National COVID-19 lockdown and trends in help-seeking for violence against children in Zimbabwe: an interrupted time-series analysis
Abstract Background An estimated 1.8 billion children live in countries where COVID-19 disrupted violence prevention and response. It is important to understand how government policies to contain COVID-19 impacted children’s ability to seek help, especially in contexts where there was limited formal...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2022-11-01
|
| Series: | BMC Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14425-w |
| _version_ | 1828286748835184640 |
|---|---|
| author | Ilan Cerna-Turoff Robert Nyakuwa Ellen Turner Charles Muchemwa Nherera Tendai Nhenga-Chakarisa Karen Devries |
| author_facet | Ilan Cerna-Turoff Robert Nyakuwa Ellen Turner Charles Muchemwa Nherera Tendai Nhenga-Chakarisa Karen Devries |
| author_sort | Ilan Cerna-Turoff |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background An estimated 1.8 billion children live in countries where COVID-19 disrupted violence prevention and response. It is important to understand how government policies to contain COVID-19 impacted children’s ability to seek help, especially in contexts where there was limited formal help-seeking prior to the pandemic. We aimed to quantify how the national lockdown in Zimbabwe affected helpline calls for violence against children, estimated the number of calls that would have been received had the lockdown not occurred and described characteristics of types of calls and callers before and after the national lockdown. Methods We used an interrupted time series design to analyse the proportion of violence related calls (17,913 calls out of 57,050) to Childline Zimbabwe’s national child helpline between 2017 to 2021. We applied autoregressive integrated moving average regression (ARIMA) models to test possible changes in call trends before and after the March 2020 lockdown and forecasted how many calls would have been received in the absence of lockdown. In addition, we examined call characteristics before and after lockdown descriptively. Results The proportion of violence related calls decreased in the 90 days after the lockdown and subsequently returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. We estimate that 10.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.0–14.6%) more violence related calls would have occurred in this period had there not been a lockdown. Violence was increasingly reported as occurring in children’s households, with fewer reports from children and formal child protection actors. Conclusions Lockdowns dramatically change everyday life and strain populations, which is unlikely to reduce violence prevalence but may reduce help-seeking. The three months after COVID-19 lockdowns may be key time periods when help-seeking for violence decreases drastically. Policy makers should ensure that in-person and remote services support help-seeking. Interventions and campaigns may additionally want to target adult female family members in encouraging reporting of suspected violence cases when they occur within households and are perpetuated by other family members. We suggest a composite approach of scaling-up remote reporting mechanisms that are accessible and geographically well-distributed, establishing non-traditional sites for help seeking within communities and continuing limited in-person home visitation for known cases of violence. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:37:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0c053a69147441bf952a14f3096663a0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2458 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T09:37:21Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Public Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-0c053a69147441bf952a14f3096663a02022-12-22T02:52:02ZengBMCBMC Public Health1471-24582022-11-0122111110.1186/s12889-022-14425-wNational COVID-19 lockdown and trends in help-seeking for violence against children in Zimbabwe: an interrupted time-series analysisIlan Cerna-Turoff0Robert Nyakuwa1Ellen Turner2Charles Muchemwa Nherera3Tendai Nhenga-Chakarisa4Karen Devries5Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia UniversityQ PartnershipDepartment of Global Health and Development, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineDepartment of Art Design and Technology Education, University of ZimbabweChild Rights Research Centre, Africa UniversityDepartment of Global Health and Development, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineAbstract Background An estimated 1.8 billion children live in countries where COVID-19 disrupted violence prevention and response. It is important to understand how government policies to contain COVID-19 impacted children’s ability to seek help, especially in contexts where there was limited formal help-seeking prior to the pandemic. We aimed to quantify how the national lockdown in Zimbabwe affected helpline calls for violence against children, estimated the number of calls that would have been received had the lockdown not occurred and described characteristics of types of calls and callers before and after the national lockdown. Methods We used an interrupted time series design to analyse the proportion of violence related calls (17,913 calls out of 57,050) to Childline Zimbabwe’s national child helpline between 2017 to 2021. We applied autoregressive integrated moving average regression (ARIMA) models to test possible changes in call trends before and after the March 2020 lockdown and forecasted how many calls would have been received in the absence of lockdown. In addition, we examined call characteristics before and after lockdown descriptively. Results The proportion of violence related calls decreased in the 90 days after the lockdown and subsequently returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. We estimate that 10.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.0–14.6%) more violence related calls would have occurred in this period had there not been a lockdown. Violence was increasingly reported as occurring in children’s households, with fewer reports from children and formal child protection actors. Conclusions Lockdowns dramatically change everyday life and strain populations, which is unlikely to reduce violence prevalence but may reduce help-seeking. The three months after COVID-19 lockdowns may be key time periods when help-seeking for violence decreases drastically. Policy makers should ensure that in-person and remote services support help-seeking. Interventions and campaigns may additionally want to target adult female family members in encouraging reporting of suspected violence cases when they occur within households and are perpetuated by other family members. We suggest a composite approach of scaling-up remote reporting mechanisms that are accessible and geographically well-distributed, establishing non-traditional sites for help seeking within communities and continuing limited in-person home visitation for known cases of violence.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14425-wViolenceHelp-seekingChildrenCOVID-19 lockdownInterrupted time seriesAutoregressive integrated moving average regression |
| spellingShingle | Ilan Cerna-Turoff Robert Nyakuwa Ellen Turner Charles Muchemwa Nherera Tendai Nhenga-Chakarisa Karen Devries National COVID-19 lockdown and trends in help-seeking for violence against children in Zimbabwe: an interrupted time-series analysis BMC Public Health Violence Help-seeking Children COVID-19 lockdown Interrupted time series Autoregressive integrated moving average regression |
| title | National COVID-19 lockdown and trends in help-seeking for violence against children in Zimbabwe: an interrupted time-series analysis |
| title_full | National COVID-19 lockdown and trends in help-seeking for violence against children in Zimbabwe: an interrupted time-series analysis |
| title_fullStr | National COVID-19 lockdown and trends in help-seeking for violence against children in Zimbabwe: an interrupted time-series analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | National COVID-19 lockdown and trends in help-seeking for violence against children in Zimbabwe: an interrupted time-series analysis |
| title_short | National COVID-19 lockdown and trends in help-seeking for violence against children in Zimbabwe: an interrupted time-series analysis |
| title_sort | national covid 19 lockdown and trends in help seeking for violence against children in zimbabwe an interrupted time series analysis |
| topic | Violence Help-seeking Children COVID-19 lockdown Interrupted time series Autoregressive integrated moving average regression |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-14425-w |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ilancernaturoff nationalcovid19lockdownandtrendsinhelpseekingforviolenceagainstchildreninzimbabweaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT robertnyakuwa nationalcovid19lockdownandtrendsinhelpseekingforviolenceagainstchildreninzimbabweaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT ellenturner nationalcovid19lockdownandtrendsinhelpseekingforviolenceagainstchildreninzimbabweaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT charlesmuchemwanherera nationalcovid19lockdownandtrendsinhelpseekingforviolenceagainstchildreninzimbabweaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT tendainhengachakarisa nationalcovid19lockdownandtrendsinhelpseekingforviolenceagainstchildreninzimbabweaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis AT karendevries nationalcovid19lockdownandtrendsinhelpseekingforviolenceagainstchildreninzimbabweaninterruptedtimeseriesanalysis |