The Path of Terror Attacks
This paper derives a dynamic path of ongoing terror attacks as a function of terrorists’ capacity and a target government’s counterterror capacity. The analysis provides several novel insights and characterizations. First, the effect of counterterror policy is limited. Second, proactive counterterro...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-04-01
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| Series: | Games |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4336/12/2/35 |
| _version_ | 1827695178731749376 |
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| author | João Ricardo Faria Daniel Arce |
| author_facet | João Ricardo Faria Daniel Arce |
| author_sort | João Ricardo Faria |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper derives a dynamic path of ongoing terror attacks as a function of terrorists’ capacity and a target government’s counterterror capacity. The analysis provides several novel insights and characterizations. First, the effect of counterterror policy is limited. Second, proactive counterterror policy affects the depreciation (fatigue) of terrorists’ capacity, and defensive counterterror policy limits the worst-case scenario. Third, fluctuations in the time path of attacks are a function of terrorists’ time preferences and adjustment costs of changing tactics, which are policy invariant. Indeed, in our model, the oscillations of terror attacks occur irrespective of the government’s counterterror stance. Fourth, collective action inefficiencies associated with the underprovision of proactive counterterror policies and overprovision of defensive ones are further exacerbated by our finding that proactive counterterror policy is the more effective of the two. Hence, the more effective policy is underprovided. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T12:20:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0c0cf485b2044377843c2e534f5e2b11 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4336 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T12:20:52Z |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Games |
| spelling | doaj.art-0c0cf485b2044377843c2e534f5e2b112023-11-21T15:25:59ZengMDPI AGGames2073-43362021-04-011223510.3390/g12020035The Path of Terror AttacksJoão Ricardo Faria0Daniel Arce1Department of Economics, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL 33431, USAEconomics Program, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, USAThis paper derives a dynamic path of ongoing terror attacks as a function of terrorists’ capacity and a target government’s counterterror capacity. The analysis provides several novel insights and characterizations. First, the effect of counterterror policy is limited. Second, proactive counterterror policy affects the depreciation (fatigue) of terrorists’ capacity, and defensive counterterror policy limits the worst-case scenario. Third, fluctuations in the time path of attacks are a function of terrorists’ time preferences and adjustment costs of changing tactics, which are policy invariant. Indeed, in our model, the oscillations of terror attacks occur irrespective of the government’s counterterror stance. Fourth, collective action inefficiencies associated with the underprovision of proactive counterterror policies and overprovision of defensive ones are further exacerbated by our finding that proactive counterterror policy is the more effective of the two. Hence, the more effective policy is underprovided.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4336/12/2/35terror cyclesterror pathscounterterror policyconflict dynamicsasymmetric conflict |
| spellingShingle | João Ricardo Faria Daniel Arce The Path of Terror Attacks Games terror cycles terror paths counterterror policy conflict dynamics asymmetric conflict |
| title | The Path of Terror Attacks |
| title_full | The Path of Terror Attacks |
| title_fullStr | The Path of Terror Attacks |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Path of Terror Attacks |
| title_short | The Path of Terror Attacks |
| title_sort | path of terror attacks |
| topic | terror cycles terror paths counterterror policy conflict dynamics asymmetric conflict |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4336/12/2/35 |
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