Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014
Phenology is primarily seen as an indicator of the impacts of climate change. The strongest biological signal of climatic change is revealed by phenological data from the period after 1990. Unfortunately, the Polish nationwide network of phenological monitoring was terminated in 1992, and was only r...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Polish Botanical Society
2016-06-01
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| Series: | Acta Agrobotanica |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://pbsociety.org.pl/journals/index.php/aa/article/view/6605 |
| _version_ | 1818205353394831360 |
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| author | Bartosz Czernecki Katarzyna Jabłońska |
| author_facet | Bartosz Czernecki Katarzyna Jabłońska |
| author_sort | Bartosz Czernecki |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Phenology is primarily seen as an indicator of the impacts of climate change. The strongest biological signal of climatic change is revealed by phenological data from the period after 1990. Unfortunately, the Polish nationwide network of phenological monitoring was terminated in 1992, and was only reactivated in 2005. Here, we attempt to reconstruct late spring phenophases of flowering of Syringa vulgaris L. and Aesculus hippocastanum L. across several sites in Poland from 1951 to 2014 using the GIS-based approach (if observations from neighboring stations were available) and multiple regression modeling with stepwise screening and bootstrap resampling. It was found that the air temperature and its indices explain over 60% of the variance, giving an accuracy of 3.0–3.4 days (mean absolute error) and correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.78 for lilac and horse chestnut, respectively. Altogether, both plant species showed a statistically significant advancement in the onset of flowering with an average rate of 1.7 days per decade. We also found that the final trend is the result of rapid acceleration of the increase in air temperature after the 1990s, while most of the trends for late spring were ambiguous before that period. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T03:55:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0ca10f704c7f4f97a8dee2e329d02e7f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2300-357X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T03:55:47Z |
| publishDate | 2016-06-01 |
| publisher | Polish Botanical Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Acta Agrobotanica |
| spelling | doaj.art-0ca10f704c7f4f97a8dee2e329d02e7f2022-12-22T00:39:14ZengPolish Botanical SocietyActa Agrobotanica2300-357X2016-06-0169210.5586/aa.16715664Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014Bartosz Czernecki0Katarzyna Jabłońska1Department of Climatology, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, Dzięgielowa 27, 61-680 PoznańDepartment of Air Pollution Modelling, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute, Podleśna 61, 01-673 WarsawPhenology is primarily seen as an indicator of the impacts of climate change. The strongest biological signal of climatic change is revealed by phenological data from the period after 1990. Unfortunately, the Polish nationwide network of phenological monitoring was terminated in 1992, and was only reactivated in 2005. Here, we attempt to reconstruct late spring phenophases of flowering of Syringa vulgaris L. and Aesculus hippocastanum L. across several sites in Poland from 1951 to 2014 using the GIS-based approach (if observations from neighboring stations were available) and multiple regression modeling with stepwise screening and bootstrap resampling. It was found that the air temperature and its indices explain over 60% of the variance, giving an accuracy of 3.0–3.4 days (mean absolute error) and correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.78 for lilac and horse chestnut, respectively. Altogether, both plant species showed a statistically significant advancement in the onset of flowering with an average rate of 1.7 days per decade. We also found that the final trend is the result of rapid acceleration of the increase in air temperature after the 1990s, while most of the trends for late spring were ambiguous before that period.https://pbsociety.org.pl/journals/index.php/aa/article/view/6605climate changeplant phenologyphenology modelingphenological reconstructionSyringa vulgarisAesculus hippocastanumPoland |
| spellingShingle | Bartosz Czernecki Katarzyna Jabłońska Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014 Acta Agrobotanica climate change plant phenology phenology modeling phenological reconstruction Syringa vulgaris Aesculus hippocastanum Poland |
| title | Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014 |
| title_full | Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014 |
| title_fullStr | Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014 |
| title_short | Reconstruction of late spring phenophases in Poland and their response to climate change, 1951–2014 |
| title_sort | reconstruction of late spring phenophases in poland and their response to climate change 1951 2014 |
| topic | climate change plant phenology phenology modeling phenological reconstruction Syringa vulgaris Aesculus hippocastanum Poland |
| url | https://pbsociety.org.pl/journals/index.php/aa/article/view/6605 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bartoszczernecki reconstructionoflatespringphenophasesinpolandandtheirresponsetoclimatechange19512014 AT katarzynajabłonska reconstructionoflatespringphenophasesinpolandandtheirresponsetoclimatechange19512014 |