and validate a CVD risk prediction model for Chinese males (CVDMCM) to help clinicians identify those males at risk of CVD and provide targeted intervention.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of 2,331 Chinese males without CVD at baseline to develop and internally validate the CVDMCM. These participants had a baseline physical examination record (2008–2016) and at least one revisit record by September 2019. With the full cohort, we conducted three models: A model with Framingham CVD risk model predictors; a model with predictors selected by univariate cox proportional hazard model adjusted for age; and a model with predictors selected by LASSO algorithm. Among them, the optimal model, CVDMCM, was obtained based on the Akaike information criterion, the Brier's score, and Harrell's C statistic. Then, CVDMCM, the Framingham CVD risk model, and the Wu's simplified model were all validated and compared. All the validation was carried out by bootstrap resampling strategy (TRIPOD statement type 1b) with the full cohort with 1,000 repetitions.ResultsCVDMCM's Harrell's C statistic was 0.769 (95% CI: 0.738–0.799), and D statistic was 4.738 (95% CI: 3.270–6.864). The results of Harrell's C statistic, D statistic and calibration plot demonstrated that CVDMCM outperformed the Framingham CVD model and Wu's simplified model for 4-year CVD risk prediction.ConclusionsWe developed and internally validated CVDMCM, which predicted 4-year CVD risk for Chinese males with a better performance than Framingham CVD model and Wu's simplified model. In addition, we developed a web calculator–calCVDrisk for physicians to conveniently generate CVD risk scores and identify those males with a higher risk of CVD. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:06:17Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0b1eb6f2dc3e4dc4a765a537da5d1f75 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2297-055X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:06:17Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-0b1eb6f2dc3e4dc4a765a537da5d1f752022-12-22T02:52:58ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine2297-055X2022-11-01910.3389/fcvm.2022.967097967097Development and validation of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model for Chinese males (CVDMCM)Ying Shan0Ying Shan1Yucong Zhang2Yanping Zhao3Yueqi Lu4Bangwei Chen5Bangwei Chen6Liuqiao Yang7Liuqiao Yang8Cong Tan9Yong Bai10Yu Sang11Juehan Liu12Min Jian13Lei Ruan14Cuntai Zhang15Tao Li16BGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, ChinaPeking University Shenzhen Hospital, Clinical Research Academy, Shenzhen, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Tongji Medical College, Tongji Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaBGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, ChinaBGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, ChinaBGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, ChinaSchool of Biology and Biological Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, ChinaBGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, ChinaCollege of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaBGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, ChinaBGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Tongji Medical College, Tongji Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaBGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, ChinaBGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Tongji Medical College, Tongji Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Geriatrics, Tongji Medical College, Tongji Hospital, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaBGI-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, ChinaBackgroundDeath due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) increased significantly in China. One possible way to reduce CVD is to identify people at risk and provide targeted intervention. We aim to develop and validate a CVD risk prediction model for Chinese males (CVDMCM) to help clinicians identify those males at risk of CVD and provide targeted intervention.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of 2,331 Chinese males without CVD at baseline to develop and internally validate the CVDMCM. These participants had a baseline physical examination record (2008–2016) and at least one revisit record by September 2019. With the full cohort, we conducted three models: A model with Framingham CVD risk model predictors; a model with predictors selected by univariate cox proportional hazard model adjusted for age; and a model with predictors selected by LASSO algorithm. Among them, the optimal model, CVDMCM, was obtained based on the Akaike information criterion, the Brier's score, and Harrell's C statistic. Then, CVDMCM, the Framingham CVD risk model, and the Wu's simplified model were all validated and compared. All the validation was carried out by bootstrap resampling strategy (TRIPOD statement type 1b) with the full cohort with 1,000 repetitions.ResultsCVDMCM's Harrell's C statistic was 0.769 (95% CI: 0.738–0.799), and D statistic was 4.738 (95% CI: 3.270–6.864). The results of Harrell's C statistic, D statistic and calibration plot demonstrated that CVDMCM outperformed the Framingham CVD model and Wu's simplified model for 4-year CVD risk prediction.ConclusionsWe developed and internally validated CVDMCM, which predicted 4-year CVD risk for Chinese males with a better performance than Framingham CVD model and Wu's simplified model. In addition, we developed a web calculator–calCVDrisk for physicians to conveniently generate CVD risk scores and identify those males with a higher risk of CVD.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.967097/fullcardiovascular diseasesprediction modelChinese malesretrospective cohort studychronic disease prevention |
| spellingShingle | Ying Shan Ying Shan Yucong Zhang Yanping Zhao Yueqi Lu Bangwei Chen Bangwei Chen Liuqiao Yang Liuqiao Yang Cong Tan Yong Bai Yu Sang Juehan Liu Min Jian Lei Ruan Cuntai Zhang Tao Li Development and validation of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model for Chinese males (CVDMCM) Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine cardiovascular diseases prediction model Chinese males retrospective cohort study chronic disease prevention |
| title | Development and validation of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model for Chinese males (CVDMCM) |
| title_full | Development and validation of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model for Chinese males (CVDMCM) |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model for Chinese males (CVDMCM) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model for Chinese males (CVDMCM) |
| title_short | Development and validation of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model for Chinese males (CVDMCM) |
| title_sort | development and validation of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model for chinese males cvdmcm |
| topic | cardiovascular diseases prediction model Chinese males retrospective cohort study chronic disease prevention |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.967097/full |
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