The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting
The article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequat...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Institute for International Cooperation Development
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Virtual Economics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.virtual-economics.eu/index.php/VE/article/view/181/102 |
| _version_ | 1797683245341474816 |
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| author | Oleksandr Melnychenko Valerii Matskul Tetiana Osadcha |
| author_facet | Oleksandr Melnychenko Valerii Matskul Tetiana Osadcha |
| author_sort | Oleksandr Melnychenko |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) ARIMAS (or SARIMA) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with a dampened trend. Forecasting of exports, imports and trade balance for the fourth quarter of 2021 and first quarter of 2022 were completed. The forecast results showed a small relative error compared to the actual data. Thus, when forecasting the trade balance between countries using the Holt-Winters model, the relative prediction errors were: for October 2021 – 1.3%; for November 2021 – 2.6%; for December 2021 – 0.4%. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T00:11:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0c03825c11414dbe9f6120a9d545bf5a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2657-4047 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T00:11:45Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Institute for International Cooperation Development |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Virtual Economics |
| spelling | doaj.art-0c03825c11414dbe9f6120a9d545bf5a2023-09-15T22:01:54ZengInstitute for International Cooperation DevelopmentVirtual Economics2657-40472022-07-015272310.34021/ve.2022.05.02(1)The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and ForecastingOleksandr Melnychenko0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7707-7888Valerii Matskul1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3897-5500Tetiana Osadcha2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4258-0907Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, PolandOdesa National Economic University, Odesa, UkraineOdesa Mechnikov National University, Odesa, UkraineThe article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance of trade between Ukraine and Romania in the period from 2005 to 2021. Time series from 2015 to 2021 were used for modelling and forecasting (since the date the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models of the dynamics series of the Box-Jenkins methodology were built: additive models with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) ARIMAS (or SARIMA) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with a dampened trend. Forecasting of exports, imports and trade balance for the fourth quarter of 2021 and first quarter of 2022 were completed. The forecast results showed a small relative error compared to the actual data. Thus, when forecasting the trade balance between countries using the Holt-Winters model, the relative prediction errors were: for October 2021 – 1.3%; for November 2021 – 2.6%; for December 2021 – 0.4%.https://www.virtual-economics.eu/index.php/VE/article/view/181/102exportimporttrade balancearima*arimasholt-winters modelsforecasting |
| spellingShingle | Oleksandr Melnychenko Valerii Matskul Tetiana Osadcha The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting Virtual Economics export import trade balance arima*arimas holt-winters models forecasting |
| title | The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting |
| title_full | The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting |
| title_fullStr | The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting |
| title_short | The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting |
| title_sort | dynamics of trade relations between ukraine and romania modelling and forecasting |
| topic | export import trade balance arima*arimas holt-winters models forecasting |
| url | https://www.virtual-economics.eu/index.php/VE/article/view/181/102 |
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