Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US
Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked project...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2016-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124018 |
| _version_ | 1797748603042660352 |
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| author | Jia Coco Liu Loretta J Mickley Melissa P Sulprizio Xu Yue Roger D Peng Francesca Dominici Michelle L Bell |
| author_facet | Jia Coco Liu Loretta J Mickley Melissa P Sulprizio Xu Yue Roger D Peng Francesca Dominici Michelle L Bell |
| author_sort | Jia Coco Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) specifically from wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046–2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county ( n = 561) from wildfire PM _2.5 under climate change in the Western US. Results . The increase in intense wildfire smoke days from climate change would result in an estimated 178 (95% confidence interval: 6.2, 361) additional respiratory hospital admissions in the Western US, accounting for estimated future increase in the elderly population. Climate change is estimated to impose an additional 4990 high-pollution smoke days. Central Colorado, Washington and southern California are estimated to experience the highest percentage increase in respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change. Conclusion. Although the increase in number of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke seems modest, these results provide important scientific evidence of an often-ignored aspect of wildfire impact, and information on their anticipated spatial distribution. Wildfires can cause serious social burdens such as property damage and suppression cost, but can also raise health problems. The results provide information that can be incorporated into development of environmental and health policies in response to climate change. Climate change adaptation policies could incorporate scientific evidence on health risks from natural disasters such as wildfires. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:08:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0b7c80fe0fe84ed28cd7f7a10bab8e5a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:08:09Z |
| publishDate | 2016-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-0b7c80fe0fe84ed28cd7f7a10bab8e5a2023-08-09T14:15:23ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262016-01-01111212401810.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124018Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western USJia Coco Liu0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2433-3793Loretta J Mickley1Melissa P Sulprizio2Xu Yue3Roger D Peng4Francesca Dominici5Michelle L Bell6School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USASchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USASchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USASchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA; Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USADepartment of Biostatistics, T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USASchool of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USABackground. Wildfires are anticipated to be more frequent and intense under climate change. As a result, wildfires may emit more air pollutants that can harm health in communities in the future. The health impacts of wildfire smoke under climate change are largely unknown. Methods. We linked projections of future levels of fine particulate matter (PM _2.5 ) specifically from wildfire smoke under the A1B climate change scenario using the GEOS-Chem model for 2046–2051, present-day estimates of hospital admission impacts from wildfire smoke, and future population projections to estimate the change in respiratory hospital admissions for persons ≥65 years by county ( n = 561) from wildfire PM _2.5 under climate change in the Western US. Results . The increase in intense wildfire smoke days from climate change would result in an estimated 178 (95% confidence interval: 6.2, 361) additional respiratory hospital admissions in the Western US, accounting for estimated future increase in the elderly population. Climate change is estimated to impose an additional 4990 high-pollution smoke days. Central Colorado, Washington and southern California are estimated to experience the highest percentage increase in respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change. Conclusion. Although the increase in number of respiratory admissions from wildfire smoke seems modest, these results provide important scientific evidence of an often-ignored aspect of wildfire impact, and information on their anticipated spatial distribution. Wildfires can cause serious social burdens such as property damage and suppression cost, but can also raise health problems. The results provide information that can be incorporated into development of environmental and health policies in response to climate change. Climate change adaptation policies could incorporate scientific evidence on health risks from natural disasters such as wildfires.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124018wildfiresair pollutionclimate changerespiratory health |
| spellingShingle | Jia Coco Liu Loretta J Mickley Melissa P Sulprizio Xu Yue Roger D Peng Francesca Dominici Michelle L Bell Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US Environmental Research Letters wildfires air pollution climate change respiratory health |
| title | Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US |
| title_full | Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US |
| title_fullStr | Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US |
| title_short | Future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the Western US |
| title_sort | future respiratory hospital admissions from wildfire smoke under climate change in the western us |
| topic | wildfires air pollution climate change respiratory health |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124018 |
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