Applying ensemble climate models to predict the fate of marginal coral reefs already existing at thermal and turbidity limits in arid tropical Australia
Abstract Marine fauna, including coral reefs, exist under particular oceanographic and meteorological (metocean) processes that maintain water quality within the range limits to which they have adapted over millennia. Climate‐induced changes to these metocean processes could alter ambient marine wat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Climate Resilience and Sustainability |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.66 |
| _version_ | 1797291876825432064 |
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| author | Paula Cartwright Nicola Browne Peter Fearns Mick O'Leary Ryan Lowe |
| author_facet | Paula Cartwright Nicola Browne Peter Fearns Mick O'Leary Ryan Lowe |
| author_sort | Paula Cartwright |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Marine fauna, including coral reefs, exist under particular oceanographic and meteorological (metocean) processes that maintain water quality within the range limits to which they have adapted over millennia. Climate‐induced changes to these metocean processes could alter ambient marine water quality to ranges beyond those limits and at rates faster than species can adapt. Extreme (or marginal) coral reefs, such as those in arid tropical regions, already exist at the limits of their ranges for water quality parameters such as temperature and turbidity. Here, we apply projected anomalies from ensemble climate models to the metocean processes that drive turbidity in the Exmouth Gulf region of north Western Australia where habitats of significant environmental value exist. We also apply projected sea surface temperature anomalies to look at how a combined effect of turbidity and temperature might impact important habitats. We find that turbidity is predicted to increase in some parts of the Gulf and decrease in others due to differing metocean drivers of turbidity throughout the region. Temperature anomalies reveal year‐round increases in temperature consistent with current summer marine heat wave events (>2.5°C above mean temperatures). Climate models used in the predictions varied between themselves underscoring the importance of model choice and of using ensembles. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T19:44:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-0d0d54cf29484ce8b8e6ade0ba88bb20 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2692-4587 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T19:44:06Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Resilience and Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj.art-0d0d54cf29484ce8b8e6ade0ba88bb202024-02-29T04:34:39ZengWileyClimate Resilience and Sustainability2692-45872024-02-0131n/an/a10.1002/cli2.66Applying ensemble climate models to predict the fate of marginal coral reefs already existing at thermal and turbidity limits in arid tropical AustraliaPaula Cartwright0Nicola Browne1Peter Fearns2Mick O'Leary3Ryan Lowe4Centre for Tropical Water and Aquatic Ecosystems (TropWATER) James Cook University Townsville Queensland AustraliaSchool of Molecular and Life Sciences Curtin University Bentley Perth AustraliaCurtin Medical School Curtin University Bentley Perth AustraliaOceans Graduate School & UWA Oceans Institute The University of Western Australia Crawley Perth AustraliaOceans Graduate School & UWA Oceans Institute The University of Western Australia Crawley Perth AustraliaAbstract Marine fauna, including coral reefs, exist under particular oceanographic and meteorological (metocean) processes that maintain water quality within the range limits to which they have adapted over millennia. Climate‐induced changes to these metocean processes could alter ambient marine water quality to ranges beyond those limits and at rates faster than species can adapt. Extreme (or marginal) coral reefs, such as those in arid tropical regions, already exist at the limits of their ranges for water quality parameters such as temperature and turbidity. Here, we apply projected anomalies from ensemble climate models to the metocean processes that drive turbidity in the Exmouth Gulf region of north Western Australia where habitats of significant environmental value exist. We also apply projected sea surface temperature anomalies to look at how a combined effect of turbidity and temperature might impact important habitats. We find that turbidity is predicted to increase in some parts of the Gulf and decrease in others due to differing metocean drivers of turbidity throughout the region. Temperature anomalies reveal year‐round increases in temperature consistent with current summer marine heat wave events (>2.5°C above mean temperatures). Climate models used in the predictions varied between themselves underscoring the importance of model choice and of using ensembles.https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.66ensemble climate modelsExmouth Gulfmetocean processesturbid coral reefs |
| spellingShingle | Paula Cartwright Nicola Browne Peter Fearns Mick O'Leary Ryan Lowe Applying ensemble climate models to predict the fate of marginal coral reefs already existing at thermal and turbidity limits in arid tropical Australia Climate Resilience and Sustainability ensemble climate models Exmouth Gulf metocean processes turbid coral reefs |
| title | Applying ensemble climate models to predict the fate of marginal coral reefs already existing at thermal and turbidity limits in arid tropical Australia |
| title_full | Applying ensemble climate models to predict the fate of marginal coral reefs already existing at thermal and turbidity limits in arid tropical Australia |
| title_fullStr | Applying ensemble climate models to predict the fate of marginal coral reefs already existing at thermal and turbidity limits in arid tropical Australia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Applying ensemble climate models to predict the fate of marginal coral reefs already existing at thermal and turbidity limits in arid tropical Australia |
| title_short | Applying ensemble climate models to predict the fate of marginal coral reefs already existing at thermal and turbidity limits in arid tropical Australia |
| title_sort | applying ensemble climate models to predict the fate of marginal coral reefs already existing at thermal and turbidity limits in arid tropical australia |
| topic | ensemble climate models Exmouth Gulf metocean processes turbid coral reefs |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.66 |
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