An Index for Snowmelt-Induced Landslide Prediction for Zavoj Lake, Serbia
In February 1963, a huge landslide (ca. 1,950,000 m<sup>3</sup>) blocked the Visočica River and, thus, formed Zavoj Lake. The primary objective of this research was to investigate the importance of snowmelt in relation to landslide occurrence and to define the critical climatic condition...
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MDPI AG
2024-02-01
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/256 |
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| author | Rastko Marković Manfred Mudelsee Milica G. Radaković Aleksandar R. Radivojević Randall J. Schaetzl Biljana Basarin Jugoslav Nikolić Slobodan B. Marković Velibor Spalević Aleksandar Antić Miloš Marjanović Tin Lukić |
| author_facet | Rastko Marković Manfred Mudelsee Milica G. Radaković Aleksandar R. Radivojević Randall J. Schaetzl Biljana Basarin Jugoslav Nikolić Slobodan B. Marković Velibor Spalević Aleksandar Antić Miloš Marjanović Tin Lukić |
| author_sort | Rastko Marković |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In February 1963, a huge landslide (ca. 1,950,000 m<sup>3</sup>) blocked the Visočica River and, thus, formed Zavoj Lake. The primary objective of this research was to investigate the importance of snowmelt in relation to landslide occurrence and to define the critical climatic conditions that may trigger massive winter landslides. We used monthly precipitation and average monthly maximum temperature data from meteorological and precipitation stations in the Visočica River basin (Dojkinci) and in the immediate proximity of Lake Zavoj (Pirot, Dimitrovgrad and Topli Do) as data inputs to the Snow-Melt Landslide (SML) index. It considers the summed monthly precipitation for previous months that continuously have an average maximum temperature below 0 °C. According to this method, the event at Zavoj Lake stands out among all other precipitation and snowmelt values for the past 72 years. After applying the SML index, all stations showed values of >300 mm for February 1963, which we consider as the threshold value for potential landslides appearance. In addition to meteorological data, we applied the SML index to data from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate model outputs for the region from 2022 to 2100. As expected, climate change will have influenced the temperature values, especially during the winter. Conversely, the study area is experiencing drastic changes in land use caused by depopulation, leading to a reduced risk of winter landslides in the Visočica basin. We suggest that future climatic conditions in the area will make it more likely to experience extreme summer precipitation events, which might trigger large landslides. The SML method can be implemented for all landscapes that experience snowy winters, providing information in a timely manner so that local residents can react properly when the probability of landslide occurrence rises. The SML index, grounded in essential meteorological principles, provides a tailor-made, data-driven methodology applicable across varied geographical settings. Its utility extends to mitigating hydro-meteorological hazards on scales ranging from local to national scales, offering diverse and effective early warning solutions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:34:01Z |
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| id | doaj.art-0c2a7d7d60e348c2b9ba3226780d71e8 |
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| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T18:34:01Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
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| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-0c2a7d7d60e348c2b9ba3226780d71e82024-03-27T13:20:30ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-02-0115325610.3390/atmos15030256An Index for Snowmelt-Induced Landslide Prediction for Zavoj Lake, SerbiaRastko Marković0Manfred Mudelsee1Milica G. Radaković2Aleksandar R. Radivojević3Randall J. Schaetzl4Biljana Basarin5Jugoslav Nikolić6Slobodan B. Marković7Velibor Spalević8Aleksandar Antić9Miloš Marjanović10Tin Lukić11Department for Geography, Faculty of Sciences, University of Niš, Višegradska 33, 18000 Niš, SerbiaClimate Risk Analysis, Kreuzstrasse 27, 37581 Bad Gandersheim, GermanyDepartment of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaDepartment for Geography, Faculty of Sciences, University of Niš, Višegradska 33, 18000 Niš, SerbiaDepartment of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences, Michigan State University, 673 Auditorium Drive, East Lansing, MI 48824, USADepartment of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaRepublic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, Kneza Višeslava 66, 11030 Belgrade, SerbiaDepartment of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaBiotechnical Faculty, University of Montenegro, Mihaila Lalića 15, 81000 Podgorica, MontenegroDepartment of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaDepartment of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaDepartment of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaIn February 1963, a huge landslide (ca. 1,950,000 m<sup>3</sup>) blocked the Visočica River and, thus, formed Zavoj Lake. The primary objective of this research was to investigate the importance of snowmelt in relation to landslide occurrence and to define the critical climatic conditions that may trigger massive winter landslides. We used monthly precipitation and average monthly maximum temperature data from meteorological and precipitation stations in the Visočica River basin (Dojkinci) and in the immediate proximity of Lake Zavoj (Pirot, Dimitrovgrad and Topli Do) as data inputs to the Snow-Melt Landslide (SML) index. It considers the summed monthly precipitation for previous months that continuously have an average maximum temperature below 0 °C. According to this method, the event at Zavoj Lake stands out among all other precipitation and snowmelt values for the past 72 years. After applying the SML index, all stations showed values of >300 mm for February 1963, which we consider as the threshold value for potential landslides appearance. In addition to meteorological data, we applied the SML index to data from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate model outputs for the region from 2022 to 2100. As expected, climate change will have influenced the temperature values, especially during the winter. Conversely, the study area is experiencing drastic changes in land use caused by depopulation, leading to a reduced risk of winter landslides in the Visočica basin. We suggest that future climatic conditions in the area will make it more likely to experience extreme summer precipitation events, which might trigger large landslides. The SML method can be implemented for all landscapes that experience snowy winters, providing information in a timely manner so that local residents can react properly when the probability of landslide occurrence rises. The SML index, grounded in essential meteorological principles, provides a tailor-made, data-driven methodology applicable across varied geographical settings. Its utility extends to mitigating hydro-meteorological hazards on scales ranging from local to national scales, offering diverse and effective early warning solutions.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/256SML indexVisočica RiverclimateStara Planina (Balkan Mountains)CORDEX regional climate modelsnow accumulation |
| spellingShingle | Rastko Marković Manfred Mudelsee Milica G. Radaković Aleksandar R. Radivojević Randall J. Schaetzl Biljana Basarin Jugoslav Nikolić Slobodan B. Marković Velibor Spalević Aleksandar Antić Miloš Marjanović Tin Lukić An Index for Snowmelt-Induced Landslide Prediction for Zavoj Lake, Serbia Atmosphere SML index Visočica River climate Stara Planina (Balkan Mountains) CORDEX regional climate model snow accumulation |
| title | An Index for Snowmelt-Induced Landslide Prediction for Zavoj Lake, Serbia |
| title_full | An Index for Snowmelt-Induced Landslide Prediction for Zavoj Lake, Serbia |
| title_fullStr | An Index for Snowmelt-Induced Landslide Prediction for Zavoj Lake, Serbia |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Index for Snowmelt-Induced Landslide Prediction for Zavoj Lake, Serbia |
| title_short | An Index for Snowmelt-Induced Landslide Prediction for Zavoj Lake, Serbia |
| title_sort | index for snowmelt induced landslide prediction for zavoj lake serbia |
| topic | SML index Visočica River climate Stara Planina (Balkan Mountains) CORDEX regional climate model snow accumulation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/3/256 |
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