Implications of a Paris-proof scenario for future supply of weather-dependent variable renewable energy in Europe
To meet the European Union's 2050 climate neutrality target, future electricity generation is expected to largely rely on variable renewable energy (VRE). VRE supply, being dependant on weather, is susceptible to changing climate conditions. Based on spatiotemporally explicit climate data under...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Advances in Applied Energy |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792423000136 |
| _version_ | 1797807153016209408 |
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| author | Jing Hu Vinzenz Koning Thomas Bosshard Robert Harmsen Wina Crijns-Graus Ernst Worrell Machteld van den Broek |
| author_facet | Jing Hu Vinzenz Koning Thomas Bosshard Robert Harmsen Wina Crijns-Graus Ernst Worrell Machteld van den Broek |
| author_sort | Jing Hu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To meet the European Union's 2050 climate neutrality target, future electricity generation is expected to largely rely on variable renewable energy (VRE). VRE supply, being dependant on weather, is susceptible to changing climate conditions. Based on spatiotemporally explicit climate data under a Paris-proof climate scenario and a comprehensive energy conversion model, this study assesses the projected changes of European VRE supply from the perspective of average production, production variability, spatiotemporal complementarity, and risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts.For the period 2045–2055, we find a minor reduction in average wind and solar production for most of Europe compared to the period 1990–2010. At the country level, the impact of climate change on average VRE production is rather limited in magnitude (within ±3% for wind and ±2% for solar). The projected mid-term changes in other aspects of VRE supply are also relatively small. This suggests climate-related impacts on European VRE supply are less of a concern if the Paris-proof emission reduction pathway is strictly followed.Based on spectral analysis, we identify strong seasonal wind-solar complementarities (with an anticorrelation between -0.6 and -0.9) at the cross-regional level. This reduces the demand for seasonal storage but requires coordinated cross-border efforts to develop a pan-European transmission infrastructure.The risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts between a country and the rest of Europe remains non-negligible, even under the copperplate assumption. Central Western European countries and Poland are most vulnerable to such risk, suggesting the need for the planning of adequate flexibility resources. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:18:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0c24335fb1664213979967fa0f242386 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-7924 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T06:18:16Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Applied Energy |
| spelling | doaj.art-0c24335fb1664213979967fa0f2423862023-06-10T04:28:44ZengElsevierAdvances in Applied Energy2666-79242023-06-0110100134Implications of a Paris-proof scenario for future supply of weather-dependent variable renewable energy in EuropeJing Hu0Vinzenz Koning1Thomas Bosshard2Robert Harmsen3Wina Crijns-Graus4Ernst Worrell5Machteld van den Broek6Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands; Corresponding author.Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands; Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Minnaertgebouw, Leuvenlaan 4, 3584 CE Utrecht, , The NetherlandsSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen, 601 76 Norrköping, SwedenCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The NetherlandsCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The NetherlandsCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The NetherlandsFaculty of Science and Engineering, University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 9, 9747 AG Groningen, The NetherlandsTo meet the European Union's 2050 climate neutrality target, future electricity generation is expected to largely rely on variable renewable energy (VRE). VRE supply, being dependant on weather, is susceptible to changing climate conditions. Based on spatiotemporally explicit climate data under a Paris-proof climate scenario and a comprehensive energy conversion model, this study assesses the projected changes of European VRE supply from the perspective of average production, production variability, spatiotemporal complementarity, and risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts.For the period 2045–2055, we find a minor reduction in average wind and solar production for most of Europe compared to the period 1990–2010. At the country level, the impact of climate change on average VRE production is rather limited in magnitude (within ±3% for wind and ±2% for solar). The projected mid-term changes in other aspects of VRE supply are also relatively small. This suggests climate-related impacts on European VRE supply are less of a concern if the Paris-proof emission reduction pathway is strictly followed.Based on spectral analysis, we identify strong seasonal wind-solar complementarities (with an anticorrelation between -0.6 and -0.9) at the cross-regional level. This reduces the demand for seasonal storage but requires coordinated cross-border efforts to develop a pan-European transmission infrastructure.The risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts between a country and the rest of Europe remains non-negligible, even under the copperplate assumption. Central Western European countries and Poland are most vulnerable to such risk, suggesting the need for the planning of adequate flexibility resources.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792423000136EnergyRenewable energyClimate changeParis AgreementWindSolar |
| spellingShingle | Jing Hu Vinzenz Koning Thomas Bosshard Robert Harmsen Wina Crijns-Graus Ernst Worrell Machteld van den Broek Implications of a Paris-proof scenario for future supply of weather-dependent variable renewable energy in Europe Advances in Applied Energy Energy Renewable energy Climate change Paris Agreement Wind Solar |
| title | Implications of a Paris-proof scenario for future supply of weather-dependent variable renewable energy in Europe |
| title_full | Implications of a Paris-proof scenario for future supply of weather-dependent variable renewable energy in Europe |
| title_fullStr | Implications of a Paris-proof scenario for future supply of weather-dependent variable renewable energy in Europe |
| title_full_unstemmed | Implications of a Paris-proof scenario for future supply of weather-dependent variable renewable energy in Europe |
| title_short | Implications of a Paris-proof scenario for future supply of weather-dependent variable renewable energy in Europe |
| title_sort | implications of a paris proof scenario for future supply of weather dependent variable renewable energy in europe |
| topic | Energy Renewable energy Climate change Paris Agreement Wind Solar |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792423000136 |
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