Sea level rise projections up to 2150 in the northern Mediterranean coasts
Vertical land movements (VLM) play a crucial role in affecting the sea level rise along the coasts. They need to be estimated and included in the analysis for more accurate Sea Level (SL) projections. Here we focus on the Mediterranean basin characterized by spatially variable rates of VLM that affe...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad127e |
| _version_ | 1827580143036530688 |
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| author | A Vecchio M Anzidei E Serpelloni |
| author_facet | A Vecchio M Anzidei E Serpelloni |
| author_sort | A Vecchio |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Vertical land movements (VLM) play a crucial role in affecting the sea level rise along the coasts. They need to be estimated and included in the analysis for more accurate Sea Level (SL) projections. Here we focus on the Mediterranean basin characterized by spatially variable rates of VLM that affect the future SL along the coasts. To estimate the VLM rates we used geodetic data from continuous global navigation satellite system stations with time series longer than 4.5 years in the 1996–2023 interval, belonging to Euro-Mediterranean networks and located within 5 km from the coast. Revised SL projections up to the year 2150 are provided at 265 points on a geographical grid and at the locations of 51 tide gauges of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, by including the estimated VLM in the SL projections released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the AR6 Report. Results show that the IPCC projections underestimate future SL along the coasts of the Mediterranean Sea since the effects of tectonics and other local factors were not properly considered. Here we show that revised SL projections at 2100, when compared to the IPCC, show a maximum and minimum differences of 1094 ± 103 mm and −773 ± 106 mm, respectively, with an average value that exceeds by about 80 mm that of the IPCC in the reference Shared Socio-economic Pathways and different global warming levels. Finally, the projections indicate that about 19.000 km ^2 of the considered Mediterranean coasts will be more exposed to risk of inundation for the next decades, leading to enhanced impacts on the environment, human activities and infrastructures, thus suggesting the need for concrete actions to support vulnerable populations to adapt to the expected SL rise and coastal hazards by the end of this century. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:13:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0d021dbb9cdc4fc59d29a96dd91c963d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T22:13:55Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-0d021dbb9cdc4fc59d29a96dd91c963d2023-12-19T05:20:38ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0119101405010.1088/1748-9326/ad127eSea level rise projections up to 2150 in the northern Mediterranean coastsA Vecchio0M Anzidei1E Serpelloni2Radboud Radio Lab, Department of Astrophysics, Radboud University , Nijmegen, The Netherlands; LESIA, Observatoire de Paris, Université PSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Université de Paris , Meudon, France; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia , Rome, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia , Rome, ItalyIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia , Bologna, ItalyVertical land movements (VLM) play a crucial role in affecting the sea level rise along the coasts. They need to be estimated and included in the analysis for more accurate Sea Level (SL) projections. Here we focus on the Mediterranean basin characterized by spatially variable rates of VLM that affect the future SL along the coasts. To estimate the VLM rates we used geodetic data from continuous global navigation satellite system stations with time series longer than 4.5 years in the 1996–2023 interval, belonging to Euro-Mediterranean networks and located within 5 km from the coast. Revised SL projections up to the year 2150 are provided at 265 points on a geographical grid and at the locations of 51 tide gauges of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, by including the estimated VLM in the SL projections released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the AR6 Report. Results show that the IPCC projections underestimate future SL along the coasts of the Mediterranean Sea since the effects of tectonics and other local factors were not properly considered. Here we show that revised SL projections at 2100, when compared to the IPCC, show a maximum and minimum differences of 1094 ± 103 mm and −773 ± 106 mm, respectively, with an average value that exceeds by about 80 mm that of the IPCC in the reference Shared Socio-economic Pathways and different global warming levels. Finally, the projections indicate that about 19.000 km ^2 of the considered Mediterranean coasts will be more exposed to risk of inundation for the next decades, leading to enhanced impacts on the environment, human activities and infrastructures, thus suggesting the need for concrete actions to support vulnerable populations to adapt to the expected SL rise and coastal hazards by the end of this century.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad127eMediterranean seasea level rise projectionsvertical land movements |
| spellingShingle | A Vecchio M Anzidei E Serpelloni Sea level rise projections up to 2150 in the northern Mediterranean coasts Environmental Research Letters Mediterranean sea sea level rise projections vertical land movements |
| title | Sea level rise projections up to 2150 in the northern Mediterranean coasts |
| title_full | Sea level rise projections up to 2150 in the northern Mediterranean coasts |
| title_fullStr | Sea level rise projections up to 2150 in the northern Mediterranean coasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sea level rise projections up to 2150 in the northern Mediterranean coasts |
| title_short | Sea level rise projections up to 2150 in the northern Mediterranean coasts |
| title_sort | sea level rise projections up to 2150 in the northern mediterranean coasts |
| topic | Mediterranean sea sea level rise projections vertical land movements |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad127e |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT avecchio sealevelriseprojectionsupto2150inthenorthernmediterraneancoasts AT manzidei sealevelriseprojectionsupto2150inthenorthernmediterraneancoasts AT eserpelloni sealevelriseprojectionsupto2150inthenorthernmediterraneancoasts |