Drought risk assessment in China: Evaluation framework and influencing factors
Global warming and rapid economic development have led to increased levels of disaster risk in China. Previous attempts at assessing drought risk were highly subjective in terms of assessment methods and selection of the assessment indicators and which resulted in appreciable uncertainty in the resu...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Geography and Sustainability |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683920300286 |
| _version_ | 1819074762365730816 |
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| author | Jiaqi Zhao Qiang Zhang Xiudi Zhu Zexi Shen Huiqian Yu |
| author_facet | Jiaqi Zhao Qiang Zhang Xiudi Zhu Zexi Shen Huiqian Yu |
| author_sort | Jiaqi Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global warming and rapid economic development have led to increased levels of disaster risk in China. Previous attempts at assessing drought risk were highly subjective in terms of assessment methods and selection of the assessment indicators and which resulted in appreciable uncertainty in the results of these risk assessments. Based on the assumption that areas with historically high drought losses are more likely to suffer future high drought losses, we develop a new drought risk assessment model that includes historical drought loss data. With this model, we map the regional differentiation of Chinese drought risk. Regions with high (extreme high) drought risk account for 4.3% of China's area. Five significant high-risk areas have been identified: Northeast China, North China, the east part of Northwest China, the east part of Southwest China and a small part in the west of Northwest China. Areas with high and extreme high drought risk are dominant in the Heilongjiang Province, accounting for 32% of the total area, followed by the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, with 26% of total area. The contribution of each influencing factor has been quantified, which indicates that high-exposure and high-vulnerability account for the high-risk of drought. We recommend that measures like strengthening the protection of cultivated land and reducing dependence on the primary industry should be taken to mitigate to drought-induced losses. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T18:14:40Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0b33ce33aa74452b97cf0bbc1d3058c7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-6839 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T18:14:40Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geography and Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj.art-0b33ce33aa74452b97cf0bbc1d3058c72022-12-21T18:54:42ZengElsevierGeography and Sustainability2666-68392020-09-0113220228Drought risk assessment in China: Evaluation framework and influencing factorsJiaqi Zhao0Qiang Zhang1Xiudi Zhu2Zexi Shen3Huiqian Yu4Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Corresponding author.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaGlobal warming and rapid economic development have led to increased levels of disaster risk in China. Previous attempts at assessing drought risk were highly subjective in terms of assessment methods and selection of the assessment indicators and which resulted in appreciable uncertainty in the results of these risk assessments. Based on the assumption that areas with historically high drought losses are more likely to suffer future high drought losses, we develop a new drought risk assessment model that includes historical drought loss data. With this model, we map the regional differentiation of Chinese drought risk. Regions with high (extreme high) drought risk account for 4.3% of China's area. Five significant high-risk areas have been identified: Northeast China, North China, the east part of Northwest China, the east part of Southwest China and a small part in the west of Northwest China. Areas with high and extreme high drought risk are dominant in the Heilongjiang Province, accounting for 32% of the total area, followed by the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, with 26% of total area. The contribution of each influencing factor has been quantified, which indicates that high-exposure and high-vulnerability account for the high-risk of drought. We recommend that measures like strengthening the protection of cultivated land and reducing dependence on the primary industry should be taken to mitigate to drought-induced losses.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683920300286Drought risksDrought risk evaluation frameworkDrought hazardDrought exposureDrought vulnerability |
| spellingShingle | Jiaqi Zhao Qiang Zhang Xiudi Zhu Zexi Shen Huiqian Yu Drought risk assessment in China: Evaluation framework and influencing factors Geography and Sustainability Drought risks Drought risk evaluation framework Drought hazard Drought exposure Drought vulnerability |
| title | Drought risk assessment in China: Evaluation framework and influencing factors |
| title_full | Drought risk assessment in China: Evaluation framework and influencing factors |
| title_fullStr | Drought risk assessment in China: Evaluation framework and influencing factors |
| title_full_unstemmed | Drought risk assessment in China: Evaluation framework and influencing factors |
| title_short | Drought risk assessment in China: Evaluation framework and influencing factors |
| title_sort | drought risk assessment in china evaluation framework and influencing factors |
| topic | Drought risks Drought risk evaluation framework Drought hazard Drought exposure Drought vulnerability |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683920300286 |
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