Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity
Abstract Global warming is expected to exacerbate heat stress. Additionally, biogeophysical effects of land cover and land management changes (LCLMC) could substantially alter temperature and relative humidity locally and non‐locally. Thereby, LCLMC could affect the occupational capacity to safely p...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002909 |
| _version_ | 1797393173712994304 |
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| author | Anton Orlov Steven DeHertog Felix Havermann Suqi Guo Fei Luo Iris Manola Wim Thiery Quentin Lejeune Julia Pongratz Florian Humpenöder Michael Windisch Shruti Nath Alexander Popp Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner |
| author_facet | Anton Orlov Steven DeHertog Felix Havermann Suqi Guo Fei Luo Iris Manola Wim Thiery Quentin Lejeune Julia Pongratz Florian Humpenöder Michael Windisch Shruti Nath Alexander Popp Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner |
| author_sort | Anton Orlov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Global warming is expected to exacerbate heat stress. Additionally, biogeophysical effects of land cover and land management changes (LCLMC) could substantially alter temperature and relative humidity locally and non‐locally. Thereby, LCLMC could affect the occupational capacity to safely perform physical work under hot environments (labor capacity). However, these effects have never been quantified globally using a multi‐model setup. Building on results from stylized sensitivity experiments of (a) cropland expansion, (b) irrigation expansion, and (c) afforestation conducted by three fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs), we assess the local as well as non‐local effects on heat stress and labor capacity. We found that LCLMC leads to substantial changes in temperature; however, the concomitant changes in humidity could largely diminish the combined impact on moist heat. Moreover, cropland expansion and afforestation cause inconsistent responses of day‐ and night‐time temperature, which has strong implications for labor capacity. Across the ESMs, the results are mixed in terms of sign and magnitude. Overall, LCLMC result in non‐negligible impacts on heat stress and labor capacity in low‐latitude regions during the warmest seasons. In some locations, the changes of monthly average labor capacity, which are induced by the local effects of individual LCLMC options, could reach −14 and +15 percentage points. Thus, LCLMC‐induced impacts on heat stress and their consequences for adaptation should be accounted for when designing LCLMC‐related policies to ensure sustainable development. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T23:58:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0c159655dacb45a8bfa84c4f69e16814 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T23:58:21Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-0c159655dacb45a8bfa84c4f69e168142023-12-12T22:51:52ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772023-03-01113n/an/a10.1029/2022EF002909Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor CapacityAnton Orlov0Steven DeHertog1Felix Havermann2Suqi Guo3Fei Luo4Iris Manola5Wim Thiery6Quentin Lejeune7Julia Pongratz8Florian Humpenöder9Michael Windisch10Shruti Nath11Alexander Popp12Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner13Center for International Climate Research Oslo NorwayDepartment of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels BelgiumDepartment of Geography Ludwig Maximilian University Munich Munich GermanyDepartment of Geography Ludwig Maximilian University Munich Munich GermanyInstitute for Environmental studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Amsterdam The NetherlandsInstitute for Environmental studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Amsterdam The NetherlandsDepartment of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels BelgiumClimate Analytics Berlin GermanyDepartment of Geography Ludwig Maximilian University Munich Munich GermanyClimate Analytics Berlin GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam GermanyClimate Analytics Berlin GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam GermanyClimate Analytics Berlin GermanyAbstract Global warming is expected to exacerbate heat stress. Additionally, biogeophysical effects of land cover and land management changes (LCLMC) could substantially alter temperature and relative humidity locally and non‐locally. Thereby, LCLMC could affect the occupational capacity to safely perform physical work under hot environments (labor capacity). However, these effects have never been quantified globally using a multi‐model setup. Building on results from stylized sensitivity experiments of (a) cropland expansion, (b) irrigation expansion, and (c) afforestation conducted by three fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs), we assess the local as well as non‐local effects on heat stress and labor capacity. We found that LCLMC leads to substantial changes in temperature; however, the concomitant changes in humidity could largely diminish the combined impact on moist heat. Moreover, cropland expansion and afforestation cause inconsistent responses of day‐ and night‐time temperature, which has strong implications for labor capacity. Across the ESMs, the results are mixed in terms of sign and magnitude. Overall, LCLMC result in non‐negligible impacts on heat stress and labor capacity in low‐latitude regions during the warmest seasons. In some locations, the changes of monthly average labor capacity, which are induced by the local effects of individual LCLMC options, could reach −14 and +15 percentage points. Thus, LCLMC‐induced impacts on heat stress and their consequences for adaptation should be accounted for when designing LCLMC‐related policies to ensure sustainable development.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002909land coverland managementheat stresslabor capacitylabor productivitysustainability |
| spellingShingle | Anton Orlov Steven DeHertog Felix Havermann Suqi Guo Fei Luo Iris Manola Wim Thiery Quentin Lejeune Julia Pongratz Florian Humpenöder Michael Windisch Shruti Nath Alexander Popp Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity Earth's Future land cover land management heat stress labor capacity labor productivity sustainability |
| title | Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity |
| title_full | Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity |
| title_fullStr | Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity |
| title_short | Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity |
| title_sort | changes in land cover and management affect heat stress and labor capacity |
| topic | land cover land management heat stress labor capacity labor productivity sustainability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002909 |
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