Enhancing Capacity for Short-Term Climate Change Adaptations in Agriculture in Serbia: Development of Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System
The Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System (IAPS) was a two-year project for the development of the long term forecast (LRF) for agricultural producers. Using LRF in decision-making, to reduce the risks and seize the opportunities, represents short-term adaptation to climate change. High-re...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/8/1337 |
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| author | Ana Vuković Vimić Vladimir Djurdjević Zorica Ranković-Vasić Dragan Nikolić Marija Ćosić Aleksa Lipovac Bojan Cvetković Dunja Sotonica Dijana Vojvodić Mirjam Vujadinović Mandić |
| author_facet | Ana Vuković Vimić Vladimir Djurdjević Zorica Ranković-Vasić Dragan Nikolić Marija Ćosić Aleksa Lipovac Bojan Cvetković Dunja Sotonica Dijana Vojvodić Mirjam Vujadinović Mandić |
| author_sort | Ana Vuković Vimić |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System (IAPS) was a two-year project for the development of the long term forecast (LRF) for agricultural producers. Using LRF in decision-making, to reduce the risks and seize the opportunities, represents short-term adaptation to climate change. High-resolution ensemble forecasts (51 forecasts) were made for a period of 7 months and were initiated on the first day of each month. For the initial testing of the capacity of LRF to provide useful information for producers, 2017 was chosen as the test year as it had a very hot summer and severe drought, which caused significant impacts on agricultural production. LRF was very useful in predicting the variables which bear the memory of the longer period, such are growing degree days for the prediction of dates of the phenophases’ occurrences and the soil moisture of deeper soil layers as an indicator for the drought. Other project activities included field observations, communication with producers, web portal development, etc. Our results showed that the selected priority forecasting products were also identified by the producers as being the highest weather-related risks, the operational forecast implementation with the products designed for the use in agricultural production is proven to be urgent and necessary for decision-making, and required investments are affordable. The total cost of the full upgrade of agrometeorological climate services to meet current needs (including monitoring, seamless forecasting system development and the development of tools for information dissemination) was found to be about three orders of magnitude lower than the assessed losses in agricultural production in the two extreme years over the past decade. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T11:54:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0be02fdff4e040c4b49b6549006e0ef9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T11:54:07Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-0be02fdff4e040c4b49b6549006e0ef92023-11-30T23:10:57ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332022-08-01138133710.3390/atmos13081337Enhancing Capacity for Short-Term Climate Change Adaptations in Agriculture in Serbia: Development of Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction SystemAna Vuković Vimić0Vladimir Djurdjević1Zorica Ranković-Vasić2Dragan Nikolić3Marija Ćosić4Aleksa Lipovac5Bojan Cvetković6Dunja Sotonica7Dijana Vojvodić8Mirjam Vujadinović Mandić9Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Physics, University of Belgrade, Dobračina 16, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080 Belgrade, SerbiaRepublic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, Kneza Višeslava 66, 11000 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080 Belgrade, SerbiaFaculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6, 11080 Belgrade, SerbiaThe Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System (IAPS) was a two-year project for the development of the long term forecast (LRF) for agricultural producers. Using LRF in decision-making, to reduce the risks and seize the opportunities, represents short-term adaptation to climate change. High-resolution ensemble forecasts (51 forecasts) were made for a period of 7 months and were initiated on the first day of each month. For the initial testing of the capacity of LRF to provide useful information for producers, 2017 was chosen as the test year as it had a very hot summer and severe drought, which caused significant impacts on agricultural production. LRF was very useful in predicting the variables which bear the memory of the longer period, such are growing degree days for the prediction of dates of the phenophases’ occurrences and the soil moisture of deeper soil layers as an indicator for the drought. Other project activities included field observations, communication with producers, web portal development, etc. Our results showed that the selected priority forecasting products were also identified by the producers as being the highest weather-related risks, the operational forecast implementation with the products designed for the use in agricultural production is proven to be urgent and necessary for decision-making, and required investments are affordable. The total cost of the full upgrade of agrometeorological climate services to meet current needs (including monitoring, seamless forecasting system development and the development of tools for information dissemination) was found to be about three orders of magnitude lower than the assessed losses in agricultural production in the two extreme years over the past decade.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/8/1337long range forecastagrometeorologyclimate serviceclimate change adaptation |
| spellingShingle | Ana Vuković Vimić Vladimir Djurdjević Zorica Ranković-Vasić Dragan Nikolić Marija Ćosić Aleksa Lipovac Bojan Cvetković Dunja Sotonica Dijana Vojvodić Mirjam Vujadinović Mandić Enhancing Capacity for Short-Term Climate Change Adaptations in Agriculture in Serbia: Development of Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System Atmosphere long range forecast agrometeorology climate service climate change adaptation |
| title | Enhancing Capacity for Short-Term Climate Change Adaptations in Agriculture in Serbia: Development of Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System |
| title_full | Enhancing Capacity for Short-Term Climate Change Adaptations in Agriculture in Serbia: Development of Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System |
| title_fullStr | Enhancing Capacity for Short-Term Climate Change Adaptations in Agriculture in Serbia: Development of Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System |
| title_full_unstemmed | Enhancing Capacity for Short-Term Climate Change Adaptations in Agriculture in Serbia: Development of Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System |
| title_short | Enhancing Capacity for Short-Term Climate Change Adaptations in Agriculture in Serbia: Development of Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System |
| title_sort | enhancing capacity for short term climate change adaptations in agriculture in serbia development of integrated agrometeorological prediction system |
| topic | long range forecast agrometeorology climate service climate change adaptation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/8/1337 |
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