Nonlinear time series analysis of coastal temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the eastern South Pacific
<p>We carry out a nonlinear time series analysis motivated by dynamical systems theory to investigate the links between temperatures on the eastern South Pacific coast, influenced by the Humboldt Current System, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. To this aim, we use a set of 16 oc...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1125/2023/esd-14-1125-2023.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797632385104216064 |
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| author | B. Rojo-Garibaldi M. Contreras-López S. Giannerini D. A. Salas-de-León V. Vázquez-Guerra J. H. E. Cartwright J. H. E. Cartwright |
| author_facet | B. Rojo-Garibaldi M. Contreras-López S. Giannerini D. A. Salas-de-León V. Vázquez-Guerra J. H. E. Cartwright J. H. E. Cartwright |
| author_sort | B. Rojo-Garibaldi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>We carry out a nonlinear time series analysis motivated by dynamical systems theory to investigate the links between temperatures on the eastern South Pacific coast, influenced by the Humboldt Current System, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. To this aim, we use a set of 16 oceanic and atmospheric temperature time series from Chilean coastal stations distributed between 18 and 45<span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span> S. The spectral analysis indicates periodicities that can be related to both internal and external forcing, involving not only ENSO, but also the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Southern Annual Mode, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the lunar nodal cycle. The asymptotic neural network test for chaos based on the largest global Lyapunov exponent indicates that the temperature dynamics along the Chilean coast is not chaotic. We use local Lyapunov exponents to characterize the short-term stability of the series. Using a cross-entropy test, we find that two stations in northern Chile, one oceanic (Iquique) and one atmospheric (Arica), present a significant positive cross-dependence between local Lyapunov exponents and ENSO. Iquique is the station that presents the greater number of regional characteristics and correlates with ENSO differently from the rest. The unique large-scale study area, combined with time series from hitherto unused sources (Chilean naval records), reveals the nonlinear dynamics of climate variability in Chile.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T11:37:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0c051a1fff48427b8ee5b57ead80d9d5 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T11:37:16Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-0c051a1fff48427b8ee5b57ead80d9d52023-11-10T12:41:23ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872023-11-01141125116410.5194/esd-14-1125-2023Nonlinear time series analysis of coastal temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the eastern South PacificB. Rojo-Garibaldi0M. Contreras-López1S. Giannerini2D. A. Salas-de-León3V. Vázquez-Guerra4J. H. E. Cartwright5J. H. E. Cartwright6Instituto de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Av. Universidad s/n, Col. Chamilpa, Cuernavaca, Morelos, 62210, MexicoFacultad de Ingeniería y Centro de Estudios Avanzados, Universidad de Playa Ancha, Playa Ancha 850, Valparaíso, ChileDipartimento di Scienze Statistiche “Paolo Fortunati”, Università di Bologna, Via delle Belle Arti 41, Bologna, 40126, ItalyInstituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Av. Universidad 3000, Col. Copilco, México, 04510, MexicoPosgrado de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Av. Universidad 3000, Col. Copilco, México, 04510, MexicoInstituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra, CSIC–Universidad de Granada,Armilla, Granada, 18100, SpainInstituto Carlos I de Física Teórica y Computacional, Universidad de Granada, Armilla, 18071, Spain<p>We carry out a nonlinear time series analysis motivated by dynamical systems theory to investigate the links between temperatures on the eastern South Pacific coast, influenced by the Humboldt Current System, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. To this aim, we use a set of 16 oceanic and atmospheric temperature time series from Chilean coastal stations distributed between 18 and 45<span class="inline-formula"><sup>∘</sup></span> S. The spectral analysis indicates periodicities that can be related to both internal and external forcing, involving not only ENSO, but also the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Southern Annual Mode, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the lunar nodal cycle. The asymptotic neural network test for chaos based on the largest global Lyapunov exponent indicates that the temperature dynamics along the Chilean coast is not chaotic. We use local Lyapunov exponents to characterize the short-term stability of the series. Using a cross-entropy test, we find that two stations in northern Chile, one oceanic (Iquique) and one atmospheric (Arica), present a significant positive cross-dependence between local Lyapunov exponents and ENSO. Iquique is the station that presents the greater number of regional characteristics and correlates with ENSO differently from the rest. The unique large-scale study area, combined with time series from hitherto unused sources (Chilean naval records), reveals the nonlinear dynamics of climate variability in Chile.</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1125/2023/esd-14-1125-2023.pdf |
| spellingShingle | B. Rojo-Garibaldi M. Contreras-López S. Giannerini D. A. Salas-de-León V. Vázquez-Guerra J. H. E. Cartwright J. H. E. Cartwright Nonlinear time series analysis of coastal temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the eastern South Pacific Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Nonlinear time series analysis of coastal temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the eastern South Pacific |
| title_full | Nonlinear time series analysis of coastal temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the eastern South Pacific |
| title_fullStr | Nonlinear time series analysis of coastal temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the eastern South Pacific |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nonlinear time series analysis of coastal temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the eastern South Pacific |
| title_short | Nonlinear time series analysis of coastal temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events in the eastern South Pacific |
| title_sort | nonlinear time series analysis of coastal temperatures and el nino southern oscillation events in the eastern south pacific |
| url | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1125/2023/esd-14-1125-2023.pdf |
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