Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex
Theoretical and applied aspects of scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises in the mineral resource sector of the economy are considered, its advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. Taking into account the organizational and economic features of mineral resources management, a numb...
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| 格式: | 文件 |
| 语言: | English |
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Saint-Petersburg Mining University
2023-02-01
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| 丛编: | Записки Горного института |
| 主题: | |
| 在线阅读: | https://pmi.spmi.ru/index.php/pmi/article/view/15829?setLocale=en_US |
| _version_ | 1827822664899624960 |
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| author | Kristina V. Matrokhina Valeriy Ya. Trofimets Evgeniy B. Mazakov Aleksei B. Makhovikov Mark M. Khaykin |
| author_facet | Kristina V. Matrokhina Valeriy Ya. Trofimets Evgeniy B. Mazakov Aleksei B. Makhovikov Mark M. Khaykin |
| author_sort | Kristina V. Matrokhina |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Theoretical and applied aspects of scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises in the mineral resource sector of the economy are considered, its advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. Taking into account the organizational and economic features of mineral resources management, a number of new modifications of the scenario analysis method, aimed at solving an urgent problem - reducing the information uncertainty in assessing the expected efficiency and risk of investment projects, are proposed. The peculiarity of the proposed new modifications is the use of the interval-probabilistic approach in the implementation of the scenario analysis procedure. This approach is based on a moderately pessimistic system of preferences in obtaining point values of the investment project initial parameters. Fishburn estimates and the hierarchy analysis method were used to reduce subjective uncertainty. The maximum likelihood values in the sense of the maximum a priori probability are used as expected estimates. An additional indicator of risk assessment, which characterizes the probability of the event that the net present value of the project will take a value less than the specified one, is proposed. When analyzing one project, this indicator is more informative than the standard deviation. A statistical hypothesis was tested on the improvement of the validity of investment decisions developed using the modified scenario analysis method compared to the standard method. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T02:00:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0ce23b2836064b9999d7d8e6bc928fdb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2411-3336 2541-9404 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T02:00:54Z |
| publishDate | 2023-02-01 |
| publisher | Saint-Petersburg Mining University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Записки Горного института |
| spelling | doaj.art-0ce23b2836064b9999d7d8e6bc928fdb2023-09-07T13:01:00ZengSaint-Petersburg Mining UniversityЗаписки Горного института2411-33362541-94042023-02-0125911212410.31897/PMI.2023.315829Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complexKristina V. Matrokhina0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5377-3013Valeriy Ya. Trofimets1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6873-6642Evgeniy B. Mazakov2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4837-3191Aleksei B. Makhovikov3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6306-2060Mark M. Khaykin4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8199-4048Saint Petersburg Mining UniversitySaint Petersburg Mining UniversitySaint Petersburg Mining UniversitySaint Petersburg Mining UniversitySaint Petersburg Mining UniversityTheoretical and applied aspects of scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises in the mineral resource sector of the economy are considered, its advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. Taking into account the organizational and economic features of mineral resources management, a number of new modifications of the scenario analysis method, aimed at solving an urgent problem - reducing the information uncertainty in assessing the expected efficiency and risk of investment projects, are proposed. The peculiarity of the proposed new modifications is the use of the interval-probabilistic approach in the implementation of the scenario analysis procedure. This approach is based on a moderately pessimistic system of preferences in obtaining point values of the investment project initial parameters. Fishburn estimates and the hierarchy analysis method were used to reduce subjective uncertainty. The maximum likelihood values in the sense of the maximum a priori probability are used as expected estimates. An additional indicator of risk assessment, which characterizes the probability of the event that the net present value of the project will take a value less than the specified one, is proposed. When analyzing one project, this indicator is more informative than the standard deviation. A statistical hypothesis was tested on the improvement of the validity of investment decisions developed using the modified scenario analysis method compared to the standard method.https://pmi.spmi.ru/index.php/pmi/article/view/15829?setLocale=en_USsphere and subjects of subsoil useinvestment decisioninvestment projectscenario analysis methodprobabilistic uncertaintyinterval uncertaintyfishburn estimateshierarchy analysis method |
| spellingShingle | Kristina V. Matrokhina Valeriy Ya. Trofimets Evgeniy B. Mazakov Aleksei B. Makhovikov Mark M. Khaykin Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex Записки Горного института sphere and subjects of subsoil use investment decision investment project scenario analysis method probabilistic uncertainty interval uncertainty fishburn estimates hierarchy analysis method |
| title | Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex |
| title_full | Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex |
| title_fullStr | Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex |
| title_short | Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex |
| title_sort | development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex |
| topic | sphere and subjects of subsoil use investment decision investment project scenario analysis method probabilistic uncertainty interval uncertainty fishburn estimates hierarchy analysis method |
| url | https://pmi.spmi.ru/index.php/pmi/article/view/15829?setLocale=en_US |
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