Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios
International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO _2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural ga...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3 |
| _version_ | 1797747433207234560 |
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| author | Robert Fofrich Dan Tong Katherine Calvin Harmen Sytze De Boer Johannes Emmerling Oliver Fricko Shinichiro Fujimori Gunnar Luderer Joeri Rogelj Steven J Davis |
| author_facet | Robert Fofrich Dan Tong Katherine Calvin Harmen Sytze De Boer Johannes Emmerling Oliver Fricko Shinichiro Fujimori Gunnar Luderer Joeri Rogelj Steven J Davis |
| author_sort | Robert Fofrich |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO _2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO _2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0ca5f5d2059a4fe78b0a4fa3fb7cb791 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:50:30Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-0ca5f5d2059a4fe78b0a4fa3fb7cb7912023-08-09T15:09:08ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115909406410.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenariosRobert Fofrich0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6418-3692Dan Tong1Katherine Calvin2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2191-4189Harmen Sytze De Boer3Johannes Emmerling4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0916-9913Oliver Fricko5Shinichiro Fujimori6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796Gunnar Luderer7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9057-6155Joeri Rogelj8https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061Steven J Davis9https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9338-0844Department of Earth System Science, University of California at Irvine , Irvine, CA, United States of AmericaDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California at Irvine , Irvine, CA, United States of AmericaJoint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , College Park, MD, United States of AmericaPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency , 2594 AV The Hague, The Netherlands; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University , Utrecht, The NetherlandsRFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici , Via Bergognone 34, I-20144 Milan, ItalyEnergy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , 2361, Laxenburg, AustriaEnergy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , 2361, Laxenburg, Austria; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) , Tsukuba, Japan; Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University , Nishikyo-ku, JapanPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association , Potsdam, Germany; Chair of Global Energy Systems, Technische Universität Berlin , Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, GermanyEnergy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , 2361, Laxenburg, Austria; Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London , London, United KingdomDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California at Irvine , Irvine, CA, United States of America; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California at Irvine , Irvine, CA, United States of AmericaInternational efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO _2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO _2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3climate changeenergy systemspower plantsrepresentative concentration pathwaysintegrated assessment modelshared socioeconomic pathways |
| spellingShingle | Robert Fofrich Dan Tong Katherine Calvin Harmen Sytze De Boer Johannes Emmerling Oliver Fricko Shinichiro Fujimori Gunnar Luderer Joeri Rogelj Steven J Davis Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios Environmental Research Letters climate change energy systems power plants representative concentration pathways integrated assessment model shared socioeconomic pathways |
| title | Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios |
| title_full | Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios |
| title_short | Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios |
| title_sort | early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios |
| topic | climate change energy systems power plants representative concentration pathways integrated assessment model shared socioeconomic pathways |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3 |
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